WILL MICHIGAN DECIDE THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE?

(Photo courtesy Yahoo.com)

For a long time Ohio was the deciding state in Presidential elections, but it seems this year the focus has changed to Michigan. Of the seven toss up states, Trump leads in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, while Harris leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan with Nevada a dead heat.

Kamala's post convention froth is settling down and she seems to be slowly losing the advantage. Her CNN interview did not help much and this while Dana Bash was soft on her and spared her tough questions. It all depends on how the respective campaigns do over the two months. The betting odds have improved in Trump's favor. Opinion polls don't involve any money, the betting odds do.

Another major challenge Democrats face is the control of Senate. Michigan has an open Senate seat after retirement of Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers is in the race against Democrat Elissa Slotkin. It is the most closely contested race. If the Republicans wins the race, it will be after 30 years in Michigan that a Republican Senator would have won a Senate seat.  It will also mean that the Republican Party could win the majority in the Senate.

(Mike Rogers, picture courtesy USA Today)

Mike Rogers is a former FBI agent, has strong views on the economy and may just upset the Senatorial equation.

US Debt Ceiling - Just to Defeat Obama in 2012, will the Republicans sink the US Economy?

The Republican Congressmen and Senators are playing an extremely dangerous game with their nation's finances. In their desire to defeat Barack Obama in 2012, they are pushing the issue of National Debt Ceiling to the brink.

If Congress does not approve an increase in country's debt ceiling by August 2,2011, United States Government will default on its debt obligations at the rate of $4 billion a day. The will result in lowering of US credit rating from AAA and no one will be willing to lend money to US Government unless there is a substantial increase in interest rates.

The interest rate hike will hit the already weak economy hard, pushing unemployment to double digits, the housing market will suffer a down turn like it has never been seen before. Already some 29 million homes are under water i.e. their mortgages are higher than market values, increase in mortgage defaults will bankrupt many US banks and unlike 2008, Uncle Sam will not be able to save them this time as Uncle Sam will itself be bankrupt.

Are the Republicans really this desperate to defeat Obama that they will sink the entire US ship? Many think they are playing brinkmanship and will come good at the last minute to avoid default. I hope they are right, because otherwise they have to be extremely despondent to do this to their own country.

The US default will also impact the World economy. The already suffering European economies of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and others will sink even further, resulting in a possible breakup of EU or the Euro as a single EU currency.

And why are Republicans not willing to increase the debt ceiling even once in Obama's three years, when they raised it no less than seven times in Bush's eight years? Apparently they want more tax cuts for the wealthy and oppose closing tax loopholes for big Corporations. They want to eliminate Medicare and cut Social Security for the poor. The American public knows well that the high debt is a Republican legacy from George Bush's ill planned wars and tax cuts cuts for the rich.

If a default occurs, Obama will probably take the high road and heap entire blame on Republicans and rather than winning the White House in 2012, Republicans could end up losing majority in the House and many Senate seats too.

In case of default, US voters have only themselves to blame for giving Republicans and Tea Party candidates a majority in the The House in 2010 despite George Bush's disastrous eight year Presidency.

The Tea Party Movement - Is It A Genuine Conservative Movement Against Big Spending or Just An Assembley of Power Hungry Racists?

The Tea Party Movement's protests against big Government and big spending make absolute sense. After all the U.S. is deep in debt and each year, Budget deficits have increased since Bill Clinton left office. It is no brainer that U.S. must bring down its budget deficits and start paying down its debt to curtail it to a more acceptable level of 30 to 40% of GDP compared to the current level of 80 to 90% of GDP.

The amount of money spent on saving the big banks, the auto industry, AIG and such like, have increased national debt enormously. So, protesting about big spending is quite appropriate. But where was the Tea Party Movement when George W. Bush was busy launching an illegal invasion of Iraq costing the U.S. taxpayer nearly a trillion dollars and giving tax cuts to the wealthy at the time of war adding another one and a half trillion dollars to deficit? Where was the Tea Party Movement when Bush merrily turned Bill Clinton's budget surpluses to deficits year after year. If the Tea Party Movement really stands for fiscal conservatism, then why did they not have rowdy gatherings like they do now or organize big rallies on the Mall in Washington D.C. to protest against Bush Administration's disastrous economic policies. The huge budget deficits that now face the nation and the financial crisis that ensued in 2008 are a direct result of those policies.

The Tea Partiers did not raise their voice during Bush era because this movement is not for fiscal conservatism - that is just a facade. They are (at least most of them) a group of nut job racists who malign and blame Barrack Obama for everything as they find it hard to accept an African American occupying the White House. So, when they talk about taking America back, who are they taking America back from?

The Tea Party Movement has won some primary races within the Republican party and no doubt will win some elections too. Momentarily, it may appear a setback for the Democrats, but in reality, it is the Republicans who will lose. Having these crazies in their midst is going to be a major headache for the Republican leadership in the House and Senate.

Some examples of the Tea Party craziness:

Carl Paladino running for New York Governor admits to fathering an illegitimate child, but blames his Democrat opponent for immorality.

Sharon Angle in a race against Harry Reid in Arizona sees ghosts of thousands of terrorists crossing the border from Canada.

Rand Paul wants restaurant owners to decide who comes into their restaurants - in other words racial segregation all over again.

Christine O'Donnell is having to put out ads saying, she is not a witch!

Joe Miller, the Senate candidate from Alaska has a journalist handcuffed for asking questions by his thugs aka private security.

And finally, Sarah Palin wants Muslims to "RUFUDIATE" the mosque in New York.

It will be fun watching some of these jokers occupy the House and Senate seats.

ARIZONA IMMIGRATION LAW - IS THIS A PLOY BY THE REPUBLICANS TO BAIT PRESIDENT OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATS?

Arizona's recent passage of Immigration Law is not only contentious but possibly even unconstitutional, as only the Federal Government has power over immigration matters. However, that is for the courts to decide and it will not be surprising if constitutional petitions head the Supreme Court way in not too distant a future. The Supreme Court may have leanings in a certain direction, but when it comes to interpreting the constitution, the Justices are at their best.

Being a border state, Arizona no doubt has an illegal immigration problem. But, this law may be less to do with that and more to do with tempting President Obama and Democrats to bring about an immigration bill in a haste.

Republicans are still recovering from their failure to block the the Health care bill. They also know that Financial Reform Bill is likely to pass, so they cannot present President Obama victory after victory heading into mid term elections in 2010. An immigration bill before the US House of Representatives and the US Senate is sure to stir passions and anger against a Federal Government providing a route to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

With a strong opposition to such a move in the South and much more so in the border states plus the ire of nearly 10% Americans without jobs, it could create quite a strong anti-immigration lobby in the country, possibly far larger than all of the Latino votes combined. It could prove to be a costly and a high risk strategy for an Administration to bring an immigration bill before the Congress in an election year. Perhaps this is what the Republicans are hoping for. The Arizona Immigration Law could be a bait for President Obama and the Democrats. However, going by President Obama's strategic style so far, he is far ahead in these things than any Republican or Democrat. So, hopefully, he will weigh all options before initiating an immigration bill.

In the meantime, Arizona law could prove to be a good kicking opportunity for the Administration. They could take it to the Supreme Court, hopefully win and garner Latino support without alienating the white voters.

Arizona is already beginning to face the music as more and more people and corporations are planning to stay away from the State. American Immigration Lawyers Association has already canceled its convention in Scottsdale. Other organizations and corporations may follow suit. The hotel industry is complaining bitterly as they rely heavily on immigrants for their staff requirements. All this could have serious consequences for Arizona's economy and its tourist industry.

Withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq - NOW

Britain and Australia are withdrawing their troops from Iraq. I guess they have finally realized the futility of this mission. The U.S. on the other hand is increasing its troop strength. There was a time when increased troops could have helped and that was immediately after the occupation of Baghdad, but now it is way too late.

The continued occupation and presence of U.S. troops is strengthening the hands of insurgents by providing them a rallying cry. It also helps them recruit angry young Iraqis who have lost a father, brother, sister or mother to this war.

Many politicians argue that withdrawal will result in chaos in Iraq. Well isn't there chaos in Iraq now? Similar concerns were expressed before withdrawing from Vietnam, but look at Vietnam now. It is a progressive country with a booming economy. In Iraq most probably things will deteriorate before getting better, but ultimately things will work out and Iraqis need to resolve their own problems. There are many a sensible people amongst the Shias, Sunnis & Kurds who will in the end prevail in bringing together a coalition government which respects the rights of all.

It is futile to expect Congress to take a lead on this. After enthusiastically supporting the war, Republicans do not know where to look now and the Democrats are guilty of doublespeak and no one really knows where they stand.

This is President Bush's war and the sooner he realizes that there is nothing he can do for Iraq, the better.

Mr. President bring the troops home from Iraq - NOW.

State of the Union

A less than impressive 49 minute speech with only a polite applause from the Democrats. Nancy Polosi looked rather uncomfortable except when he talked about health care when all Democrats rose in applause - but Dick Cheney stayed glued to his chair. The Democrats also cheered the President enthusiastically when he talked about immigration reform. Throughout the speech Bush seemed uptight, uncomfortable and less than convincing. He talked about Iraq with not much conviction, an issue that is most important to most Americans.

The strange thing was that Vice President Cheney sat and smirked through most of the speech and Codolozea Rice seemed to be on another planet.

This State of the Union address did not help Republicans any. If the President continues this course the Republicans are in danger of losing more seats in the House and Senate in 2008. With already the possibility of a Democratic President in 2008, checks and balances will be out of the window.

The Republican lawmakers may need to chart their own course to keep their seats and the balance of power which was so cherished by America's forefathers.