IF NOT INDICTED BY FBI RE EMAIL ISSUE, HILLARY CLINTON LOOKS LIKE DEFEATING TRUMP BY A LANDSLIDE

  (Picture courtesy www.celebuzz.com)

After a three and half hour voluntary interview with FBI this weekend, it is still not clear whether  FBI would indict Hillary Clinton on the email issue. Pundits give it a 3% chance, but even 1% could come back to bite. Assuming there is no indictment, Hillary Clinton is running away with the prize. Trump is losing ground in all swing States even in some traditional Republican States.

The latest polls in 'Real Clear Politics' Blog present the following picture in swing States:

       State                                                            Clinton%           Trump%
     Pennsylvania                                                  46.0                   43.7
     Florida                                                            46.5                   42.8
     Ohio                                                                44.3                   41.8
     Virginia                                                           43.8                   39.8
     North Carolina                                                44.0                   43.3
     New Hampshire                                              44.5                   41.8
     Georgia                                                           40.8                   45.0

Trump leads in only one of these States and Georgia is not a true swing State as it traditionally votes Republican, except on certain occasions.

Trump will get a bump in the polls after Republican Convention in two weeks, however that bump will mostly be canceled out by Democratic Convention later. Also, President Obama is actively campaigning for Hillary Clinton. Currently he is sitting high on popularity levels and attracts many young voters.

An indictment by FBI could upset the whole apple cart, it could send Trump soaring in the polls, but it would also bring in new faces as candidates, some of whom like the Bloomberg, former Mayor of New York, could severely challenge Trump. An FBI decision should be coming down shortly.

CRUSHING OIL PRICES - DO NOT PUSH THE BEAR TO THE WALL. IN A DESPERATE MOVE, HE COULD RETALIATE & TURN OIL TAPS OFF TO WESTERN EUROPE, DESTROYING THEIR FRAGILE ECONOMIES AND IN TURN THE WORLD ECONOMY.

President Putin, picture courtesy Wikepedia.org

The decline of oil prices from $100 in mid 2014 to $57 now is no coincidence, nor does it have anything do with supply and demand as oil demand has certainly not halved in six months.

It is seriously suspected that oil prices are being manipulated by U.S. to crush Russia and to make them pay for re-possessing Crimea from Ukraine. When sanctions and all else failed, U.S. seems to have decided to hit Russia, where it hurts most - in the pocket. The Russian Ruble is in a free fall and despite a recent raise in Russian Central Bank rate from 10 to 17%, the Ruble is not even half its worth what it was a year ago.
According to some estimates, it is costing Russia around $70  a barrel to extract oil, if that is accurate, Russia is in net loss of $13 per barrel it produces and sells. This could hit Russian economy hard, inflation could sky rocket, post Soviet style bread lines could form again with possible loss of popularity for Putin from its current 85% level. And that is exactly what U.S. may be hoping to accomplish. Such a policy may have a short term impact, but long term, it could have a devastating effect on the world economy.
A desperate Putin with his back to the wall could adopt 'Destroy West' policy by turning off oil taps overnight to Western Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russian oil. The already fragile European economies will not be able to withstand such a shock and may go into recession or even a depression, which in turn would hit all the economies of the world, including that of the U.S. resulting in a 1930s style worldwide depression.
The Obama Administration needs to reign in its anti Russia hawks and think long and hard about the consequences such a policy. Better sense should prevail before the bear hits back with a vengeance.

Fiscal Cliff - Republican Party stops short of shooting itself in the foot.

President Obama wins showdown (photo courtesy The Daily Beast)

As the U.S. public (and world financial markets) watched in dismay, the Republican Party, held the whole country hostage till the very end, just to protect the top 2% earners in their country. The American voters must wonder, why they voted for such self serving politicians who only care about the lobbies that fill their election coffers.

In a deal struck earlier, between Vice President Joe Biden and Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell, Senate passed a bill with an overwhelming majority of 89-8 raising taxes an those earning over $400,000 ($450,000 for families), at the same time making tax cuts permanent for those under this threshold. The bill was passed around 2AM on January, 1.

The House of Representatives then took up the bill yesterday and after much shenanigans and dramatics keeping the country and world financial markets on the fiscal edge, passed the bill late in the evening with 1/3rd Republicans voting with the Democrats.

Thus one segment of fiscal cliff was averted. But it begs the question, why was this not done a month ago and why play these foolish games to the end? Republican Party's reputation has been much tarnished by these antics.

The main components of fiscal cliff i. e. spending cuts and debt ceiling still hang in the balance as deadline for those has been extended by two months. The sensible thing to do now, is for Republicans and Democrats to sit down with White House officials and come to an agreement on these issues during next couple of weeks and certainly well before the deadline so as to send a positive message to financial markets that common sense finally prevailed.

This is win for President Obama, who had committed in election campaign to raise taxes on the wealthy. Vice President Joe Biden has especially come out of  this smelling like roses. With his negotiating skills, he not only got Senate Republicans to support the bill, but he also pacified renegade members of his own party.
 

President Obama wins despite big money and big buisness stacked against him

(Photo courtesy The Daily Beast)

Karl Rove, Mitch McConnell, Donald Trump, Jack Welch, Pundits & Evangelical preachers - eat your hearts out.

President Obama won the re-election decisively. At the time of writing he has 309 delegates against Romney's 206. Florida's final tally has not been completed, if the President wins that too (which looks possible), his final tally will be 332.

Big money was riding on the election, by some estimates as much as $2.3 billion was spent on the Presidential race alone. Despite the fact that most that money and pundits were stacked against Obama, he still won and won big.

Karl Rove is a probably one of the shrewdest political operators in America. He successfully ran both campaigns for George W. Bush. His Superpac 'American Crossroads' is reported to have raised hundreds of millions of dollars, mainly for the purpose of defeating Obama and snatching back the Senate. He didn't defeat Obama and instead of gaining, Republicans ended up losing two seats in the Senate and a handful in the House. I guess Mr. Rove forgot that having been one of the closest advisers to President George W. Bush, he shared the blame for a disastrous Presidency, which botched the war in Iraq, unnecessarily prolonged Afghan war and at the same time gave tax cuts to the wealthy, leading to an economic disaster like none other since the depression.

The Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell must be nursing his wounds as he had openly declared to make Obama a one term President. In this ridiculous quest, he blocked virtually everything in the Senate that President Obama proposed. The cost to American public of these shenanigans has been heavy.

Donald Trump played the role of a joker, virtually challenging the President to a 'document duel'.  The person most ridiculed in all this is the former CEO of General Electric and one time respected executive, Jack Welch. He cut such a sorry figure berating Obama at every opportunity. Then there were the Corporate Executives who threatened their employees that they will lose their jobs if Obama won. Some Evangelical preachers too forbade their flock to vote for Obama.

However, all those efforts came to nothing. The American public is smart enough to figure things out and is not impressed by pundits, big money, big mouths or even preachers. They have shown political maturity in electing a President who was handed a destroyed economy and has since managed to pull it back from the brink despite severe obstructions by Republicans. Hopefully, the Republicans have learned a lesson and will cooperate with the President to tackle big economic challenges.

This is democracy in action.

US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTION, PRESIDENT OBAMA WINS

President Obama set to win 280 Electoral College votes to Romney's 256.

This is based on current trends of President Obama winning the sure Democratic States plus Ohio, New Hampshire and Colorado.

Florida is too close to call and is currently counted in Romney's column, However if President wins Florida, he will have additional 29 votes and Romney 29 less.

Did Hurricane Sandy Sweep Away Romney's Chances?

The picture says a thousand words. (Photo courtesy The Daily Beast)

President Obama discontinued his election campaign to become fully engaged in dealing with Hurricane Sandy, before during and after the storm. He looked very Presidential in his demeanor and conduct, earning high praise from the Republican Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie. Obama sent a message of confidence to the public that he is the leader to rely on during a crisis.

Former President George W. Bush's conduct during Hurricane Katrina was totally the opposite. He looked ill informed and incompetent. He became the laughing stock of late night comedians for  praising Brown, then head of FEMA (you are doing a great job Brownie), whereas Brown had done a disastrous job.

In all this, candidate Romney had to take a back seat and some of his earlier utterances came back to haunt him, when he said he would wind up FEMA, which has done a remarkable job this time around. Romney and Ryan have restarted their campaign today, but that may seem inappropriate to many as a large portion of population in New Jersey and New York is still suffering from the massive damage caused by the hurricane.

Hurricane Sandy may have swept away the outside chance Romney may have had of winning the Presidential election. However, it has created a new Republican leader in Chris Christie, who did a great job in this crisis making him possibly the ideal Republican candidate for 2016.

Former Taliban leader flees for safety - Al Jazeera English

Abdul Salam Zaeef is the man who offered his services to the U.S. from Day one to bring Taliban to the negotiating table and accomplish peace in Afghanistan. U.S. first locked him up at Guantanamo and now raid his home, what kind of stupidity is this?

Why is the U.S. committing folly upon folly, first in Iraq and now in Afghanistan? Have they learned no lessons in ten years that arrogance and bull headedness does not wins hearts and minds of an 'occupied' nation. Is it any wonder that U.S. is staring defeat in the face just like the Soviets, the British and so many others suffered before them.

President Obama needs to take the decision making out of the hands of Military commanders in Afghanistan and let someone like Hillay Clinton take charge of bringing an end to this war, just as President Nixon manadated Henry Kissinger to end the war in Vietnam.

He needs to get rid of the hawks like Leon Panetta, Petraus etc., who think they can win militarily, but have achieved virtually nothing in ten years. Afghanistan is not Iraq, Taliban are resilient and in a position to continue inflicting damage to U.S. morale and its forces. It is the Taliban who made the first move in wanting dialogue with the U.S. But Qatar talks have stalled because U.S. reneged on its promise to release Taliban detainees from Guantanamo to the Afghan Government.

The window of opportunity may close soon in Afganistan and if President Obama does not take advantage of it, this may turn out to the biggest folly of his Presidency.

Former Taliban leader flees for safety - Central & South Asia - Al Jazeera English

IT TOOK THREE MONTHS TO WIN THE AFGHAN WAR AND IT TOOK ANOTHER TEN YEARS TO LOSE IT.

The Afghan war was won within first three months, but now, ten years later, U.S. is all but defeated. Unable to "kill or capture the Taliban" a mantra often parroted by Bush & Obama, U.S. wants an exit, but doesn't quite know how to.

Three month from start of war, Al-Qaeda was on the run, having taken refuge in world's most inhospitable mountainous region between Afghanistan and Pakistan and Taliban too had thrown down arms and returned to their agricultural fields.

So, what turned the victory into defeat? Here is the answer. At the time of invasion, U.S. needed support of Afghans disenfranchised by the cruel and crude Taliban rule and these were the minority ethnic groups, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. Their military group the 'Northern Alliance' happily supported and participated in the invasion. But, they only represented the minority, not the majority, which were the Pashtuns. U.S. should have immediately launched a reconciliation process and brought Pashtuns into the Governance process along with minority groups. Instead, it imposed minority rule over majority, with the eventual backlash.

For all his faults, Newt Gingrich gets it, when he asks the question, where is the network of paved highways in Afghanistan, where is the development and and why is not every Afghan carrying a cell phone after all these years?

Once Taliban were defeated, there was no excuse to continue the war, bankrupting United States itself. Rather than spending $1 trillion on defeat, a fraction of that amount could have transformed Afghan society from 15th to 21st century. What was needed was a massive infrastructure development program that would have created employment and won the hearts and minds of all Afghans.

Today, Afghanistan is nothing but a picture of death and destruction, a fine legacy to leave behind after spending $1 trillion. U.S. taxpayers have every right to question their Generals and their Government about the wasteful spending of their tax dollars.

Additionally, U.S. Government's flawed attempts to leave behind a strong Central Government and Afghan Armed Forces comprising mainly of minority ethnic groups, is doomed to failure.Afghanistan has never had a strong Federal system. Its 30+ plus provinces have always had self rule. The provinces accepted King Zahir Shah as a figurehead while they governed themselves and that is the only system that will succeed in Afghanistan.

If U.S. is serious about ending the war and wants to see Afghanistan modernize and prosper, the best way is to pull all its troops out COMPLETELY, and allocate development funds on a provincial basis. A $30 billion development aid over five years, administered by the World Bank can accomplish a great deal more than another $100 billion on war over next two years.

Al-Awlaki killing: Can President Obama, Admiral Mullen, Leon Panetta and General Petraeus be charged with murder?

There was much celebration in Washing DC and the rest of US today on the killing of Al-Awlaki and probably rightly so, for he was a terrorist and planned and encouraged attacks on innocent civilians.

However, he was a US citizen and the cowboy behavior that US has adopted in Iraq and Afghanistan of midnight raids and cold blooded executions of supposed enemies, does not hold water in the US. The Administration, the Pentagon and CIA do not have the legal right to execute an American citizen who is suspected of acts of terror.

There is a legal process and there are courts for it. Will Al-Awalaki's father or any other US citizen stand up in a court of law in the US and demand that President Obama, Admiral Mullem, Leon Panetta and General Petraeus be charged with murder for not following the legal process?

It could make for quite a legal situation!

U.N. Veto on Palestinian State could have far reaching consequences for the U.S.

When Ramzih bin-Al Shibh, the number four Al-Qaeda leader was captured from Karachi in September 2002, he openly admitted to plotting the 9/11 attacks and said, these attacks were a revenge on the U.S. for decades of Palestinian suffering and for its unconditional support to Israel. These revelations were contained in CBC's Fifth Estate documentary aired recently.

This week, the Palestinian Authority is moving the U.N. for recognition as a State. Palestinians have the support of almost all countries of the world except Israel and U.S. U.S. is threatening to use its veto in the Security Council. If U.S. were to carry out its threat and veto the proposal, it will be a sad day for the world and it could also have far reaching consequences for the United States.

The Israel and Palestinians negotiations have been stalled for some time now. Obama Administration has been frustrated by the intransigent stand of Netanyahu Government. Repeated requests to halt new settlements have been met with Israeli disdain. Vice President Biden was literally slapped in the face when he had to turn back as soon as his plane landed in Israel, because Netanyahu announced new settlements while he was in the air.

President Obama has tried to get the negotiations under way. He even appointed an experienced and able interlocutor in Senator Mitchell to kick start the peace process, but Israel thwarted it at every step. Senator Mitchell, who helped negotiate a peace deal between the warring factions in Ireland has given up this job for not getting anywhere. Israel's complaint against the Senator - he is too fair.

Is the U.S. really going to use the veto? If it does, it will be the worse show of diplomacy by a mighty country. In their quest for statehood, Palestinians have the support of entire world. Is U.S. willing to go against the entire world and come to Israel's help even though it has failed to persuade Netanyahu to come to a fair and reasonable peace settlement?

One hopes better sense will prevail and U.S. will play the role of a world leader that it is and refrain from using the veto.

Will the U.S. economic downdrift bring Canadian economy down?

United States is politically deadlocked. No matter what President Obama proposes to the joint session of Congress on Thursday, most Republicans are not likely to back him.

The Tea Party segment of Republicans in the House (a significant number) is working on one item agenda only - get rid of Obama. The have made their disdain known openly for an African American President, calling him Hitler, anti American, the Other Guy and several such unfortunate names. They are hell bent on this, even if it destroys the U.S. economy, which was quite obvious during the recent debt negotiations.

This gridlock is damaging U.S. economic recovery. A large number of jobs that should have been created after the 2008/9 recession ended, have not been created. The unemployment picture is depressing as 14 million employable workers are not employed. Unemployment amongst teenagers runs at 25.4%, African Americans 16.7%, Hispanics 11.3% and whites at 8%. Many economists agree that current unemployment rate of 9.1% will come down to around 8.9% by end of year and to a low 8% in 2012, but that still leaves many million unemployed.

U.S. is Canada's largest trading partner and any serious impact on U.S.economy or buying power of its citizens will eventually filter through to the Canadian economy. While Canada's economy is still going through a slow recovery, it has been spared from a substantial impact, primarily because Canada's financial system proved to be the best in the world at a time a major financial crisis. But, if the U.S. economy continues a down drift, Canadian economy could stagnate.

It is important to insulate Canadian economy from such an eventuality. Alternative markets have to be found for its products in order to diversify exports and reduce dependence on U.S. Fortunately, Canada is a resource rich country and developing economies are in need of resources. Rising exports to China have helped offset some of the impact of declining U.S. orders.

The Canadian softwood lumber industry, which has been in a running battle with the U.S. Government and some of their intransigent politicians for years, has taken a leap forward by going to China, building houses and showing Chinese construction companies how they can build houses faster and cheaper by using lumber instead of concrete. This has resulted in creating demand for Canadian lumber in China, so much so that Canada is now exporting almost as much (if not more)lumber to China than the U.S. Other Canadian industries need to learn from this experience and explore markets around the world. The oil industry also needs to diversify its exports. An oil pipeline from Alberta to an off shore oil terminal on the Pacific Coast would make it considerably easier to export oil to China and other countries.

One good thing that has happened in this financial crisis is that Harper Government has grown up. From a reluctant, lukewarm attitude towards China in earlier years, now a more confident majority Harper Government has made progress. After a highly visible and successful visit by John Baird, Canadian Foreign Minister, Prime Minister will soon be off to China to increase trade opportunities. His recent visit to Brazil and other South American countries will also have positive impact on Canadian companies wanting to venture into those markets.

One market that Canada has not made major inroads into is India. This enormous market is very different than any other. India is not yet ready for large quantities of softwood lumber, not probably for another 10 years. Its infrastructure is abysmal and Canada could help plan and build roads on a fast track basis all over India. India is also in need of building small houses to replace slums and shanties. Canadian companies specializing in pre-fab construction could possibly set up factories in India to produce these in large quantities, so the Government and private sector, start replacing shanties on an emergency footing. There are probably countless other opportunities, for which the Indian market needs to be studied thoroughly and patiently, rewards will follow.

Canadian economy need not go down with the U.S. economy as long as it finds alternative markets and Canadian Corporations open their horizons to exploring new markets. The structure of Canadian Corporate Board also needs to be diversified to leverage enormous international talent available within Canada. The U.S. economy will ultimately recover and that could only give the Canadian economy a further boost.

Tea Party's Shenanigans hit America's 401k hard

It was quite obvious to many in America and around the world (as elaborated by this blog earlier) that Tea Party's intransigence in Debt Dialogue would eventually hit the markets hard and that is exactly what has happened. Even the senior members of Republican Party, who knew better or should known better, also demonstrated a complete disdain for a reasonableness accommodation.

The unfortunate message from Washington DC is that America is ungovernable. This is a very un-comforting thought. It has caused a downgrade of US credit rating and a decline in stock markets.

Retirees and those near retirement, have built their nest eggs with hard earned savings over their lifespans. They had barely recovered from the 2008 crash that they once again face a major decline in values of their investments. This time, the market decline was entirely avoidable. Had Washington entered into a responsible debt deal a few months ago, the message to markets would have been positive. But Tea Party's one point agenda - defeat Barack Obama in 2012 no matter what the cost, became a stumbling block to arriving at a timely settlement.

The 600+ point drop in Dow Jones on August 8 is most unfortunate. As in the past, the markets will ride out this storm too, but for many retirees, their 401K is a worth a great deal less today, than it was a few months ago.

Hopefully, the American electorate will remember all this in 2012 elections and send all those Congressmen and Senators packing, who put their warped ideology ahead of their nation's interests.

US: Tea Party is to blame for the impending default

The intransigence of Republican Party, especially their Tea Party component to raise debt ceiling is sending Canadian Dollar, Gold and Swiss Franc soaring. The markets consider these safe havens in case of a US default. If a default occurs August 2, 2011 onwards, the Tea Party will be to blame for creating havoc with US and World financial systems.

The debt ceiling was raised 17 times under Reagan, 4 times under Bush Sr. 4 times under Clinton and 7 times under Bush Jr. The Republican Party has only now developed consciousness or is it that their game play has gone too far?

The Tea Party's ideology is warped. In a country where every dollar spent, only 62 cents are raised in revenue and the rest is borrowed, Tea Partiers refuse to increase revenue sources. Granted that US spending is out of control and needs to be reigned in, but most of the extra spending in last ten years has been on expensive wars.

The Republican lawmakers who rave and rant against Government spending are themselves guilty of appropriating funds by way of entitlements for their pet projects, whether these are productive or not - like the bridge to nowhere in Alaska. They tag entitlements to any bill that passes Congress.

Although this fight between Tea Party and President Obama seems mostly ideological, but there may be some undercurrents of racism here. In 2010 elections, some Tea Party zealots suggested that African Americans should not vote as they don't understand democracy. It seems that Tea Party has a one point agenda - remove Barack Obama from office, no matter what the cost to country's economy.

To prevent default, if moderate Republicans do come to a last minute agreement with President Obama, Tea Party may try to stall the bill in Congress. If they cannot, they will probably field their own Presidential candidate in 2012. This could rip the Republican Party as their votes will split against Obama.

Is the Republican Party about to commit Harakiri? One hopes not.

After voting to raise US Debt Ceiling a record seven times in George W. Bush's eight years presidency, the Republican Party is now dragging its feet to raise it once unless they get their way - further reduction in taxes for the rich and drastic cut in social services for the poor i.e. medicare, social security etc. While Bush reduced taxes of his own accord, Republican Party never insisted on cuts to social services during his presidency.

By not increasing the debt ceiling, Republicans are holding US and world economy hostage as without the increase, US Government will most certainly start to default on its obligations from August 2, 2011 onwards. The debt ceiling should have been raised in May 2011, but Republicans have been playing hard ball, but now it is time for Republicans to deliver.

After pulling out of talks with President Obama Friday, the Speaker of the House probably realizes his folly and is now desperately trying to come up with a solution before the Asian markets open Monday. Though he has left it rather late, but one hopes that his efforts will bear fruit.

The Wall Street is extremely worried that if debt ceiling is not raised, default by US Government is imminent. If that happens, all hell may break lose in the financial markets. It is time for Wall Street and big Corporations (the main financiers of Republican party) to impress upon them that unless a deal is done within hours, all further funding to Republican party will cease.

Most Americans know what is going on and a majority of them are with President Obama on this. Perhaps the President should set a final deadline of 12 Noon (EST) Sunday and if no agreement is in place, he should go directly to the American public and take them into confidence. They should know who is playing havoc with their future.

GOOD RIDDANCE Osama bin Ladin

Last night President Barrack Obama confirmed the death of elusive terrorist Osama bin Ladin. He was killed through a military operation on a private mansion in Abbottabad, a city located 70 miles due north of Islamabad in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (formerly known as the North West Frontier Province) in Pakistan. Pakistan Military Academy, where all Army soldiers are given their initial training is located just 6 kilometers from Abbottabad.

Not much information is forthcoming at this stage about how it all happened. The actual operation seems to have been an all American one. There may have been some intelligence coordination with Pakistan. General Petraeus' visit to Islamabad and his meeting with General Ashfaq Kiyani a couple of days ago may have something to do with it. The strange thing is that there is no word either from Pakistan Army, the or the Pakistani Government.

The media reports suggest that Osama bin Ladin has been buried at sea. This may well have been done to avoid a shrine being built around his grave giving a focal point to his supporters. However, what is hard to fathom is, how was his body flown to the Arabian Sea. The Chinook Helicopters that took part in the attack would have had at least one hour flight from Bagram to Abbottabad and the trip down to sea would take another four and the return journey to nearest base in Afghanistan (say Kandhar) would take another two hours. The question is, does a Chinook helicopter have the capacity to fly seven hours without refuelling?

Burying Osama bin Ladin at sea raises some questions. Hopefully, the US Administration will soon release pictures of a dead Osama bin Ladin for the satisfaction of American people as well as for the world at large. Knowing how cautious President Obama is in these matter, he wouldn't stake his Presidency on it unless he had checked and rechecked several times with the ground forces, Pentagon and the CIA before his address to the nation last night.

GOOD RIDDANCE Osama bin Ladin. You unleashed terror not just on the West, but also equally ferociously on the Muslim world. The 9/11 attacks, the suicide bombings, the killing of innocent people in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Morocco, Yemen and elsewhere is your legacy. You have blood on your soul of thousands of people around the world who did you no harm. The world is a better place today than it was yesterday.

Questions about Afghanistan War - Why is the U.S. failing?

Ten years after the launch of Afghan war, why is the U.S. on verge of losing this war? This is a question that haunts many a military strategists and U.S. citizens who have scarified life and treasure.

Ten years after the launch of this war, there has been no comprehensive analysis of why this war is still going on and why things have gone so wrong? Each time a new military commander is sent to Afghanistan, hope rises but then it fades again. By now, serious questions should have been raised by the intelligentsia in the U.S. They should have challenged successive U.S. Administrations and their analysis of this war. Also, the question needs to be asked of the Administration - when will this war end?

In the first year of war, Taliban had all but surrendered - not in the military sense, but they gave up fighting and went back to their fields to their day to day lives. Why did the war not end then? Why were public development projects not started at that time for upliftment of Afghan society? An investment of $20 billion could have revolutionized Afghan cities, provinces and the Country as whole. In whose interest was it to continue the war and spend several hundred billion dollars bankrupting America?

Osama bin Ladin and Al-Qaeda were on the run and some former U.S. intelligence officials suspect, he was allowed to escape from Tora Bora. If that is true, then why did that happen and why have no serious questions been asked in the U.S. by politicians or the media.

Many believe that suffering from a serious kidney ailment, Osama bin Ladin died several years ago. If that is the case, then why are successive Administrations not telling the truth? If the intelligence community does not know whether he is dead or alive, then what kind of intelligence work are they doing? If they are not sure whether he is dead or alive, then who are they chasing?

Through lack of country knowledge and perhaps naivete, U.S. allowed minority Tajiks & Uzbeks to dominate majority Pashtuns in running the affairs of Afghanistan in earlier years. As Taliban were Pashtun, some simple minds probably thought that all Pashtuns were Taliban. This was far from the truth as a majority of Pashtuns were also sick and tired of Taliban's extreme views. Uzbek warlord Rashid Dostum's murderous gangs killed most of Pashtun POWs. The Tajiks were equally vicious. Pashtun prisoners were locked up in 40 foot freight containers without water, food or sanitation, most died before the containers were opened weeks later. Many were simply lined up and shot and all this under the U.S. watch!

Persecuted, the Pashtuns started to support the Taliban (by now almost extinct) once again, even those who had never supported them before. Sympathy and cash revived them into a more potent force than at the outset of war. Some brilliant minds in the U.S. thought that allowing Afghans to grow poppy once again (completely banished under Taliban rule) will probably make them happy. Indeed it did and it also started a multi-billion dollar drug trade. Some of the poppy proceeds started to flow to Taliban. As a result, they have become a formidable force today.

So Mr. Obama, you said this is a war of necessity, then why have things gone so wrong and why is the U.S. on the verge of losing it? After hundreds of billions of dollars and many lives lost (U.S., Afghan and Pakistan), what has been accomplished so far?

More importantly, Mr. Obama, when will this war end?

THE AFGHAN WAR IS LOST ALREADY - PRESIDENT OBAMA, BRING THE TROOPS HOME

It is an irony that the Afghan war was won within the first three months and yet it has been lost over ten years.

After the 9/11 attacks in New York, U.S. had a genuine reason to go after Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Within the first two weeks of invasion, Taliban were on the run and after Tora Bora, Al-Qaeda too was substantially decimated.

The war should have ended then. Taliban were weakened and had no hope of coming back to power, they melted away and became part of mainstream Afghan society. A massive development effort for Afghanistan (like the Marshall Plan) should have been initiated to rebuild that war torn country. That would have diverted attention from war to peacetime activities, created jobs, opened schools, markets and built the much lacking infrastructure. Afghanistan could have been brought out of the 15th century into the 20th century (if not the 21st).

History will record that continuation of war beyond the first few months and shift of focus from Al-Qaeda to Taliban was a major policy disaster of the Bush Administration. Fighting Arab and other foreign terrorists in Afghanistan is one thing, but fighting the local populace and that too, the majority Pashtuns (all Taliban are Pashtuns) is another thing altogether.

Afghan history is littered with ruins of foreign armies and so far none of the invaders have succeed. The breakup of Soviet Union following their retreat from Afghanistan is still fresh in our minds.

In foreign policy and war management terms, Bush Administration's early decision to impose rule by minority Northern Alliance over the majority Pashtun would prove to be a fateful decision that would prolong the war for more than ten years. President Obama's folly of owning a lost war and troop increases would only make matters worse. Also, the substantial increase in night raid activities under President Obama involving killing of Afghans, many of whom turn out to be innocent civilians is making matters worse. It is causing anger and providing impetus to Taliban in their recruitment. It is time that these raids stop and stop immediately.

Once it was clear that U.S. had no desire to bring the war to an end and Northern Alliance would continue to hold a lion's share of power, it became a Pashtun v non Pashtun war. America's continued alignment with Northern Alliance and its failure to bring aboard all stakeholders, especially the majority Pashtuns, gave them a reason to consider foreign troops as occupiers rather than as friends who may rid them of Taliban forever. Gradually, Taliban started to resurface, supported and financed by Pashtun leaders, many of whom play a double game - break bread with Americans and finance Taliban at the same time. Even General Petraeus admits that Taliban have an upper hand at this point. It has also been reported that US has taken more casualties in the last month alone than any other month since the war began. If this war is not brought to an end soon, Taliban will be emboldened even more and the outcome could be even worse.

One of the most disastrous policy decisions ever made by some brilliant minds in Washington, D.C. was to encourage Afghans to grow poppy again, the production of which had previously been eradicated under Taliban regime. Large sums of money started to flow in the hands of drug lords and barons once again and Taliban too found a stream of perpetual cash headed their way. Taliban, who by then were almost extinct started to rise from ruins like the Phoenix from the ashes. The increased revenue improved their morale and strengthen their resolve. They started to re-equip themselves and could even afford to recruit daily wage soldiers to bolster their ranks. While a number of factors have contributed to the outcome of war in Afghanistan, this decision alone has perhaps gone a long way in converting victory into defeat.

The strange thing is that even after ten years, U.S. and NATO have not understood the Afghan Society. Afghans have been warriors for centuries, they do not need military training. By now we all know that Taliban with their minimal training can give a fair fight to U.S. and NATO troops. If anything, Afghans need to be weaned off their weapons. To accomplish this, a major development effort is required. The Afghans have had nothing to do except fight for the last several years. They need to be put to work in factories, road & bridge building, school and market building etc., so they can begin to provide a decent living for their families without fighting wars.

US has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on this war and there is nothing to show for it. Afghanistan is still a war ravaged backward country. Rebuilding that country would have cost a great deal less and not so many lives would have been lost.

This war has already been lost and it is time to put an end to it and bring all soldiers home. Let the Afghans decide their own fate. They did it before the Soviet invasion and they will do so again after the withdrawal.

General McChrystal - Good Riddance, Now it is time to bring in a new Defense Secretary

General McChrystal's insubordination and inappropriate comments about his superiors and especially the Commander-in-Chief earned him a well deserved sack. Anything less would have been perceived as a weakness on President Obama's part.

Letting McChrystal off the hook would have opened doors to insubordination from other military officers. What is surprising however, is the rumor that Defense Secretary Robert Gates pleaded for a lesser punishment. If this is true, then it is a matter of great concern. How can the Defense Secretary not ask for full and proper punishment. In fact, it is President Obama's open mindedness to invite the General to the Oval office to explain his conduct, otherwise he could have just asked the Defense Secretary to relieve him of his command.

Robert Gates has served many a President, but he may have too much baggage from the past. In these changed times, President Obama needs to appoint a new Defense Secretary to implement his policies, someone whose thinking is completely aligned with the President.

The war in Iraq may be winding down, though the after effects of a total withdrawal are yet to emerge. However, things are not going well in Afghanistan. McChrystal may have befriended the Afghans, but his surge is not working. Taliban are a different breed altogether, each time NATO forces launch a major attack, they simply melt away and regroup to start the fight elsewhere another day. Instead of reducing, their numbers are increasing.

It is time to rethink the Afghan strategy entirely. No foreign force has ever defeated the Afghan people, and this war IS against the Afghan people, be they under the garb of Taliban. It is time to wind down the war and implement an exit strategy based on a political settlement. For that, the President needs to put on his thinking cap and he also needs new leadership at Pentagon.

ARIZONA IMMIGRATION LAW - IS THIS A PLOY BY THE REPUBLICANS TO BAIT PRESIDENT OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATS?

Arizona's recent passage of Immigration Law is not only contentious but possibly even unconstitutional, as only the Federal Government has power over immigration matters. However, that is for the courts to decide and it will not be surprising if constitutional petitions head the Supreme Court way in not too distant a future. The Supreme Court may have leanings in a certain direction, but when it comes to interpreting the constitution, the Justices are at their best.

Being a border state, Arizona no doubt has an illegal immigration problem. But, this law may be less to do with that and more to do with tempting President Obama and Democrats to bring about an immigration bill in a haste.

Republicans are still recovering from their failure to block the the Health care bill. They also know that Financial Reform Bill is likely to pass, so they cannot present President Obama victory after victory heading into mid term elections in 2010. An immigration bill before the US House of Representatives and the US Senate is sure to stir passions and anger against a Federal Government providing a route to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

With a strong opposition to such a move in the South and much more so in the border states plus the ire of nearly 10% Americans without jobs, it could create quite a strong anti-immigration lobby in the country, possibly far larger than all of the Latino votes combined. It could prove to be a costly and a high risk strategy for an Administration to bring an immigration bill before the Congress in an election year. Perhaps this is what the Republicans are hoping for. The Arizona Immigration Law could be a bait for President Obama and the Democrats. However, going by President Obama's strategic style so far, he is far ahead in these things than any Republican or Democrat. So, hopefully, he will weigh all options before initiating an immigration bill.

In the meantime, Arizona law could prove to be a good kicking opportunity for the Administration. They could take it to the Supreme Court, hopefully win and garner Latino support without alienating the white voters.

Arizona is already beginning to face the music as more and more people and corporations are planning to stay away from the State. American Immigration Lawyers Association has already canceled its convention in Scottsdale. Other organizations and corporations may follow suit. The hotel industry is complaining bitterly as they rely heavily on immigrants for their staff requirements. All this could have serious consequences for Arizona's economy and its tourist industry.

PASS THE HEALTHCARE BILL ALREADY

President Obama and the Democratic leadership have allowed the Healthcare bill to linger far too long, it should have passed months ago. Republicans and Tea Party activists have been given far too much time to bash the bill in an effort to derail it.

It has been quite obvious all along that Republicans are NOT going to support it in any shape or form, then why waste time in trying to win them over. Their vested interests do not allow them to support anything that goes against the insurance company interests. Rumor has it, their re-election campaign coffers are filling up nicely through campaign contributions by vested interests. Apparently Republicans are not the only beneficiaries either, some Democrats opposed to the bill also seem to be receiving this bounty.

The Healthcare bill should now be passed immediately through a reconciliation process, which requires only 51 votes in the Senate. And yes, the Public Option should be kept in the bill as it is the responsibility of the Government to provide a good healthcare system. If insurance companies won't cover or are expensive, then the Government should step in to provide coverage to its citizens. Lessons should be learned from the Canadian public healthcare system.

Canada has most probably the best healthcare system in the world. The disinformation campaign against it in the US by vested interests and Senator McCain (him probably out of ignorance than malice) is utterly dishonest. Canadian public healthcare system covers every man, woman and child (very eloquently elaborated by William Shatner in the closing ceremonies last night). Healthcare is funded through taxes and no insurance premiums are required. All procedures recommended by doctors (except of course elective cosmetic surgery)are 100% covered and no co-payment is required. There may be a wait time for a minor surgeries, but major surgeries are attended to immediately. And NO, the Government does not have a say in who gets operated on, the Doctors do as they are completely independent in their decision making.

US Economy faces far more serious challenges than to allow Healthcare debate to occupy center stage for this long. It should have been off the table several months ago. President and his team need to focus on job creation, trade and budget deficits. He had an excellent campaign team that brought him to the White House, but many of these who became his advisers are green and not experienced in the way Washington works. He needs to bring in some experienced hands who can tackle the Senators and Congressmen, some of whom have been in DC for 30 years and know all the tricks to derail an Administration.

It is time to pass the Healthcare bill NOW.