The Congressman from Texas, whom no one took seriously is now leading Iowa opinion polls. CBS' Political HotSheet puts him at 27.5%, Newt Gingrich at 25.3% and Mitt Romney at 17.5%. Ron Paul is not the first to lead Iowa polls. Most Republican candidates have occupied that spot briefly over the last few weeks. The lead could change again between now and January 3, the polling date, but with polls just seven days away, Ron Paul seems to have a good chance of victory in Iowa.
He is a typical anti-establishment candidate. He takes positions diametrically opposite to his fellow Conservatives. He is opposed to American wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya and is deadly opposed to starting a war with Iran. He also opposes US support to Israel and wants to stop all foreign aid including billions of dollars given to Israel each year.
His positions strongly resonate with economically hard hit Americans. His statement "We take money from American poor and give it to the Rich in poor countries", is so true and sits well with American poor, whose number has ballooned over the last twenty years. It is a fact that a great deal of US aid has gone to prop up regimes of despotic dictators like Hosni Mubarak and others, who then stash the money in Swiss bank accounts. The common folks in those countries never receive a dime's benefit, no wonder there is an anti-American feeling in those countries
Ron Paul also attracts American voters who are tired of extended wars in Iraq & Afghanistan without any benefit to average Americans. They identify with Mr. Paul's message of "no more wars".
His popularity can decline in a few days and the attack dogs of pro-Israel media & lobbies are trying their best to run Ron Paul down, but he seems to be holding steady and has a possibility of winning Iowa caucuses. If he does win, it will be a blow to Republican establishment as he will go to other States in strength and with a dedicated machinery of supporters and organizers. He can weaken Romney & Gingrich nationally by taking votes away from them.
The possibility of Ron Paul winning Republican nomination is low, but if he does well in a several states, he may run as an independent Presidential candidate. That would split Republican vote, ensuring their nominee's defeat at the hands of President Obama.