Afghanistan War can be ended in 2012.

U.S. Defence Secretary's recent announcement of winding down the war in 2013 instead of 2014 should be welcomed. But, why wait for 2013 when the war can be ended in 2012?

The dialogue recently initiated in Qatar between U.S. and Taliban is very encouraging, a major step towards achieving an end to the war. These are early days and many a hurdle will have to be crossed before peace is achieved. Both sides must show good faith, an immediate ceasefire would be an ideal confidence building measure. Following which, U.S. must not resort to Vietnam style criminal bombing ordered by Henry Kissinger and Taliban must also observe the ceasefire in letter and spirit.

We have argued in this blog for years that U.S. cannot win this war and a dialogue needs to be started with Taliban. It has taken U.S. years to turn their head around and that too after loss of much life and treasure. But the fact that they have started this process, must be applauded - better late than never.

It was a folly on the part of the U.S. to believe, they could win this war or go it alone. They have finally come to realize that Pakistan has a very important stake in Afghanistan and also has a crucial role to play in bringing peace. The Pashtun population on Pakistan's western flank inter-mingles with the Pashtun population of Afghanistan. In fact, the Pashtuns do not distinguish between the two countries. They are a majority in Afghanistan and the Taliban (100% Pashtun), have so far resisted and rejected Karzai Government, controlled by the minority Uzbeks and Tajiks, of Northern Alliance.

The parties that need to be involved in the dialogue are: U.S., Pakistan, Karzai Government, Northern Alliance and Taliban. Each player has an important role to play to end the war and maintain peace in the post war period. While Pashtun are majority, they cannot bulldoze their way to be totally in control. The Uzbeks and Tajiks must have adequate representation in Afghan Government. After a settlement is agreed President Karzai's role should be limited to holding free and fair elections (in which he and his drug lord brother do not take part) and hand over power to a newly elected Government.

Taliban have to provide assurances that they will not revert to their old ways and force their view of religion. They will have to agree to speed up women and children's education and not stop it. Northern Alliance too, will have to commit not to conspire with foreign powers and agree to play an active role in Afghanistan's development.

The Afghans are tired of 33 years of perpetual war. A whole generation has come up knowing nothing except war and it is time, children were in school rather than on battlefield. Afghans are ready for peace and so is hopefully the U.S.

Finally, peace will not be accomplished if any foreign troops stay back, whether under the guise of training or anything else. ALL FOEIGN TRROPS MUST LEAVE ON AN AGREED UPON DATE. Afghans do not need military training from foreign soldiers who have not been able to defeat them in ten years, despite far better weaponry. Afghans are born soldiers, let them train their own army.

Instead of spending another $100 billion on war in 2013 and 2014, U.S. should offer economic aid of $34 billion, $1 billion for each of the 34 Afghan provinces, to be spent over five years i.e. $6.8 billion per year, a considerable cost reduction for U.S. These funds should be administered by the World Bank and should be allocated for building roads, bridges, markets, schools and transport infrastructure. $200 million per province per year will create enormous employment opportunities for the impoverished populace and it will get them busy with economic development of their country. Rather than foreign consultants and builders draining out these funds, the construction work should be undertaken by local contractors only.

So why wait till 2013 or 2014, when this war can be ended in 2012?

Questions about Afghanistan War - Why is the U.S. failing?

Ten years after the launch of Afghan war, why is the U.S. on verge of losing this war? This is a question that haunts many a military strategists and U.S. citizens who have scarified life and treasure.

Ten years after the launch of this war, there has been no comprehensive analysis of why this war is still going on and why things have gone so wrong? Each time a new military commander is sent to Afghanistan, hope rises but then it fades again. By now, serious questions should have been raised by the intelligentsia in the U.S. They should have challenged successive U.S. Administrations and their analysis of this war. Also, the question needs to be asked of the Administration - when will this war end?

In the first year of war, Taliban had all but surrendered - not in the military sense, but they gave up fighting and went back to their fields to their day to day lives. Why did the war not end then? Why were public development projects not started at that time for upliftment of Afghan society? An investment of $20 billion could have revolutionized Afghan cities, provinces and the Country as whole. In whose interest was it to continue the war and spend several hundred billion dollars bankrupting America?

Osama bin Ladin and Al-Qaeda were on the run and some former U.S. intelligence officials suspect, he was allowed to escape from Tora Bora. If that is true, then why did that happen and why have no serious questions been asked in the U.S. by politicians or the media.

Many believe that suffering from a serious kidney ailment, Osama bin Ladin died several years ago. If that is the case, then why are successive Administrations not telling the truth? If the intelligence community does not know whether he is dead or alive, then what kind of intelligence work are they doing? If they are not sure whether he is dead or alive, then who are they chasing?

Through lack of country knowledge and perhaps naivete, U.S. allowed minority Tajiks & Uzbeks to dominate majority Pashtuns in running the affairs of Afghanistan in earlier years. As Taliban were Pashtun, some simple minds probably thought that all Pashtuns were Taliban. This was far from the truth as a majority of Pashtuns were also sick and tired of Taliban's extreme views. Uzbek warlord Rashid Dostum's murderous gangs killed most of Pashtun POWs. The Tajiks were equally vicious. Pashtun prisoners were locked up in 40 foot freight containers without water, food or sanitation, most died before the containers were opened weeks later. Many were simply lined up and shot and all this under the U.S. watch!

Persecuted, the Pashtuns started to support the Taliban (by now almost extinct) once again, even those who had never supported them before. Sympathy and cash revived them into a more potent force than at the outset of war. Some brilliant minds in the U.S. thought that allowing Afghans to grow poppy once again (completely banished under Taliban rule) will probably make them happy. Indeed it did and it also started a multi-billion dollar drug trade. Some of the poppy proceeds started to flow to Taliban. As a result, they have become a formidable force today.

So Mr. Obama, you said this is a war of necessity, then why have things gone so wrong and why is the U.S. on the verge of losing it? After hundreds of billions of dollars and many lives lost (U.S., Afghan and Pakistan), what has been accomplished so far?

More importantly, Mr. Obama, when will this war end?

President Obama & Afghanistan

President Obama is getting ready to send another 17,000 troops to Afghanistan. No doubt, things are not going well in that war and Taliban have gained ground lately. But is sending more troops a wise move or will Afghanistan become for Obama what Vietnam became for Johnson - a great folly?

After 9/11 United States had justification to attack Afghanistan because that is where Al-Qaeda planned and perpetrated attacks on New York. The initial military operation was well accomplished, but the subsequent political moves have not been savvy. United States has a fundamental deficiency that not having been a colonial power like U.K. and France, it has never had detailed ground knowledge of far off places like Afghanistan.

The British fought the Afghans for nearly 200 years and could never gain complete control. The Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan with 140,000 troops, air planes, tanks, artillery and all kinds of weaponry and yet it lost the war and had to withdraw in shame leading to its break up. Now the U.S. and its NATO allies want to gain control of Afghanistan with just over 50,000 troops, so what are the chances of NATO's success?

The Afghan problem is no longer military (that purpose was achieved immediate after the US dislodged the Taliban), but it is a political problem. The ethnic Afghan make up comprises Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks and other smaller groups. Pashtuns are in majority and all of the Taliban are Pashtun. Though Mr. Hamid Karzai is a Pashtun, but for many years now the US has vested major power centers with Northern Alliance players and that is not acceptable to the Pashtun majority. After Taliban were dislodged, what was needed was a unity Government with fair representation to all including majority representation to Pashtuns, but that has not happened to this day and that is the root cause of the Afghan problem.

Some of the moderate Taliban were willing to talk to the US to become part of Afghan Government. The former Taliban Foreign Minister, Mullah Mutawakkal offered to mediate with Taliban but because of domination by Non-Pashtun Northern Alliance, both the US and Afghan Government refused to deal with the Taliban. Over time sympathies for Taliban have increased. Various Pashtun Government officials, businessmen and warlords may appear to be with Karzai Government, but they not only sympathize but also fund the Taliban's fight because they feel it is their fight too.

Another disastrous policy that has had enormous impact on Afghan situation is re- plantation of poppy (Taliban Government had completely eradicated it). Some brilliant minds in the CIA & Bush Administration felt that if allowed to grow poppy, Afghans will be happy and content and not fight against them! Well, the outcome has been the opposite, funds generated by sale of poppy are flowing into Taliban hands to purchase more guns and hardware to extend the fight with.

Another significant difficulty in fighting this war is that NATO is a foreign force and Taliban are local. The populace supports the fighters the same way they supported Mujaheddin against Soviet invasion. They consider NATO forces as foreign invaders and feel justified to fight them. The Afghan Government of Hamid Karzai is impotent and considered a puppet regime despite being democratically elected. In reality Mr. Karzai's domain does not extend beyond Kabul and the rest of the country is the wild wild west.

The resolution of Afghan situation is in bringing all parties to the table for a dialogue including the Taliban. After all, it is their country too. Fresh elections need to be called based on fair representation for all to replace the current Northern Alliance dominated Western backed Government. Also NATO troops need to leave Afghanistan as they will always be treated as a foreign occupying force and as long they remain in Afghanistan, Taliban will fight them. They need to be replaced by UN troops drawn from a broad spectrum of nations to oversee peace.

What Afghanistan needs more than anything else is a major reconstruction effort to bring the country out of fifteenth century into the twenty first. Instead of wasting money on fighting, a $50 billion Marshall Plan is needed to build infrastructure, educational and health institutions and capacity building. That entire Frontier region of Pakistan and the whole of Afghanistan could benefit substantially from such an effort. Taliban could be history if an honest effort is made in this direction. Just sending more troops could increase the fight and make Afghanistan into another Vietnam with no end in sight.