Prime Minister Theresa May

Democracy in Motion

  
Photo courtesy www.flickr.com

The process of selecting a new Conservative Leader in United Kingdom suddenly compacted from weeks to days after Theresa May's opponent Andrea Leadsom withdrew her candidacy earlier today. Theresa May is now expected to take over as Prime Minister on Wednesday of this week.

David Cameron's resignation, short listing of two candidates by Conservative MPs and then withdrawal of one candidate who felt she had no chance of winning is keeping with democratic traditions and a lesson for many other countries which maintain a democratic facade, but never follow democratic traditions. U.K.'s Labor Party leader will now also be under pressure and resign to allow new leadership to emerge.

Theresa May was born in Eastbourne, Sussex, studied at Oxford and worked at Bank of England for a while. She was elected to House of Commons in 1997 and has been the Home Secretary since 2010 overseeing immigration, police and national security.

Ms. May is known to be a no nonsense person with a laser like focus on issues and is known as a tough cookie with a stern personality.

It will be interesting to see how she conducts herself face to face with Angela Merkel and other European leaders who are in no mood to negotiate anything before U.K. exits Europe. She may have to trigger article 50 withdrawal sooner than she would prefer to. She may also have to deal with challenges pertaining to Scotland's expected separation from U.K.

HAS PUTIN CHECKMATED OBAMA IN SYRIA OR IS HE OFFERING A FACE SAVING FOR THE U.S.?

CHARTER OF THE UNITED NATIONS: Article 2
'The Organization and its Members, in pursuit of the Purposes stated in Article 1, shall act in accordance with the following Principles.

1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members. 

4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations'.

U.S., Canada & Europe's interference in Syria runs contrary to the U.N. Charter. Nowhere in the Charter, members are permitted 'regime changes' in other countries.  President Assad's brutal regime is not the business of United States or its allies. It is a problem for the Syrian people.

President Putin's actions by default may offer a way out to the U.S. from the mess it created in Syria. Instead of protesting, it may be better to let him destroy ISIS and and anti Assad rebels, so this unholy civil war comes to an end. Ultimately, it is for the Syrian people not the United States to decide if a regime change is required.

This is not the first time U.S. has violated the U.N. charter. It invaded Iraq illegally, overthrew Qaddafi in Libya under the guise of 'no fly zone' and helped overthrow an elected Government in Egypt.  Some say U.S. did all this on Israel's behest. True or not, the outcome of these actions have been disastrous. The entire Middle East has been destabilized. Iraq is fractured probably beyond repair, Egypt has a draconian dictator who has sent thousands of protesters to the gallows, Libya is run by a bunch of terrorists and Syria is in turmoil.

Over ten years since U.S. started its actions in the Middle East, hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed in Iraq, Syria & Libya, many times more than the tyrants rulers of those countries killed over forty years. Iraq alone caused five million refugees and a third of Syrian population is refugee now.  

U.S. accomplishments to date are:
A fractured Iraq:

Picture courtesy aljazeera.com

A Libya controlled by a bunch of terrorists:

Picture courtesy morrocotomorrow.org

A Syria destroyed causing massive refugee crisis.

picture courtesy vocfm.co.za

A splintered Afghanistan after 12 year occupation & tragedies like the Kunduz Hospital bombing.
picture courtesy denverpost.com

Surely, this is not  the outcome U.S. had in mind before launching these wars. Still it begs the question, why have they learned no lessons and why do they keep making the same mistakes over and over?

France turns left with President Farcois Hollande

For the first time in seventeen years, a socialist candidate has won French Presidential elections. Francois Hollande's final round victory on Sunday, May 6 over Sarkozy has major implications for the Eurozone and Germany. The last socialist candidate to win was M. Francois Mitterrand in 1981, who remained President until 1995. The trend does not bode well for conservatives in the forthcoming French Parliamentary elections either, as socialists lead in the polls.

Sarkozy was the recipient of French anger for his arrogance and economic mismanagement. During the last few days he became so desperate to win that he swung hard right, making the most ridiculous statements against immigrants and the deprived that it drove away middle of the road voters. He is the first French President not to win re-election since 1981. It seems a Conservative wave that swept through Europe during the last 10-15 years may now be at an end.

The economy was the main reason for Sarkozy's defeat. He followed US Republican Party style economic management - no new taxes on the rich, but major cuts in social services. Francois Hollande promises a major policy shift and follows Barrack Obama style of economic management, reflating the economy with more cash infusion than cuts. He also plans to introduce a new tax on individuals making over One Million Euros a year.

Greece has also held elections during the weekend and Greek voters rejected right wing parties who had introduced major cuts to pension and social services. Even in the provincial elections in Northern Germany, socialist party has defeated the Conservatives.

It remains to be seen how Angela Merkel will handle this major change in Europe. She may no longer wield the influence that she did in the Merkel-Sarkozy coalition. Farocis Hollande is not likely to see eye to eye with her on major economic and social issues. The Greeks are already saying, they will reverse some of the earlier cuts. If Germany and Brussels put their foot down and insist on Greece following through on earlier commitments, Greece may well exit the Eurozone leading to a major upheaval and ultimate collapse of Euro as a currency.

Germany has been the biggest beneficiary of adopting Euro as their currency. The weak European economies of PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) have kept the Euro pinned down against the US Dollar, making German products cheaper for exports. Had Germany stayed with the Deutschmark, that currency would probably have gone through the roof, making German exports expensive and non-competitive. So Germany needs to step up to the plate and contribute many times more (than it has done so far) to the European Bank, so credit is available to Eurozone countries in economic difficulties.

A short term victim of all this change may be the Canada European Free Trade Accord. There is no reason to suggest that it will not happen, but for now, it may be relegated to the back burner while France, Germany and other European countries deal with their new realities.

It is an irony that before becoming President, Mr. Sarkozy called the ghetto developers of Paris scum. During his five year Presidency, he did absolutely nothing to uplift the poor or assimilate them in the mainstream society. As fate would have it, it is Mr. Sarkozy who is now relegated to the political heap.

 

US Debt Ceiling - Just to Defeat Obama in 2012, will the Republicans sink the US Economy?

The Republican Congressmen and Senators are playing an extremely dangerous game with their nation's finances. In their desire to defeat Barack Obama in 2012, they are pushing the issue of National Debt Ceiling to the brink.

If Congress does not approve an increase in country's debt ceiling by August 2,2011, United States Government will default on its debt obligations at the rate of $4 billion a day. The will result in lowering of US credit rating from AAA and no one will be willing to lend money to US Government unless there is a substantial increase in interest rates.

The interest rate hike will hit the already weak economy hard, pushing unemployment to double digits, the housing market will suffer a down turn like it has never been seen before. Already some 29 million homes are under water i.e. their mortgages are higher than market values, increase in mortgage defaults will bankrupt many US banks and unlike 2008, Uncle Sam will not be able to save them this time as Uncle Sam will itself be bankrupt.

Are the Republicans really this desperate to defeat Obama that they will sink the entire US ship? Many think they are playing brinkmanship and will come good at the last minute to avoid default. I hope they are right, because otherwise they have to be extremely despondent to do this to their own country.

The US default will also impact the World economy. The already suffering European economies of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and others will sink even further, resulting in a possible breakup of EU or the Euro as a single EU currency.

And why are Republicans not willing to increase the debt ceiling even once in Obama's three years, when they raised it no less than seven times in Bush's eight years? Apparently they want more tax cuts for the wealthy and oppose closing tax loopholes for big Corporations. They want to eliminate Medicare and cut Social Security for the poor. The American public knows well that the high debt is a Republican legacy from George Bush's ill planned wars and tax cuts cuts for the rich.

If a default occurs, Obama will probably take the high road and heap entire blame on Republicans and rather than winning the White House in 2012, Republicans could end up losing majority in the House and many Senate seats too.

In case of default, US voters have only themselves to blame for giving Republicans and Tea Party candidates a majority in the The House in 2010 despite George Bush's disastrous eight year Presidency.

Egyptian Protests Continue

AlJazeera English reports that Labor Unions have now joined the ranks of protestors in Egypt. Things appear to be spinning out of control. Time is of essence and if Egypt is to experience a relatively peaceful transition to democracy and multi-party rule, it is time for Obama Administration and European countries to impress upon Hosni Mubarak to step down.

AFGHANISTAN VOTE RECOUNT IS A COMPLETE FARCE AND A FRAUD

The Afghan Presidential elections were rigged in many ways, however the vote recount is even bigger farce. It seems that EU & US representatives conducting this exercise had a pre-determined goal to bring Hamid Karzai's vote below 50% in order to call a run off election.

The two Afghan individuals involved with recount effort resigned in disgust a few days ago, when they discovered the real mandate of EU representatives. It is amazing how Mr. Karzai's vote has been brought down to 49.6% (just below 50%) to order a recount. First the elections were a farce and now the recount is an even bigger farce.

If the intention is to establish democracy and rule of law in Afghanistan, then this is a total violation of all democratic norms. The Afghan populace has no interest whatsoever in these goings on as they don't see their life changing either under Karzai or Abdullah. After all these two gentlemen have been center stage for last eight years and are responsible for the failure of Afghan civil and military administration. Efforts are now afoot by EU & US to get Karzai to form a coalition with Abdullah, a sure recipe for disaster.

In the last elections, less than 30% Afghan electorate voted and when fraudulent votes are counted out, the count is probably less than 25%. In a run off election less than 20% are likely to vote. If President Obama and Hillary Clinton are betting on this democratic move, then it is doomed to failure.

What is needed is to rescind the fraudulent elections, disqualify Karzai and Abdullah for they represent drug and crime syndicates, form a Government of national unity of all Afghan ethnic groups for a period of one year and then have fresh elections. That would allow for healing to take place in fractious Afghan society and also for new leadership to emerge. The people of Afghanistan need to be inclusive in this process, they are then likely be more involved in the democratic process.

A foreign imposed formula is only likely to bring more chaos, more ethnic rivalry and destabilization of the region resulting in foreign troops having to stay longer than they need to. Do the US public have the stomach for US forces to stay there another five years and can the US Military sustain continued war, I think not.

ONLY IN AMERICA

With Barack Obama's election as President, United States of America has once again taken a great leap forward and regenerated itself as a nation that changes with time and adapts to new conditions. A nation despite all its faults and checkered history is ready to stand up and correct itself again- a sign of a great nation.

Another great moment in history was when Abraham Lincoln was elected President in 1860. Despite all opposition, he abolished slavery through Emancipation Proclamation and the 13th constitutional amendment. This caused the pro slavery South to rebel, forming the 'Confederate States of America' which led to a bloody civil war. Ultimately, Lincoln and the American people succeeded and that was a historic time when America regenerated itself.

November 4, 2008 was another historic day. Who could have imagined a mere sixty years ago that America where African Americans were not allowed to share the same bench, the same seat on a bus or a drink from the same fountain with their white country men and women, would elect an African American as their President.

Only in America is it possible for any citizen to rise to such heights. Europe steeped in its history of class system and Asia with its dynastic history can only marvel and admire America for its leap forward. No wonder the whole world celebrates Barack Obama's victory, which in fact is America's victory. This is possible ONLY IN AMERICA.