IS THE UNITED STATES IN DANGER OF A BREAKUP?

           President Biden after the ISIS attack on Kabul Airport, which left hundreds dead.

President Joe Biden openly admitted this week that Afghanistan is a graveyard of the Empires. The British Empire was the first to be humiliated in Afghanistan. This is how the historian William Dalrymple describes how U. K’s first incursion ended in Afghanistan. ‘The First Anglo-Afghan War was arguably the greatest military humiliation ever suffered by the West in the East. On the infamous retreat from Kabul, which began on the 6 Jan 1842, of the 18,500 who left the British cantonment, only one British citizen, the surgeon Dr. Brydon, made it through to Jalalabad six days later. An entire army of what was then the most powerful military nation in the world utterly destroyed by poorly-equipped tribesmen’. So, 18,499 British soldiers were slaughtered by the Afghans and the only surviving soldier, being a doctor was let go so he could narrate to his masters as to what happened.

A couple more attempts by the British to invade Afghanistan also failed and their grip on India loosened sufficiently for it to become independent bringing with it the breakup of the British Empire. Some British politicians had learned their lesson and as reported by William Dalrymple ‘Even as late as October 1963, when Harold Macmillan was handing over the prime ministership to Alec Douglas-Home, he is supposed to have called the younger man to his office and passed on some reassuring advice, “My dear boy,” he said, looking down from his paper, “as long as you don’t invade Afghanistan you’ll be absolutely fine.” Sadly, John Major appears to have neglected to give the same advice to Tony Blair. In 2001, soon after the catastrophe of 9/11 Blair signed up with Bush to invade Afghanistan yet again. Thus, racking up the fourth defeat for the British in Afghanistan.

In 1979 the Soviet Union repeated the folly of invading Afghanistan. It took them ten years to realize that they were in an unwinnable war and after losing thousands of soldiers, arms and equipment retreated from Afghanistan in 1989. The impact and cost of the Afghan war was so great that The Soviet Union broke up into several states, leaving Russia on its own devoid of all the European and Central Asian states that at one time comprised The Soviet Union.

The spectacular defeat of the United States and its allies after twenty years of occupation, loss of thousands of soldiers and nearly two trillion dollars of American taxpayer money wasted with nothing to show for it plus the 100,000 innocent Afghans killed by their reckless bombing, drone attacks and daisy cutters, is not altogether surprising. The writing has been on the wall for a long time, only the U.S’ arrogance and foolish belief in their superiority did not allow them to see the impending defeat. They came to defeat Al-Qaeda, which they managed to do within three months but then expanded the war ‘to kill or capture the Taliban’ as President George W. Bush defined it. Twenty years later, they asked the Taliban to let them leave in peace and handed back the country to them once again. 

The loss of war does not by itself mean the breakup of The United States is imminent, but the massive humiliation will have far-reaching consequences on its Military and politics. There is a storm brewing within The United States and the undercurrent is so strong that it could wreak havoc on the country. A sample of it was seen on January 6, 2021, when a pro-Trump mob attacked the Congress building killing several policemen. The Senators and Congress members had to run for their lives, some of whom escaped just seconds before the attack. President Trump who lost the election in November 2020 is aggressively attacking President Joe Biden as he aspires to run for office again in 2024. The defeat in Afghanistan will provide him an impetus to attack the pro-war establishment and the military-industrial complex that has been pushing wars in the Middle East. He has come out of the woodworks and is already attacking the past Presidents for launching wars on Iraq, Libya, Syria & Afghanistan, calling them a great mistake. To his credit, he made a deal with the Taliban to bring this war to an end. His attacks are likely to grow louder and become more frequent to build up momentum.

President Trump’s supporters are extreme right-wing fundamentalists who do not want to see African Americans take part in voting and in various states have already passed laws to deny them voting rights. The defeat in Afghanistan and the Presidential election campaign that will start in 2022, is likely to rip the country apart and the political scene could get a great deal uglier than what we saw on January 6, 2021. Trump’s followers (including many Senators and Congress members) support the theory that the 2020 election was stolen from him and in 2024, they want the Presidential office back for him by hook or by crook.

The divide between the Northern and Southern States could crystallize and the less educated working-class blue-collar white voters in The Southern States could be pitted against the better-educated voters in The North-Eastern States and California, which are traditionally Democratic States. Encouraged by Donald Trump the election campaign could become violent just as it did on January 6 and this could lead to chaos and mayhem ripping apart the fishers that already exist in the American Society, ultimately resulting in the breakup of the United States.

  

THE DEFEAT OF YET ANOTHER SUPERPOWER AT THE HANDS OF A RAG TAG BUNCH OF PRIMITIVE AFGHAN FIGHTERS

 History repeats itself

               Vietnam 1975                                            Kabul 2021

             Desperate Afghan nationals clung to the U.S. aircraft and fell to their deaths.

The Soviet Union bit the dust in Afghanistan in 1989 and now another arrogant Superpower, the United States of America bites the dust in Afghanistan in 2021. This is despite the fact that U.S. lost the war and ran from Vietnam with its tail between its legs in 1975 and yet again history repeats itself as the U.S. runs from Aghanistan exactly in the same manner in 2021. Desperate Afghans clinging to helicopters/aircraft in the hope of redemption for siding with the U.S. over the last 20 years and being the partners in the death and destruction of over 100,000 Afghans.

The U.S. in its wisdom built an Afghan Army of 300,000 strong and equipped it Western-style but when the push came to a shove, the 'American trained' Afghan soldiers capitulated like a house of cards, or perhaps they did not want to fight their Taliban brethren. The U.S. in its arrogance forgot that Afghans don't need training and even a five-year-old kid is better at handling an automatic weapon than a fully laden American soldier. The Afghans only joined the army to get a salary and over the years many disappeared with their weapons and joined the ranks of the Taliban and yet the Americans kept raising and equipping more Afghan soldiers.

The Afghan leadership that was planted by the United States came to power through rigged elections and with only 5% voter turnout. Fiest Hamid Karzai and later Ashraf Ghani proved to be must corrupt drug peddlers while the U.S. conveniently looked the other way. The so-called Democracy was nothing but a farce and had no public support. The way Ashraf Ghani escaped from Kabul and tried to take suitcases full of dollars shows the lack of credibility of such criminal leaders.

India was allowed a free hand in Afghanistan by the U.S. setting up five consulates and several training centres throughout Afghanistan. Their notorious intelligence agency RAW jointly with Afghanistan's NDS to finance terrorists to launch bomb attacks in Pakistan. The biggest crime was the cold-blooded murder of 165 innocent children of Army Public School, Peshawar by the Indian financed TTP, a criminal organisation of exiled Pakistani Taliban. Mr. Ajit Duval , Modi's National Security Advisor is on record admitting financing the TTP to launch attacks into Pakistan. They also financed the bogus Balochistan Liberation movement. All this under the nose of the American occupiers and no doubt with their blessings. The terrorism supported by the U.S., India and Afghanistan was as bad as if not worse than the 9/11 attacks on the U.S. It is a shame that a country that suffered such massive tragedy had a hand in terrorism in this region.

Many a great power have disappeared over the course of history. The Soviet Union evaporated after its invasion of Afghanistan, it remains to be seen if the U.S. follows suit.

 follows the 

AFTER SPENDING A TRILLION DOLLARS, HAVING 3500 OF ITS & ALLIED SOLDIERS AND OVER 35,000 AFGHANS KILLED AND THOUSANDS MORE MAIMED, THE US LEARNS ITS LESSONS IN AFGHANISTAN

The US & Afghan Taliban sign a peace treaty in Qatar on February 29, 2020. (Picture courtesy Voice of America).

Nineteen years after launching attacks on Afghanistan to initially eliminate Al-Qaeda and later the Taliban, the US realized the futility of war which Presidents George W. Bush and Barak Obama foolishly pursued to eliminate the Taliban and from time to time even claimed false victories. Afghanistan has proved to be a graveyard of Superpowers, starting with the British, the Soviet Union and now the United States.

Better late than never. The good thing about the agreement crafted between the US & Taliban is that it calls for an orderly withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and gradual take over by Afghans. So if the Taliban do not start infighting and the Afghan Government of Ashraf Ghani does not sabotage the deal as under this agreement they will virtually lose all power, then Afghanistan may finally see peace. Although the agreement is worded ridiculously as each clause starts with 'The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban', the US already seems to have accepted a Taliban Government in Afghanistan as Part Two, Clause 5 of the agreement asks the Taliban not to issue passports or visas to certain persons as per extract below:

'Part Two:

5. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban will not provide visas, passports, travel permits, or other legal documents to those who pose a threat to the security of the United States and its allies to enter Afghanistan'.

The prospect that a thirty-one-year-old conflict may come to an end in Afghanistan which was started by the Soviet Union in 1989 and continued by warring Afghan factions and blown to a full-fledged war post 9/11 by the US, is itself a good thing. The people of Afghanistan have suffered enough at the hands of foreign invaders and at the hands of their own warlords. They deserve peace and prosperity. It is a shame that nearly one trillion dollars have been wasted on the war effort, whereas a fraction of that amount could have brought prosperity to Afghanistan. One hopes the nightmare is over for the resilient nation of Afghanistan and they can now start a march toward prosperity. 

The credit must be given to President Trump for realizing the futility of it all and putting an end to this war. Similarly, Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan and Chief of Army Staff, General Bajwa deserve credit for bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table time and again even when the accord was faltering.

SHOULD THE NOBEL COMMITTEE REVOKE OBAMA'S NOBEL PRIZE?

Photo courtesy BBC.com/news

Awarding President Obama the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009 was a grave mistake, the Nobel Committee Secretary admits now. The President had not accomplished anything at that time for world peace, so the prize was a euphoric rush to judgment following President Obama's historic election victory.

All the excitement and hope that President Obama brought to the Oval office dissipated over time as he continued most of President Bush's policies. That dreaded Guantanamo Bay prison (where over 400 innocent people were tortured then released without charge) is still open. Wars continue in Iraq & Afghanistan, But worse President Obama started war in Libya under the guise of no-fly zone and in gross violation of UN Charter. Libya is now a fractured country ruled by varying a different groups of terrorists.

Libya (Picture courtesy usatoday.com)

President Obama's biggest failure is war in Syria. In order to illegally remove President Asad (no doubt a dictator), Obama funded groups who turned out to be components of ISIS and various rag tag bunch of terrorists. The country has been fractured, hundreds of thousands have died, millions have become refugees, all for what?

The Nobel Committee MUST revoke President Obama's Nobel Peace Prize, instead of achieving peace, he has caused more war, more bloodshed, more loss of human life and more misery to millions of people. He is certainly not deserving of a Nobel Peace Prize.

State of Homs now ( picture courtesy NBC news)

SOME AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY SUCCESSES UNDER BUSH & OBAMA

• INSTIGATED ANTI RUSSIAN RIOTS IN GEORGIA - LOST ABKHAZIA TO RUSSIA

• LOST IRAQ WAR - AN UNJUSTIFIED WAR, DELIVERED IRAQ INTO THE LAP OF IRANIANS - LOST THOUSANDS OF U.S. SOLDIERS AND HALF A MILLION IRAQIS, SPENT WELL OVER $3 TRILLION (SEVERAL BILLIONS CASH WENT MISSING).
• LOST AFGHANISTAN WAR, A JUSTIFIED WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN WRAPPED UP IN THREE MONTHS. 13 YEARS LATER, SEVERAL THOUSAND U.S. SOLDIERS STILL IN AFGHANISTAN, THOUGH WINDING DOWN. $1 TRILLION SPENT WITHOUT ANY RESULTS, WITH SEVERAL THOUSAND US & AFGHANS DEAD.
• STAGED AN UPRISING IN LIBYA, OVERTHROWING QADDAFI, HIS PUBLIC BEATING AND MURDER, SOON AFTER PUBLIC BEATING AND MURDER OF US AMBASSADOR IN LIBYA,. DELIVERING LIBYA TO SEVERAL PRO AL-QAEDA GROUPS WITH ENSUING CHAOS.
• MANIPULATED A MILITARY COUP IN EGYPT, DEPOSING AN ELECTED PRESIDENT DEALING A GEAT BLOW TO DEMOCRACY. THE CORRUPT AND THUGGISH MILITARY GENERALS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF CONQUERING THEIR OWN PEOPLE - YET ONCE AGAIN
• INSTIGATED RIOTS IN UKRAINE, RUNNING OFF YET ANOTHER ELECTED PRESIDENT FROM OFFICE (SECOND WITHIN 12 MONTHS) - DELIVERING CRIMEA IN  RUSSIA'S LAP.

SOME FOREIGN POLICY SUCCESSES INDEED!

IT TOOK THREE MONTHS TO WIN THE AFGHAN WAR AND IT TOOK ANOTHER TEN YEARS TO LOSE IT.

The Afghan war was won within first three months, but now, ten years later, U.S. is all but defeated. Unable to "kill or capture the Taliban" a mantra often parroted by Bush & Obama, U.S. wants an exit, but doesn't quite know how to.

Three month from start of war, Al-Qaeda was on the run, having taken refuge in world's most inhospitable mountainous region between Afghanistan and Pakistan and Taliban too had thrown down arms and returned to their agricultural fields.

So, what turned the victory into defeat? Here is the answer. At the time of invasion, U.S. needed support of Afghans disenfranchised by the cruel and crude Taliban rule and these were the minority ethnic groups, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. Their military group the 'Northern Alliance' happily supported and participated in the invasion. But, they only represented the minority, not the majority, which were the Pashtuns. U.S. should have immediately launched a reconciliation process and brought Pashtuns into the Governance process along with minority groups. Instead, it imposed minority rule over majority, with the eventual backlash.

For all his faults, Newt Gingrich gets it, when he asks the question, where is the network of paved highways in Afghanistan, where is the development and and why is not every Afghan carrying a cell phone after all these years?

Once Taliban were defeated, there was no excuse to continue the war, bankrupting United States itself. Rather than spending $1 trillion on defeat, a fraction of that amount could have transformed Afghan society from 15th to 21st century. What was needed was a massive infrastructure development program that would have created employment and won the hearts and minds of all Afghans.

Today, Afghanistan is nothing but a picture of death and destruction, a fine legacy to leave behind after spending $1 trillion. U.S. taxpayers have every right to question their Generals and their Government about the wasteful spending of their tax dollars.

Additionally, U.S. Government's flawed attempts to leave behind a strong Central Government and Afghan Armed Forces comprising mainly of minority ethnic groups, is doomed to failure.Afghanistan has never had a strong Federal system. Its 30+ plus provinces have always had self rule. The provinces accepted King Zahir Shah as a figurehead while they governed themselves and that is the only system that will succeed in Afghanistan.

If U.S. is serious about ending the war and wants to see Afghanistan modernize and prosper, the best way is to pull all its troops out COMPLETELY, and allocate development funds on a provincial basis. A $30 billion development aid over five years, administered by the World Bank can accomplish a great deal more than another $100 billion on war over next two years.

Al-Awlaki killing: Can President Obama, Admiral Mullen, Leon Panetta and General Petraeus be charged with murder?

There was much celebration in Washing DC and the rest of US today on the killing of Al-Awlaki and probably rightly so, for he was a terrorist and planned and encouraged attacks on innocent civilians.

However, he was a US citizen and the cowboy behavior that US has adopted in Iraq and Afghanistan of midnight raids and cold blooded executions of supposed enemies, does not hold water in the US. The Administration, the Pentagon and CIA do not have the legal right to execute an American citizen who is suspected of acts of terror.

There is a legal process and there are courts for it. Will Al-Awalaki's father or any other US citizen stand up in a court of law in the US and demand that President Obama, Admiral Mullem, Leon Panetta and General Petraeus be charged with murder for not following the legal process?

It could make for quite a legal situation!

U.S. has lost the war in Afghanistan because of its own failings, scapegoating Pakistan is an easy way out.

Ten years on, U.S. is failing miserably in Afghanistan. Not because it does not have the resources, the manpower or finances (well finances they no longer have), but because of its arrogance and lack of direction.

From day one it played in the hands of minority Northern Alliance, against majority Pashtuns. This was a disastrous policy and it has taken U.S. nine years to reluctantly begin to realize the folly.

According to former CIA officials Osama bin Laden was within sight and earshot and could have been finished off at Tora Bora, but he was deliberately allowed to escape, perhaps Iraq war was already on the agenda for the bunch of war criminals led by George W. Bush. The Afghan war could have ended within six months and the trillions of dollars that have been wasted over ten years bankrupting the U.S. could have been saved. Why does the Congress not investigate this, rather than waste time on meaningless partisan bickering?

However despicable the Taliban's domestic policy and attitude towards women, they did not attack the United States. By making them its enemy, U.S. took on a well armed group that does not fear for life. U.S. was advised time and again to negotiate with Taliban to bring the war to an end. But with its military might, how could a super power like U.S. negotiate with a bunch of rag tag warriors? This is exactly how the Vietnam war was lost and this is how the Afghan is now being lost.

It has taken U.S. ten years to start a dialogue but only with Taliban of choice. This is too little too late. Had a proper dialogue been undertaken nine, eight, seven or even five years ago, Taliban may have been ready to talk peace. Now they know that U.S. is beat and ready to quit, they may not be keen on a dialogue.

To blame Pakistan for the attack on U.S. Embassy in Kabul is preposterous. U.S. still cannot see reality in the face and to heap the blame on Pakistan is an easy way out. However, it is time for U.S. to admit its failure and utilize Pakistan's help to start a meaningful and a conclusive dialogue with all Afghan factions so as to hand over Afghanistan to Afghans, sooner rather than later.

Ten years of U.S. war has ravaged that miserable country. The alleged war crimes committed by U.S. forces and contractors at Bagram prison are probably far worse than Abu Ghuraib, only this time a lid has been kept on them so information has not leaked out. Hopefully one day, the U.S. military generals and policy makers will be hauled before the International Criminal Court to face their come uppance.

THE AFGHAN WAR IS LOST ALREADY - PRESIDENT OBAMA, BRING THE TROOPS HOME

It is an irony that the Afghan war was won within the first three months and yet it has been lost over ten years.

After the 9/11 attacks in New York, U.S. had a genuine reason to go after Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Within the first two weeks of invasion, Taliban were on the run and after Tora Bora, Al-Qaeda too was substantially decimated.

The war should have ended then. Taliban were weakened and had no hope of coming back to power, they melted away and became part of mainstream Afghan society. A massive development effort for Afghanistan (like the Marshall Plan) should have been initiated to rebuild that war torn country. That would have diverted attention from war to peacetime activities, created jobs, opened schools, markets and built the much lacking infrastructure. Afghanistan could have been brought out of the 15th century into the 20th century (if not the 21st).

History will record that continuation of war beyond the first few months and shift of focus from Al-Qaeda to Taliban was a major policy disaster of the Bush Administration. Fighting Arab and other foreign terrorists in Afghanistan is one thing, but fighting the local populace and that too, the majority Pashtuns (all Taliban are Pashtuns) is another thing altogether.

Afghan history is littered with ruins of foreign armies and so far none of the invaders have succeed. The breakup of Soviet Union following their retreat from Afghanistan is still fresh in our minds.

In foreign policy and war management terms, Bush Administration's early decision to impose rule by minority Northern Alliance over the majority Pashtun would prove to be a fateful decision that would prolong the war for more than ten years. President Obama's folly of owning a lost war and troop increases would only make matters worse. Also, the substantial increase in night raid activities under President Obama involving killing of Afghans, many of whom turn out to be innocent civilians is making matters worse. It is causing anger and providing impetus to Taliban in their recruitment. It is time that these raids stop and stop immediately.

Once it was clear that U.S. had no desire to bring the war to an end and Northern Alliance would continue to hold a lion's share of power, it became a Pashtun v non Pashtun war. America's continued alignment with Northern Alliance and its failure to bring aboard all stakeholders, especially the majority Pashtuns, gave them a reason to consider foreign troops as occupiers rather than as friends who may rid them of Taliban forever. Gradually, Taliban started to resurface, supported and financed by Pashtun leaders, many of whom play a double game - break bread with Americans and finance Taliban at the same time. Even General Petraeus admits that Taliban have an upper hand at this point. It has also been reported that US has taken more casualties in the last month alone than any other month since the war began. If this war is not brought to an end soon, Taliban will be emboldened even more and the outcome could be even worse.

One of the most disastrous policy decisions ever made by some brilliant minds in Washington, D.C. was to encourage Afghans to grow poppy again, the production of which had previously been eradicated under Taliban regime. Large sums of money started to flow in the hands of drug lords and barons once again and Taliban too found a stream of perpetual cash headed their way. Taliban, who by then were almost extinct started to rise from ruins like the Phoenix from the ashes. The increased revenue improved their morale and strengthen their resolve. They started to re-equip themselves and could even afford to recruit daily wage soldiers to bolster their ranks. While a number of factors have contributed to the outcome of war in Afghanistan, this decision alone has perhaps gone a long way in converting victory into defeat.

The strange thing is that even after ten years, U.S. and NATO have not understood the Afghan Society. Afghans have been warriors for centuries, they do not need military training. By now we all know that Taliban with their minimal training can give a fair fight to U.S. and NATO troops. If anything, Afghans need to be weaned off their weapons. To accomplish this, a major development effort is required. The Afghans have had nothing to do except fight for the last several years. They need to be put to work in factories, road & bridge building, school and market building etc., so they can begin to provide a decent living for their families without fighting wars.

US has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on this war and there is nothing to show for it. Afghanistan is still a war ravaged backward country. Rebuilding that country would have cost a great deal less and not so many lives would have been lost.

This war has already been lost and it is time to put an end to it and bring all soldiers home. Let the Afghans decide their own fate. They did it before the Soviet invasion and they will do so again after the withdrawal.

General McChrystal - Good Riddance, Now it is time to bring in a new Defense Secretary

General McChrystal's insubordination and inappropriate comments about his superiors and especially the Commander-in-Chief earned him a well deserved sack. Anything less would have been perceived as a weakness on President Obama's part.

Letting McChrystal off the hook would have opened doors to insubordination from other military officers. What is surprising however, is the rumor that Defense Secretary Robert Gates pleaded for a lesser punishment. If this is true, then it is a matter of great concern. How can the Defense Secretary not ask for full and proper punishment. In fact, it is President Obama's open mindedness to invite the General to the Oval office to explain his conduct, otherwise he could have just asked the Defense Secretary to relieve him of his command.

Robert Gates has served many a President, but he may have too much baggage from the past. In these changed times, President Obama needs to appoint a new Defense Secretary to implement his policies, someone whose thinking is completely aligned with the President.

The war in Iraq may be winding down, though the after effects of a total withdrawal are yet to emerge. However, things are not going well in Afghanistan. McChrystal may have befriended the Afghans, but his surge is not working. Taliban are a different breed altogether, each time NATO forces launch a major attack, they simply melt away and regroup to start the fight elsewhere another day. Instead of reducing, their numbers are increasing.

It is time to rethink the Afghan strategy entirely. No foreign force has ever defeated the Afghan people, and this war IS against the Afghan people, be they under the garb of Taliban. It is time to wind down the war and implement an exit strategy based on a political settlement. For that, the President needs to put on his thinking cap and he also needs new leadership at Pentagon.

IS OSAMA BIN LADEN DEAD?

Why does President Obama talk about killing or capturing Osama bin Laden when speculation is that the terrorist died soon after Tora Bora. Logic dictates that a sick man with a bad kidney needing regular dialysis could not possibly have survived this long in the rugged mountains.

There were reports suggesting that his funeral took place soon after he escaped from US attack on Tora Bora. He has certainly not been seen ever since though there have been a couple of video tapes. The last one showing him a lot younger with a totally black beard. There have also been occasional audio tapes, but both the videos and audios appear highly suspect.

With all the resources at their disposal, should US intelligence agencies not know whether he is dead or alive? And if he is dead then why is "killing or capturing" bogey still being paraded around?

President Obama came to office on a platform of change. Should he not tell the American public what he knows?

And if intelligence agencies do not know whether OBL is dead or alive, then it does not say much for their intelligence gathering. Then what are US troops doing in Afghanistan, when it is not even known whether enemy number one exists or not?

Perhaps it is time to pull all troops out of Afghanistan and let the Afghans decide their own fate.

AFGHANISTAN VOTE RECOUNT IS A COMPLETE FARCE AND A FRAUD

The Afghan Presidential elections were rigged in many ways, however the vote recount is even bigger farce. It seems that EU & US representatives conducting this exercise had a pre-determined goal to bring Hamid Karzai's vote below 50% in order to call a run off election.

The two Afghan individuals involved with recount effort resigned in disgust a few days ago, when they discovered the real mandate of EU representatives. It is amazing how Mr. Karzai's vote has been brought down to 49.6% (just below 50%) to order a recount. First the elections were a farce and now the recount is an even bigger farce.

If the intention is to establish democracy and rule of law in Afghanistan, then this is a total violation of all democratic norms. The Afghan populace has no interest whatsoever in these goings on as they don't see their life changing either under Karzai or Abdullah. After all these two gentlemen have been center stage for last eight years and are responsible for the failure of Afghan civil and military administration. Efforts are now afoot by EU & US to get Karzai to form a coalition with Abdullah, a sure recipe for disaster.

In the last elections, less than 30% Afghan electorate voted and when fraudulent votes are counted out, the count is probably less than 25%. In a run off election less than 20% are likely to vote. If President Obama and Hillary Clinton are betting on this democratic move, then it is doomed to failure.

What is needed is to rescind the fraudulent elections, disqualify Karzai and Abdullah for they represent drug and crime syndicates, form a Government of national unity of all Afghan ethnic groups for a period of one year and then have fresh elections. That would allow for healing to take place in fractious Afghan society and also for new leadership to emerge. The people of Afghanistan need to be inclusive in this process, they are then likely be more involved in the democratic process.

A foreign imposed formula is only likely to bring more chaos, more ethnic rivalry and destabilization of the region resulting in foreign troops having to stay longer than they need to. Do the US public have the stomach for US forces to stay there another five years and can the US Military sustain continued war, I think not.

PRESIDENT OBAMA, DO NOT SEND MORE TROOPS TO AFGHANISTAN

The Generals are saying that without more troops war effort in Afghanistan will be lost. What they cannot visualize is that with more troops, failure will come sooner.. Many military and independent observers admit that 80% of Afghanistan is already lost to Taliban and this, after eight years of military effort!

Those of us old enough to remember early days of Vietnam war, remember well that troop levels were around 50,000 at first, then 100,000, then 250,000 and still the Generals wanted more, saying that we can only defeat the enemy if we have more troops. President Johnson listened to them and increased troop levels to over 400,000. United Sates still lost the war and to this day, hasty retreat of U.S. troops from Vietnam haunts many a mind.

Afghanistan is no different, same scenario will be played out again if troops are increased, only more American young men and women will die, more Afghans will be bombed and the resultant hatred against the U.S. will last for another 20 to 30 years. It is time to learn a lesson from history. "Nations who do not learn from past mistakes are bound to repeat them".

It is no fault of the Generals that they ask for more troops. This is what they know - have strength to fight the enemy. Generals are no politicians and it is not in their purview to think politically, that is the job of the politicians and the President.

It is still not too late to achieve a reconciliation in Afghanistan. Mullah Omar and other Taliban leaders have hinted more than once that they are willing to talk. U.S. has the means and the motive to accomplish a reconciliation. What is needed is an immediate ceasefire and a conference of all Afghan players, Northern Alliance, Hazaras, Pashtuns, Taliban and all others. U.S. and NATO should tell them that if you want foreign troops to leave, they have to reconcile and get along with each other.

Annul the Presidential elections and hold fresh elections after a peace conference so all parties can freely participate and if the people of Afghanistan want an Islamic Government, let them have one, only do not isolate them like before, so they go to bed with terrorists. Bring the new Afghan Government into the fold of international community and let them realize their responsibilities to the international community.

Afghanistan and its people have suffered a great deal in the super power rivalry. It is time this country was at peace and started rebuilding its infrastructure, an education system and created job opportunities for its young so they don't follow religious extremists. A Marshall style reconstruction plan for Afghanistan and Western part of Pakistan could change the political landscape of that part of the world and yet, it would cost a great deal less than extending the war.

President Obama, do not send more troops to Afghanistan. Start a reconciliation process in that country and bring all American troops home from Afghanistan within a year.

THE SHAM ELECTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN

Vote rigging, ballot box stuffing, duplicate ballots, validity and final outcome of elections in doubt, no we are not talking about Iranian elections but Afghan elections supervised by U.S. and NATO. In one District alone, not a single vote was caste and yet all 38,000 votes showed up in one candidate's column. Where is the outrage? Why are the U.S. leaders not raving and ranting about it and why is Mr. Fareed Zakaria not blowing hot and cold on CNN's GPS Program?

Before the elections, NATO's representative in charge of overseeing the elections foolishly claimed an expected 80% voter turnout. The actual number seems well below 30%. Even in India, a country with perpetual 62 year democracy and frequent election history, voter turnout has not yet reached 80%, it is usually around 60%.

Obviously NATO does not understand Afghanistan where half the population i.e. women are not allowed by their husbands/fathers to go out of their houses let alone participate in elections. This shows a complete lack of understanding of Afghan culture and realities on the ground. It begs the question, if after eight years of presence on the ground, U.S. and NATO still do not understand Afghanistan, then what are they doing there?

The West is trying to succeed in Afghanistan by pinning its hopes on two men with tainted background. Mr. Hamid Karzai's is alleged to have enriched himself through corruption and by giving free reign to his brother, reported to be the biggest drug czar in Afghanistan. Mr. Abdullah Abdullah represents the Northern Alliance, a group with criminal history. When Kabul fell during the civil war under Alliance's control for a couple of months, they looted every house, murdered many able bodied men and raped as many women as they could. Also, a component of the Alliance headed by Rashid Dostum of Mazar-e-Sharif, who after the U.S. invasion is alleged to have killed over 1,000 people by locking them in cargo containers for months on end without food or water. Mr. Abdullah Abdullah may not himself be involved in any killings, but he is supported by these criminal elements. Hoping that people like Karzai and Abdullah can bring renaissance to Afghanistan is like handing over power to the I.R.A. in Northern Ireland and the Mafia in the U.S.

Afghanistan needs reconciliation and new leadership. It needs new faces and until new leadership is developed, civility and peace is not likely return to that country. The West's efforts of nation building are doomed to failure as long as it continues to provide oxygen to leaders with criminal background in Afghanistan.

US IS LOSING THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN, IN PRESENT CONDITIONS AFGHAN ELECTIONS WOULD BE MEANINGLESS AND SHOULD BE POSTPONED

US is fighting an un-winnable war in Afghanistan. They are hoping to achieve results by use of military means that neither the British Raj could in a hundred years nor the Soviets with a much larger manpower and equipment. US Military Commanders know that they are losing this war, only no one has the courage to stand up and tell it to the Administration. There are no General Shinsekis any more.

The Afghan elections due to be held in August will be meaningless under these conditions and should be postponed for at least another six months. An interim Administration comprised of impartial and moderate elements (not Zalmay Khalilzad as he will be seen as a US plant) should replace the corrupt Government of Hamid Karzai. To achieve fair and impartial elections, interim leaders must pledge not to be candidates in the elections.

It is time to bring this war to an end and settle Afghanistan politically and not militarily. Continuation of this war is destroying the entire region as Taliban cross over into Pakistan and create problems for their security forces. After initial contacts are established with Taliban there should be a cease fire under which all military activity comes to a halt. Then a conference of all Afghan players (including Taliban) should be called to discuss participation in next elections. Without stopping the war a political settlement is unlikely, so fighting will continue. After the disastrous Iraq war, US public has little capacity to stomach this war and if things continue on the present course, US will probably have to up and leave in a couple of years, leaving behind a bigger mess.

It is imperative that military activities come to an end and a political solution starts to take hold as soon as possible. It is a fallacy that Taliban can be defeated and then development can begin in Afghanistan. Taliban are not likely to be defeated so real development cannot begin. How can foreign troops hope to defeat the locals who are supported by some of the same war lords who claim to side with NATO and at the same time finance Taliban from their profitable poppy crops. The decision to allow Afghans to grow poppy (completely eradicated during Taliban rule as un Islamic) has been one of the biggest mistakes of Afghan war. More than likely Mr. Karzai and his henchmen were behind this decision, no wonder his brother is now allegedly the largest drug dealer in Afghanistan.

Nearly 50% of Afghan population is Pashtun and yet for the last five years they have not had proper representation in the Afghan Government. After the US invasion, most dominant players running the Government were from the Northern Alliance, a minority non-Pashtun group defeated by Taliban earlier. They forced their will over Hamid Karzai and virtually controlled the Government. Situation has changed somewhat since then, but still Pashtun majority does not have a fair representation.

To start an all party dialogue, it is important to bring Taliban to the table, but this will not happen under a Karzai Government. A neutral interim administration comprised of elders is much more likely to make it happen. First, the US has to realize that Taliban are inclusive and not exclusive to Afghan society, so they need to be brought to the conference table. Some Afghan elders have already shown willingness to help start this process and this should be taken advantage of.

Only a fair and impartial election with all parties participating (including Taliban) can bring a representative Government to Afghanistan. Ever since Soviet invasion in 1979 Afghanistan has been devastated by war and the country needs a major economic plan. Pakistan has also paid a heavy price for supporting and training Mujaheddin against Soviet forces and by the influx of three million Afghan refugees, one million of which still reside there. Also, influx of Afghan weapons into Pakistan since 1979 has played havoc in their society, virtually destroying law and order.

Instead of spending one hundred billion dollars on a losing war, US and NATO should create a 'Marshall, style plan for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Probably a much lower figure than the cost of war (say) $25 billion will bring massive development to both countries, creating new schools, building new roads and markets, airports etc.

Peaceful Afghanistan and Pakistan can start building oil and gas pipelines from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to the Arabian sea away past the Straits of Hormuz to ensure safe and unlimited supply of oil and gas to US, Europe, and the Far East in addition to meeting energy needs of these two countries.

U. S. Policy is Flawed in Afghanistan

President Obama's new policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan is seriously flawed and sending more American and Nato troops is fraught with danger.

The question is, who is the U.S. fighting in Afghanistan, the Afghan people? How can a foreign force fight the locals and on what basis - they are fundamentalist fanatics? But aren't there fundamentalist fanatics around the world including the U.S.? If the U.S. is fighting Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, didn't the U.S. have ample opportunity to eliminate them in the past. According to some of the members of CIA's advanced team of operatives (well documented on CNN) they had Osama bin Ladin within sights at Tora Bora even before the Afghan invasion started but Donald Rumsfeld refused to order air raids! Perhaps OBL was needed alive to provide a reason for Iraq invasion.

There is no doubt that Taliban are extremist religious fanatics who wish to impose their archaic view of Islam over Afghanistan. There is also no doubt that this extreme view of religion is rejected by a vast majority of 1.3 billion Muslims around the world. But Taliban have never attacked the U.S. forces until they invaded Afghanistan, so why is the U.S. fighting them and to what end? If the purpose is to bring Taliban into mainstream fold so they moderate their views and become a useful member of the society, bombing and killing them is not going to accomplish the objective.

It is important to understand the ethnic mix of Afghans which is comprised of Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Shias and the majority Pashtuns. All of the Taliban come from majority Pashtun tribes. Pashtuns straddle across the Pakistan border in Baluchistan and North West Frontier province. The ties between Pashtun tribes go back thousands of years and artificial borders are meaningless to them. In its invasion of Afghanistan, the U.S. was misled by the Northern Alliance (comprising minority non-Pashtun groups) that Taliban is the enemy. Though Hamid Karzai is a Pashtun, but minority non-Pashtuns have held sway over the Afghan Government ever since the U.S. invasion. This has caused a massive backlash amongst Pashtuns who feel they are being deprived of their fair right by the U.S. and its allies. As a result they support and finance the Taliban because they feel they are fighting their battle.

Some brilliant minds in Rumsfeld's Pentagon and the CIA also exacerbated the problem by allowing Afghans to re cultivate poppy, which was completely eradicated by previous Taliban Government. The thinking perhaps was that if Afghans are happy with their cash crop, they will not attack U.S. and Nato forces. But guess what, the cash from poppy crops is flowing into the hands of Taliban with which they are buying weapons to kill U.S. and Nato soldiers.

The solution of Afghanistan does not lie in war, drone attacks or in killing Taliban. Didn't the Soviet Union try this already with a much larger and a more equipped force and failed miserable at it? If the U.S. continues to follow this course, the outcome will be no different. In addition, U.S. drone attacks on Pakistan border areas are radicalizing the Pashtun belt to such an extent that they are becoming a menace to the Pakistan Government to the extent of destabilizing Pakistan. Many in Pakistan believe that sooner or later U.S. will walk away from Afghanistan and leave this enormous problem in their lap, just as it did after the withdrawal of Soviet forces leaving a destabilized Afghanistan in Pakistan's lap.

What Afghanistan needs is peace and security and that will be achieved by dialogue. Pashtuns need a fair share of power and Taliban need to be brought to the negotiating table. A Government of national unity needs to be formed in Afghanistan and foreign troops need to leave soon thereafter. Foreign troops are the main cause of fighting, Pashtuns & Taliban look at them as foreign invaders just as they did the Soviet troops. Only the United Nations troops should be stationed in Afghanistan to ensure stability and peace between various tribes.

Afghanistan has been at war since 1979 and it is time to stop. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan need peace. The drone attacks on Pakistan have accomplished absolutely nothing (regardless of Pentagon's convoluted claims) except for killing poor villagers in the border areas.

What is needed is a massive development effort. A 'Marshall' type plan to pull out Afghanistan and Pakistan's frontier region from the 15th century to the present can bring enormous benefits and change the mindset of the people in that region. Continuation of present policy of more troops and more war will only turn Afghanistan into another Vietnam for President Obama. One hopes he has the foresight not to fall into that trap.

President Obama & Afghanistan

President Obama is getting ready to send another 17,000 troops to Afghanistan. No doubt, things are not going well in that war and Taliban have gained ground lately. But is sending more troops a wise move or will Afghanistan become for Obama what Vietnam became for Johnson - a great folly?

After 9/11 United States had justification to attack Afghanistan because that is where Al-Qaeda planned and perpetrated attacks on New York. The initial military operation was well accomplished, but the subsequent political moves have not been savvy. United States has a fundamental deficiency that not having been a colonial power like U.K. and France, it has never had detailed ground knowledge of far off places like Afghanistan.

The British fought the Afghans for nearly 200 years and could never gain complete control. The Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan with 140,000 troops, air planes, tanks, artillery and all kinds of weaponry and yet it lost the war and had to withdraw in shame leading to its break up. Now the U.S. and its NATO allies want to gain control of Afghanistan with just over 50,000 troops, so what are the chances of NATO's success?

The Afghan problem is no longer military (that purpose was achieved immediate after the US dislodged the Taliban), but it is a political problem. The ethnic Afghan make up comprises Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks and other smaller groups. Pashtuns are in majority and all of the Taliban are Pashtun. Though Mr. Hamid Karzai is a Pashtun, but for many years now the US has vested major power centers with Northern Alliance players and that is not acceptable to the Pashtun majority. After Taliban were dislodged, what was needed was a unity Government with fair representation to all including majority representation to Pashtuns, but that has not happened to this day and that is the root cause of the Afghan problem.

Some of the moderate Taliban were willing to talk to the US to become part of Afghan Government. The former Taliban Foreign Minister, Mullah Mutawakkal offered to mediate with Taliban but because of domination by Non-Pashtun Northern Alliance, both the US and Afghan Government refused to deal with the Taliban. Over time sympathies for Taliban have increased. Various Pashtun Government officials, businessmen and warlords may appear to be with Karzai Government, but they not only sympathize but also fund the Taliban's fight because they feel it is their fight too.

Another disastrous policy that has had enormous impact on Afghan situation is re- plantation of poppy (Taliban Government had completely eradicated it). Some brilliant minds in the CIA & Bush Administration felt that if allowed to grow poppy, Afghans will be happy and content and not fight against them! Well, the outcome has been the opposite, funds generated by sale of poppy are flowing into Taliban hands to purchase more guns and hardware to extend the fight with.

Another significant difficulty in fighting this war is that NATO is a foreign force and Taliban are local. The populace supports the fighters the same way they supported Mujaheddin against Soviet invasion. They consider NATO forces as foreign invaders and feel justified to fight them. The Afghan Government of Hamid Karzai is impotent and considered a puppet regime despite being democratically elected. In reality Mr. Karzai's domain does not extend beyond Kabul and the rest of the country is the wild wild west.

The resolution of Afghan situation is in bringing all parties to the table for a dialogue including the Taliban. After all, it is their country too. Fresh elections need to be called based on fair representation for all to replace the current Northern Alliance dominated Western backed Government. Also NATO troops need to leave Afghanistan as they will always be treated as a foreign occupying force and as long they remain in Afghanistan, Taliban will fight them. They need to be replaced by UN troops drawn from a broad spectrum of nations to oversee peace.

What Afghanistan needs more than anything else is a major reconstruction effort to bring the country out of fifteenth century into the twenty first. Instead of wasting money on fighting, a $50 billion Marshall Plan is needed to build infrastructure, educational and health institutions and capacity building. That entire Frontier region of Pakistan and the whole of Afghanistan could benefit substantially from such an effort. Taliban could be history if an honest effort is made in this direction. Just sending more troops could increase the fight and make Afghanistan into another Vietnam with no end in sight.