Friday, February 26, 2016

Republican Race for Nomination

Rubio & Cruz, can one of these contenders pose a serious challenge to

Trump for Republican nomination?

To win the Republican Party's nomination a candidate has to win 1237 delegates from a total 2472. So far Trump has 81 Rubio & Cruz 17 each. The challenge seems insurmountable.  Trump is also  leading in 10 of 11 states coming up on Super Tuesday, March 1. New York Times says that after super Tuesday Trump could end up with 479 delegates to Cruz & Rubio's 164 each. Though in reality Cruz could have more as he is leading his home state of Texas, which has a rich haul of 155 delegates. The question then remains how do Rubio or Cruz stop Trump running away with the nomination?

The answer lies in the outcome of March 5 primary which includes Rubio's home state of Florida, with 99 delegates, where Trump is currently leading Rubio by ten points. But after last night's mauling of Trump in the debate, the tide could turn in Rubio's favor. If Rubio loses his home state, it is game over for him, but if he wins Florida, then Trump could be in some difficulty as he may not garner majority delegates in California and New York, which are liberal states and not too enamored with his shenanigans.

The way things stand right now, Trump looks likely to get enough delegates from other states to win nomination outright irrespective of the fact that Republican establishment despises him and want to see him lose. However, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that come July 18, 2016 the start date of Republican convention in Cleveland that no single candidate has 1237 delegates. There  will be horse trading and maneuvering to win or steal delegates. But if still no candidate has a majority, all delegates will be set free and will be free to vote for any candidate of their choosing. In such a scenario Republican establishment could prevail and maneuver Rubio's nomination. So if Trump wants the nomination, he has to win outright majority of delegates.

In the attached article New York Times presents a scenario where Rubio could lose every state and still win the nomination:

The pity of it all is that the most likable candidate, John Kasich, Governor of the crucial state of Ohio and the candidate likely to present a challenge to Hillary Clinton is too far behind with only six delegates. He may be a formidable candidate for Vice President though. In recent years no candidate has won the Presidential race without winning Ohio and Kasich may be able to deliver that state come November elections.