THE STATE OF U.S. PRESIDENTAL ELECTION

        (Picture courtesy Reason.com)

Twenty-four days to go to the Presidential election on November 5, being the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Kamala Harris received a boost after Biden pulled out (or was forced out) of the race. At one point she was leading in opinion polls by 5-7%. but that was a post nomination bubble which seemed to have subsided.   to Real Clear Politics  Poll Average she is now leading by1.8% at 49% to Trump's 47.2%, i.e. a wafer thin lead and within the margin of error.

The Electoral College however, presents a different picture, where Trump leads by 219 to 215 votes with 104 votes to be decided in toss up states. Trump is leading in six of the seven states, albeit by a thin margin. But he seems to have taken the momentum back from Harris as a month ago, they were both leading in 3 states and one was a tie. The betting odds have also shifted significantly in Trump's favor  at 53.6% to Harris' 45%. The betting odds people usually have a pulse of the situation and that is why the odds have increased in Trump's favor. 

REAL CLEAR POLITICS ELECTION 2024

NATIONAL RCP AVERAGE

49.0

Harris (+1.8)

Trump

47.2

Latest National Polls

RCP ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP

219

Trump

104

Harris

215

Latest State Polls

If RCP polls are accurate, they project Trump to have 312 electoral votes to Harris' 236, a candidate needs 270 to win the White House.

While the race is still very tight and one mistake by a candidate can shift the balance, but the way things look at this point, Trump looks like the next President of the United States. 

  WILL MICHIGAN DECIDE THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE?

(Photo courtesy Yahoo.com)

For a long time Ohio was the deciding state in Presidential elections, but it seems this year the focus has changed to Michigan. Of the seven toss up states, Trump leads in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, while Harris leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan with Nevada a dead heat.

Kamala's post convention froth is settling down and she seems to be slowly losing the advantage. Her CNN interview did not help much and this while Dana Bash was soft on her and spared her tough questions. It all depends on how the respective campaigns do over the two months. The betting odds have improved in Trump's favor. Opinion polls don't involve any money, the betting odds do.

Another major challenge Democrats face is the control of Senate. Michigan has an open Senate seat after retirement of Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers is in the race against Democrat Elissa Slotkin. It is the most closely contested race. If the Republicans wins the race, it will be after 30 years in Michigan that a Republican Senator would have won a Senate seat.  It will also mean that the Republican Party could win the majority in the Senate.

(Mike Rogers, picture courtesy USA Today)

Mike Rogers is a former FBI agent, has strong views on the economy and may just upset the Senatorial equation.

IF NOT INDICTED BY FBI RE EMAIL ISSUE, HILLARY CLINTON LOOKS LIKE DEFEATING TRUMP BY A LANDSLIDE

  (Picture courtesy www.celebuzz.com)

After a three and half hour voluntary interview with FBI this weekend, it is still not clear whether  FBI would indict Hillary Clinton on the email issue. Pundits give it a 3% chance, but even 1% could come back to bite. Assuming there is no indictment, Hillary Clinton is running away with the prize. Trump is losing ground in all swing States even in some traditional Republican States.

The latest polls in 'Real Clear Politics' Blog present the following picture in swing States:

       State                                                            Clinton%           Trump%
     Pennsylvania                                                  46.0                   43.7
     Florida                                                            46.5                   42.8
     Ohio                                                                44.3                   41.8
     Virginia                                                           43.8                   39.8
     North Carolina                                                44.0                   43.3
     New Hampshire                                              44.5                   41.8
     Georgia                                                           40.8                   45.0

Trump leads in only one of these States and Georgia is not a true swing State as it traditionally votes Republican, except on certain occasions.

Trump will get a bump in the polls after Republican Convention in two weeks, however that bump will mostly be canceled out by Democratic Convention later. Also, President Obama is actively campaigning for Hillary Clinton. Currently he is sitting high on popularity levels and attracts many young voters.

An indictment by FBI could upset the whole apple cart, it could send Trump soaring in the polls, but it would also bring in new faces as candidates, some of whom like the Bloomberg, former Mayor of New York, could severely challenge Trump. An FBI decision should be coming down shortly.

Have they won their respective party nominations, almost certainly.

SUPER TUESDAY - REPUBLICAN QUAGMIRE, HAS TRUMP BEEN CHECKMATED

              OR IS IT A CASE OF NONE OF THE ABOVE?

Donald Trump was supposed to win all but one State in Tuesday's primaries, but he ended up with only seven, Cruz won three and Rubio won one. For a candidate to be nominated for the Presidential race he needs to win 1237 delegates by the time Republican Party convention comes around in July. So far, the delegate count is as follows:

                                          Trump     315
                                          Cruz        205
                                          Rubio      106

The Republican establishment hates Trump with a passion. They feel he is crazy and high jacking their party. They equally despise Cruz for his obstructionist attitude in the Senate and for shutting down Government funding a couple of years ago. They appear to have coalesced behind Rubio for now and seem to be using him as the attack dog against Trump and with some success too. Rubio's sharp attacks on Trump since last week calling him a con man, may have made some voters think twice about voting for him.

If Trump wins 1237 delegates by the convention, there is nothing the Republican establishment can do as he will then be the Party nominee to challenge Hillary Clinton, who with 1055 delegates out of 2382 required is nearly half way to the nomination.

However, if no candidate wins 1237 delegates, the Republican establishment will then come into play. They could bring an outsider as a compromise candidate and maneuver the freed up delegates to vote for a new candidate. Rubio could then be rewarded as a Vice Presidential candidate. He is too inexperienced to be a President, but with him on the ticket, Republicans could garner some of the Hispanic electorate, which they normally don't do well with.

There is some speculation already on who who could be such a candidate? One of these two gentlemen would most probably be ready to step in:


Mitt Romney


Mayor Bloomberg, former Mayor of New York

However for this to happen, Donald Trump has to fail in several States and not get the 1237 delegates required for the nomination.

Republican Race for Nomination

Rubio & Cruz, can one of these contenders pose a serious challenge to







Trump for Republican nomination?


To win the Republican Party's nomination a candidate has to win 1237 delegates from a total 2472. So far Trump has 81 Rubio & Cruz 17 each. The challenge seems insurmountable.  Trump is also  leading in 10 of 11 states coming up on Super Tuesday, March 1. New York Times says that after super Tuesday Trump could end up with 479 delegates to Cruz & Rubio's 164 each. Though in reality Cruz could have more as he is leading his home state of Texas, which has a rich haul of 155 delegates. The question then remains how do Rubio or Cruz stop Trump running away with the nomination?

The answer lies in the outcome of March 5 primary which includes Rubio's home state of Florida, with 99 delegates, where Trump is currently leading Rubio by ten points. But after last night's mauling of Trump in the debate, the tide could turn in Rubio's favor. If Rubio loses his home state, it is game over for him, but if he wins Florida, then Trump could be in some difficulty as he may not garner majority delegates in California and New York, which are liberal states and not too enamored with his shenanigans.

The way things stand right now, Trump looks likely to get enough delegates from other states to win nomination outright irrespective of the fact that Republican establishment despises him and want to see him lose. However, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that come July 18, 2016 the start date of Republican convention in Cleveland that no single candidate has 1237 delegates. There  will be horse trading and maneuvering to win or steal delegates. But if still no candidate has a majority, all delegates will be set free and will be free to vote for any candidate of their choosing. In such a scenario Republican establishment could prevail and maneuver Rubio's nomination. So if Trump wants the nomination, he has to win outright majority of delegates.

In the attached article New York Times presents a scenario where Rubio could lose every state and still win the nomination:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/27/upshot/how-marco-rubio-could-lose-every-state-on-super-tuesday-and-still-win.html

The pity of it all is that the most likable candidate, John Kasich, Governor of the crucial state of Ohio and the candidate likely to present a challenge to Hillary Clinton is too far behind with only six delegates. He may be a formidable candidate for Vice President though. In recent years no candidate has won the Presidential race without winning Ohio and Kasich may be able to deliver that state come November elections.