A Military Coup in Egypt is a recipe for disaster, it could lead to an all out Civil War.

Photo courtesy CNN

The uprising just over a year ago at Tahrir Square, Cairo was against a military dictatorship. A military coup in Egypt now, could have disastrous consequences for this country of 85 million people, possibly damaging it irreparably.

Egyptian Military is one of the most incompetent, ill trained, corrupt and  disorganized militaries of the world. Their Generals have fattened on power and graft, they are incapable of running the military, let alone run the country.

The uprising then was against the corrupt and hated regime of Hosni Mubarak, a military dictator who ruled for 25 years with an iron grip. The general public rose against the choke hold and wanted to see a democratic set up in the country. But due to manipulation of Egyptian military, (backed by U.S.) underhand deals were made with Muslim Brotherhood in the hope of restricting them to parliament only. The plan was to have a pliable candidate elected as President, so all good and independent minded Presidential candidates were barred from contesting elections.

Like most unholy deals, this too came undone. Contrary to earlier promises, Brotherhood insisted on fielding a candidate for President and withtheir extensive network, they were able to capture enough votes to control the parliament and then the Presidency. This was not the result people had demonstrated for, in fact this was a negation of their hopes and aspirations. Had the military not cut a deal, Brotherhood would probably not have won more than a handful of seats in the parliament.

The anger on the streets of Egypt today against Morsi regime is because he does not represent the the majority. Most Egyprians want a secular, democratic Egypt with freedom for all and not the theocratic state Muslim Brotherhood wants.

A military coup is neither appropriate nor an option at this stage. Brotherhood came to power through elections and they should be allowed to serve out their term. Next elections should be held without military intervention and should be free and fair. If that were to happen, chances are, Brotherhood will be voted out of office. Democratic means should be the only method for a change.

If Morsi survives, he should realize that he has come to power due to military's manipulation and he does not represent the majority. He should take the views of the majority into consideration.

A military coup now is likely to pit the Brotherhood against the military. The general public may feel relieved momentarily, but they too are in no mood for military rule again. In a worse case scenario, Brotherhood could take up arms Taliban style and inflict heavy blows on the military causing great upheaval leading to an all out civil war.

The Egypt Military and its sponsor (the U.S., the great champion of democracy) should think again before taking any steps to overthrow an elected regime, no matter how unpopular.

Can Ron Paul upset the Republican Applecart in Iowa?

The Congressman from Texas, whom no one took seriously is now leading Iowa opinion polls. CBS' Political HotSheet puts him at 27.5%, Newt Gingrich at 25.3% and Mitt Romney at 17.5%. Ron Paul is not the first to lead Iowa polls. Most Republican candidates have occupied that spot briefly over the last few weeks. The lead could change again between now and January 3, the polling date, but with polls just seven days away, Ron Paul seems to have a good chance of victory in Iowa.

He is a typical anti-establishment candidate. He takes positions diametrically opposite to his fellow Conservatives. He is opposed to American wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya and is deadly opposed to starting a war with Iran. He also opposes US support to Israel and wants to stop all foreign aid including billions of dollars given to Israel each year.

His positions strongly resonate with economically hard hit Americans. His statement "We take money from American poor and give it to the Rich in poor countries", is so true and sits well with American poor, whose number has ballooned over the last twenty years. It is a fact that a great deal of US aid has gone to prop up regimes of despotic dictators like Hosni Mubarak and others, who then stash the money in Swiss bank accounts. The common folks in those countries never receive a dime's benefit, no wonder there is an anti-American feeling in those countries

Ron Paul also attracts American voters who are tired of extended wars in Iraq & Afghanistan without any benefit to average Americans. They identify with Mr. Paul's message of "no more wars".

His popularity can decline in a few days and the attack dogs of pro-Israel media & lobbies are trying their best to run Ron Paul down, but he seems to be holding steady and has a possibility of winning Iowa caucuses. If he does win, it will be a blow to Republican establishment as he will go to other States in strength and with a dedicated machinery of supporters and organizers. He can weaken Romney & Gingrich nationally by taking votes away from them.

The possibility of Ron Paul winning Republican nomination is low, but if he does well in a several states, he may run as an independent Presidential candidate. That would split Republican vote, ensuring their nominee's defeat at the hands of President Obama.

Has Gaddafi Gone Mad?

A defiant Muammar Gaddafi is threatening bloodshed and revenge against protesters, he sounds like a mad man. It seems that even after ruling Libya for 41 years, his desire for power is not satiated. He is willing to destroy Libya rather than accept reality and step down.

The day Hosni Mubarak was ousted, Gaddafi should have initiated an orderly transition to democratic rule. Gaddafi's defiance can only cause more death and destruction resulting possibly in the breakup of Libya. Even if he overcomes the situation momentarily, his game is up and chances of him lasting as a ruler are minimal.

US wielded a great deal of influence with Egyptian military, hence were able to ensure Mubarak's departure, but there is no such connection here. Gaddafi is his own man and does not listen to anyone, so unfortunately there is no one to influence him to make the right decision at this critical juncture.

Let us hope better sense will prevail in the end and Gaddafi will decide to hand power to a new civilian administration.

SHOULD HILLARY CLINTON RESIGN?

On January 26, 2011 Hillary Clinton called Hosni Mubarak regime a stable regime.

This what she said as per 'Democracy Now' blog
"Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: "We support the fundamental right of expression and assembly for all people, and we urge that all parties exercise restraint and refrain from violence. But our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable and is looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people."

And yet a few days later, the Egyptian public threw out the corrupt and dictatorial regime of Hosni Mubarak. How could America's Chief Diplomat get this so wrong?

This was a huge blunder on the part of Hillary Clinton, a person in-charge of conducting US foreign policy. If she can get things so wrong, how will she read the situation in a major face off with a nuclear power?

The decent thing for Hillary Clinton to do is to resign and relieve Obama Administration of her continued presence at State Department. If she does not, President Obama should ask for her resignation.

Is Mubarak on the Run?

BBC and other news sources are reporting that Hosni Mubarak may step down today and hand over power to his Vice President Suleiman.

Suleiman is the former head of the dreaded Egyptian Intelligence. He has helped Mubarak suppress Egyptian people for thirty years. His demeanor on television may be that of a softy, but he is a cruel man who has jailed thousands of people over the years.

If Mubarak does step down and hands over power to Suleiman, it will be like one thug handing over the reigns to another.

No doubt the Egyptians will celebrate their victory over Mubarak's ouster, but they are not likely to accept a transition Government under Suleiman. Chances are protests will continue until they get rid of Suleiman.

Aljazeera English TV claims that Omar Suleiman is an Israeli agent. One does not know if that is true, but Israel and the US have been very keen to have him replace Mubarak. The recent high praise for him by an Israeli Government minister may rile up the Egyptians even more to ensure his rapid departure.

Protests Spreading in Egypt, Democracy Now reports

Egyptian Protests Continue

AlJazeera English reports that Labor Unions have now joined the ranks of protestors in Egypt. Things appear to be spinning out of control. Time is of essence and if Egypt is to experience a relatively peaceful transition to democracy and multi-party rule, it is time for Obama Administration and European countries to impress upon Hosni Mubarak to step down.

Corruption in Egypt - AlJazeera video

Alexandria, Egypt Prtoests

CAIRO IN TURMOIL

MUBARAK'S STAY WILL ONLY PUSH EGYPT INTO BROTHERHOOD'S LAP

The Egyptian demonstrations have been led by common folks wanting a corrupt and a dictatorial leader out of power and out of their country. The Muslim Brotherhood is a late comer to the game. In fact the first few days of uprising they stood on the sidelines probably fearing that crowds could turn on them. Watching things heat up, they have gradually come into the fold. By now it is a well known fact that the uprising has nothing to do with the Brotherhood, but, if there is no quick resolution and uncertainty continues, they stand to reap rewards far greater than they deserve.

The Obama Administration's backtracking on Hosni Mubarak's departure may have inflicted a minor blow to the uprising. But Hosni Mubarak's plan to stay till September and oversee election of his cronies will not be palatable to the Egyptian public. They have had enough of him in thirty years and they want to see the back of him sooner rather than later. The self appointed pundits like Farid Zakaria saying that army will outlast the crowds will probably be proven wrong, as usual.

Egyptian economy has already suffered $3 billion damage and the longer Mubarak remains as Head of State (with or without full powers), the demonstrations will continue and the losses will multiply. Hosni Mubarak has no credibility to bring a meaningful change to Egyptian constitution or arrange an orderly transition. At this time, he is a catalyst for more violence and upheaval. He should leave Egypt NOW before he suffers a Mussolini like fate.

The immediate need is to pacify Egyptian public by replacing Mubarak with an interim non-political Authority with a mandate to come up with a constitutional reform package and oversee a fair and transparent election. The interim authority should ideally be headed by a superior court judge and not by the Vice President or the Speaker (both Mubarak's party men). Once Mubarak is out and the Authority is in place, the public will most likely go back to their daily lives.

Only then can the new political parties be formed and electioneering begin in earnest. If this path is followed, chances are Egyptian public will reject the Brotherhood, who will be lucky to get 2 to 3% of the vote. However, a prolonged agitation will only strengthen their hands and they would gain significantly by playing on people's fears.

It is time for President Obama and Hillary Clinton to act as visionary leaders, with behind the scenes diplomacy and not many public statements. Also, they should not pay attention to those advisors who are for Mubarak's stay or continued involvement till September. Lest the Iranain revolution repeats itself in Egypt.

WITH EGYPT IN TURMOIL, TIME MAY BE RUNNING OUT FOR ISRAEL TO MAKE PEACE WITH PALESTINIANS

With Hosni Mubarak's impending departure, whatever form a new Egyptian Government takes, one thing is certain, the new Government is less likely to be friendly to Israel.

Tom Friedman is absolutely right when he says that it is time for Israel to make peace with Palestinians and that too in some haste. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his ultra right wing cabinet has dragged its feet to delay a meaningful peace dialogue, but time may be running out for Israel to come to a permanent settlement with Palestinians.

If the present political turmoil continues in the Middle East, Israel may find itself surrounded by countries with new and more hostile Governments who are likely to be much more sympathetic to Hezbollah, Hamas and the Palestinians.

The current Palestinian leadership headed by Mahmoud Abbas, though not fully representative of all Palestinians, still offers Israel a real chance of a permanent and lasting peace. Israel has to be prepared to show flexibility on West Bank and Jerusalem and Palestinians must be flexible on the right of return of refugees.

President Obama should take the initiative and emphasize upon the Israeli Government that time for peace is now and if they miss this opportunity, they could inflict a heavy price on generations of Israelis and Palestinians.

Israel must also immediately release Palestinian political prisoners held in their jails for years. One such leader is Marwan Barghouti. He is potentially the President of an independent Palestinian state. He has the support of all Palestinians and is also well respected by Fatah and Hamas. He is a revolutionary of the modern kind, he wants education for all Palestinians and a peaceful co-existence with Israel.

It is time for Israel to act and act now.

HOSNI MUBARAK SHOULD STEP DOWN IMMDEIATELY

No amount of promises will satisfy the Egyptian people, Hosni Mubarak should step down now. Perhaps it is too late already for an orderly transition, but the longer he lingers, the more violent is the transition likely to be.

Mubarak has ruled Egypt with an iron fist for thirty years, no wonder the anger is boiling over in the streets. He has not allowed any opposition candidate to run against him, most opponents have been languishing in jail for years. A vast number of Egyptians remain poor and have not benefited from economic prosperity that a few have enjoyed. Mubarak and his cronies live extravagant lifestyle in palaces like kings.

Mubarak's grooming of his son as his successor may be the proverbial "last straw that broke the camel's back". People have had enough of one Mubarak and they are not ready for another. Also, Egypt is not a kingdom, where a son can take over reigns of power when the father dies or retires. Tunisian uprising may have lit a fire in the Middle East, but anger has been boiling in Egypt for quite some time now, all it needed was a fuse.

To prevent conditions getting worse, Hosni Mubarak should hand over power to an interim non-partisan authority, whose sole task should be to hold free and fair elections within 90 days. This can prevent further violence as angers will cool down and the public will feel empowered to elect a leader of their choice. Failure to step down will only result in more violence, death and destruction and a severe blow to Egyptian economy. MR. MUBARAK, PLEASE GO NOW AND SAVE YOUR COUNTRY.