JOE BIDEN'S LEGACY

                Photo: Reuters

Joe Biden pardons his son Hunter Biden despite his alleged criminal activities. It is alleged that Hunter often traveled with his father on Air Force One on foreign trips to make deals, which creates suspicion that Joe Biden himself may have been involved in some of these deals. The pardon raises suspicion that it doesn't smell right.

Joe Biden's legacy is in tatters not just because of the pardon, but because of his conduct in the Ukraine war. He never even once made efforts to end the war, in fact, he inflamed the war resulting in massive loss of human life and injuries.

'The Economist magazine estimates 60,000 to 100,000 Ukrainians (not sure if just soldiers or civilian casualties included)  have lost their lives and nearly 400,000 have suffered injuries.

President Biden and his hawkish Democrats and the Establishment have sunk almost $175 billion of American taxpayers' money into this conflict when so many Americans could not pay their mortgages or have two square meals a day. This war is nothing but a bonanza for the defense industry, which appears to drive the U.S. Government.

The Gaza war and its disastrous consequences of loss of human life (mostly women and Children) and destruction of property is another failure of the Biden Administration. In fact, Biden is complicit and as criminally involved in the Gaza war as the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Biden kept shipping lethal bombs to Israel throughout the conflict, which Israel used to drop on innocent Palestinians. The promise of a ceasefire was nothing but a hoax as no serious effort was made to achieve a ceasefire and you don't get a ceasefire when you keep shipping bombs to one side.

The U.S. economy has been at its worst during Biden's 4 years, high inflation, highest interest rates in over 40 years, mortgage defaults, high food costs etc. have made the lives of many million Americans miserable during his Presidency.

Biden's refusal to step down as a Presidential candidate in 2024 despite suspicions that his mental faculties may not all be intact has inflicted a massive blow to the Democratic party. His late withdrawal meant, no credible candidate could step forward in his place as the remaining time to the election was too short to run a successful campaign. Kamala Harris was a choice by default and was a poor candidate. Initially, she made some impact and even raised a lot of money but her lack of experience and clarity on issues was exposed each passing day resulting in Donald Trump's substantial victory and also the Republicans winning the Senate and House majorities.

In reality, Joe Biden has gifted all this to Trump. Had he stepped down six months earlier, some credible Democratic candidates could have stepped forward and the end result may have been different.

 WHO WILL WIN THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

(Courtesy AP Photo)

With the Democratic National Convention over, the euphoria caused by Biden withdrawal and Harris' candidacy should soon be over. The tough questions start now. We all know who Donald Trump is and we also know his idiosyncracies, but we don't know much about Kamala Harris, she is an unklnown quantity. As Biden's VP she was virtually non-existent. She will need to move away from Biden legacy and establish her own narrative to succeed. Tough questions will be asked in media interviews and press conferences where she will be tested. However, she has done well since she replaced Joe Biden. The real test for both candidates comes in the next 73 days to November 5.

As Hillary Clinton discovered shockingly, it is not the popular vote that counts, it is the number of electoral college votes that count. There are 538 electoral college votes and the winner needs to secure 270 votes to win. If no candidate gets 270 delegates, the House of Representatives will elect a President and the Senate will elect a Vice President. Several States are already in the decided column. It is the swing states that will decide the election. The current delegate count of decided and toss up States is as follows:

                 Donald Trump                       219

                 Kamala Harris                       208

        

                 Toss Up                                 111   

                 TOTAL                                  538

So it is the Toss Up States that will decide the final outcome. Of the seven key toss-up states, Trump currently leads in five and Harris in two. This could change between now and the election date.

According to 'Real Clear Politics' Trump is likely to win 287 electoral college votes and Harris 251 votes. However, it is too soon to call as swing states tend to move back and forth. To win, the candidates have to demonstrate that they have effective economic, immigration and, financial policies. So there is a long way to go yet.

President Hillary Clinton

(Image courtesy www.bgr.in)

Failing any untoward incident or information coming to light over the next three weeks, Hillary Clinton should win the election on November 8 and be sworn in as President of the United States on January 20, 2017.

The damage Donald Trump has caused to the Republican Party, could result in Republicans losing several seats in the Senate and the House and possibly majorities in one or both houses.

To win the Presidential election a candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral college votes. It now seems that Hillary Clinton could win over 300 votes. The electoral college map below (courtesy Politico.com)  shows the current position. Only seven states are considered toss up. Of these Clinton is leading in Virginia and North Carolina. Arizona, Colorado and Florida are also beginning to sway towards Clinton.

Wikileaks is promising to dump more damaging information about Hillary Clinton, but whatever they have come up with so far has had no impact.  Worse still are Donald Trump's own words that cause him more damage each day.

Fiscal Cliff - Republican Party stops short of shooting itself in the foot.

President Obama wins showdown (photo courtesy The Daily Beast)

As the U.S. public (and world financial markets) watched in dismay, the Republican Party, held the whole country hostage till the very end, just to protect the top 2% earners in their country. The American voters must wonder, why they voted for such self serving politicians who only care about the lobbies that fill their election coffers.

In a deal struck earlier, between Vice President Joe Biden and Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell, Senate passed a bill with an overwhelming majority of 89-8 raising taxes an those earning over $400,000 ($450,000 for families), at the same time making tax cuts permanent for those under this threshold. The bill was passed around 2AM on January, 1.

The House of Representatives then took up the bill yesterday and after much shenanigans and dramatics keeping the country and world financial markets on the fiscal edge, passed the bill late in the evening with 1/3rd Republicans voting with the Democrats.

Thus one segment of fiscal cliff was averted. But it begs the question, why was this not done a month ago and why play these foolish games to the end? Republican Party's reputation has been much tarnished by these antics.

The main components of fiscal cliff i. e. spending cuts and debt ceiling still hang in the balance as deadline for those has been extended by two months. The sensible thing to do now, is for Republicans and Democrats to sit down with White House officials and come to an agreement on these issues during next couple of weeks and certainly well before the deadline so as to send a positive message to financial markets that common sense finally prevailed.

This is win for President Obama, who had committed in election campaign to raise taxes on the wealthy. Vice President Joe Biden has especially come out of  this smelling like roses. With his negotiating skills, he not only got Senate Republicans to support the bill, but he also pacified renegade members of his own party.
 

Can Ron Paul upset the Republican Applecart in Iowa?

The Congressman from Texas, whom no one took seriously is now leading Iowa opinion polls. CBS' Political HotSheet puts him at 27.5%, Newt Gingrich at 25.3% and Mitt Romney at 17.5%. Ron Paul is not the first to lead Iowa polls. Most Republican candidates have occupied that spot briefly over the last few weeks. The lead could change again between now and January 3, the polling date, but with polls just seven days away, Ron Paul seems to have a good chance of victory in Iowa.

He is a typical anti-establishment candidate. He takes positions diametrically opposite to his fellow Conservatives. He is opposed to American wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya and is deadly opposed to starting a war with Iran. He also opposes US support to Israel and wants to stop all foreign aid including billions of dollars given to Israel each year.

His positions strongly resonate with economically hard hit Americans. His statement "We take money from American poor and give it to the Rich in poor countries", is so true and sits well with American poor, whose number has ballooned over the last twenty years. It is a fact that a great deal of US aid has gone to prop up regimes of despotic dictators like Hosni Mubarak and others, who then stash the money in Swiss bank accounts. The common folks in those countries never receive a dime's benefit, no wonder there is an anti-American feeling in those countries

Ron Paul also attracts American voters who are tired of extended wars in Iraq & Afghanistan without any benefit to average Americans. They identify with Mr. Paul's message of "no more wars".

His popularity can decline in a few days and the attack dogs of pro-Israel media & lobbies are trying their best to run Ron Paul down, but he seems to be holding steady and has a possibility of winning Iowa caucuses. If he does win, it will be a blow to Republican establishment as he will go to other States in strength and with a dedicated machinery of supporters and organizers. He can weaken Romney & Gingrich nationally by taking votes away from them.

The possibility of Ron Paul winning Republican nomination is low, but if he does well in a several states, he may run as an independent Presidential candidate. That would split Republican vote, ensuring their nominee's defeat at the hands of President Obama.

Will the U.S. economic downdrift bring Canadian economy down?

United States is politically deadlocked. No matter what President Obama proposes to the joint session of Congress on Thursday, most Republicans are not likely to back him.

The Tea Party segment of Republicans in the House (a significant number) is working on one item agenda only - get rid of Obama. The have made their disdain known openly for an African American President, calling him Hitler, anti American, the Other Guy and several such unfortunate names. They are hell bent on this, even if it destroys the U.S. economy, which was quite obvious during the recent debt negotiations.

This gridlock is damaging U.S. economic recovery. A large number of jobs that should have been created after the 2008/9 recession ended, have not been created. The unemployment picture is depressing as 14 million employable workers are not employed. Unemployment amongst teenagers runs at 25.4%, African Americans 16.7%, Hispanics 11.3% and whites at 8%. Many economists agree that current unemployment rate of 9.1% will come down to around 8.9% by end of year and to a low 8% in 2012, but that still leaves many million unemployed.

U.S. is Canada's largest trading partner and any serious impact on U.S.economy or buying power of its citizens will eventually filter through to the Canadian economy. While Canada's economy is still going through a slow recovery, it has been spared from a substantial impact, primarily because Canada's financial system proved to be the best in the world at a time a major financial crisis. But, if the U.S. economy continues a down drift, Canadian economy could stagnate.

It is important to insulate Canadian economy from such an eventuality. Alternative markets have to be found for its products in order to diversify exports and reduce dependence on U.S. Fortunately, Canada is a resource rich country and developing economies are in need of resources. Rising exports to China have helped offset some of the impact of declining U.S. orders.

The Canadian softwood lumber industry, which has been in a running battle with the U.S. Government and some of their intransigent politicians for years, has taken a leap forward by going to China, building houses and showing Chinese construction companies how they can build houses faster and cheaper by using lumber instead of concrete. This has resulted in creating demand for Canadian lumber in China, so much so that Canada is now exporting almost as much (if not more)lumber to China than the U.S. Other Canadian industries need to learn from this experience and explore markets around the world. The oil industry also needs to diversify its exports. An oil pipeline from Alberta to an off shore oil terminal on the Pacific Coast would make it considerably easier to export oil to China and other countries.

One good thing that has happened in this financial crisis is that Harper Government has grown up. From a reluctant, lukewarm attitude towards China in earlier years, now a more confident majority Harper Government has made progress. After a highly visible and successful visit by John Baird, Canadian Foreign Minister, Prime Minister will soon be off to China to increase trade opportunities. His recent visit to Brazil and other South American countries will also have positive impact on Canadian companies wanting to venture into those markets.

One market that Canada has not made major inroads into is India. This enormous market is very different than any other. India is not yet ready for large quantities of softwood lumber, not probably for another 10 years. Its infrastructure is abysmal and Canada could help plan and build roads on a fast track basis all over India. India is also in need of building small houses to replace slums and shanties. Canadian companies specializing in pre-fab construction could possibly set up factories in India to produce these in large quantities, so the Government and private sector, start replacing shanties on an emergency footing. There are probably countless other opportunities, for which the Indian market needs to be studied thoroughly and patiently, rewards will follow.

Canadian economy need not go down with the U.S. economy as long as it finds alternative markets and Canadian Corporations open their horizons to exploring new markets. The structure of Canadian Corporate Board also needs to be diversified to leverage enormous international talent available within Canada. The U.S. economy will ultimately recover and that could only give the Canadian economy a further boost.

Tea Party's Shenanigans hit America's 401k hard

It was quite obvious to many in America and around the world (as elaborated by this blog earlier) that Tea Party's intransigence in Debt Dialogue would eventually hit the markets hard and that is exactly what has happened. Even the senior members of Republican Party, who knew better or should known better, also demonstrated a complete disdain for a reasonableness accommodation.

The unfortunate message from Washington DC is that America is ungovernable. This is a very un-comforting thought. It has caused a downgrade of US credit rating and a decline in stock markets.

Retirees and those near retirement, have built their nest eggs with hard earned savings over their lifespans. They had barely recovered from the 2008 crash that they once again face a major decline in values of their investments. This time, the market decline was entirely avoidable. Had Washington entered into a responsible debt deal a few months ago, the message to markets would have been positive. But Tea Party's one point agenda - defeat Barack Obama in 2012 no matter what the cost, became a stumbling block to arriving at a timely settlement.

The 600+ point drop in Dow Jones on August 8 is most unfortunate. As in the past, the markets will ride out this storm too, but for many retirees, their 401K is a worth a great deal less today, than it was a few months ago.

Hopefully, the American electorate will remember all this in 2012 elections and send all those Congressmen and Senators packing, who put their warped ideology ahead of their nation's interests.

U.S. public deserves what is coming their way.

Maria Cardona's article 'Tyranny of 87' on CNN blog sums it well that 87 tea party congress members are holding the country, its financial system and the world's economy hostage.

It may be unkind to say it, but U.S. public deserves what is coming their way. After all, they elected this zealot group of 87 tea party activists who have no clue of the harm they are about to inflict on the nation. They say that to avoid default, just pay the interest on debt and stop all social security and medicare checks. This will leave millions of Americans in despair, but that does not bother them as long as there are no tax increase on the rich and loopholes remain open for big corporations to avoid taxes.

What the U.S. needs at this time is to carefully nurture its economy back to health, even if it requires more stimulus or Quantitative Easing 3. But the actions of Republicans, especially the group of 87 could cause a recession all over again with more job losses adding to the already high 9% unemployment.

Handing veto power to a group of unknown idealists of the opposing party, only two years after electing a new President was a huge mistake.

US: Tea Party is to blame for the impending default

The intransigence of Republican Party, especially their Tea Party component to raise debt ceiling is sending Canadian Dollar, Gold and Swiss Franc soaring. The markets consider these safe havens in case of a US default. If a default occurs August 2, 2011 onwards, the Tea Party will be to blame for creating havoc with US and World financial systems.

The debt ceiling was raised 17 times under Reagan, 4 times under Bush Sr. 4 times under Clinton and 7 times under Bush Jr. The Republican Party has only now developed consciousness or is it that their game play has gone too far?

The Tea Party's ideology is warped. In a country where every dollar spent, only 62 cents are raised in revenue and the rest is borrowed, Tea Partiers refuse to increase revenue sources. Granted that US spending is out of control and needs to be reigned in, but most of the extra spending in last ten years has been on expensive wars.

The Republican lawmakers who rave and rant against Government spending are themselves guilty of appropriating funds by way of entitlements for their pet projects, whether these are productive or not - like the bridge to nowhere in Alaska. They tag entitlements to any bill that passes Congress.

Although this fight between Tea Party and President Obama seems mostly ideological, but there may be some undercurrents of racism here. In 2010 elections, some Tea Party zealots suggested that African Americans should not vote as they don't understand democracy. It seems that Tea Party has a one point agenda - remove Barack Obama from office, no matter what the cost to country's economy.

To prevent default, if moderate Republicans do come to a last minute agreement with President Obama, Tea Party may try to stall the bill in Congress. If they cannot, they will probably field their own Presidential candidate in 2012. This could rip the Republican Party as their votes will split against Obama.

Is the Republican Party about to commit Harakiri? One hopes not.

After voting to raise US Debt Ceiling a record seven times in George W. Bush's eight years presidency, the Republican Party is now dragging its feet to raise it once unless they get their way - further reduction in taxes for the rich and drastic cut in social services for the poor i.e. medicare, social security etc. While Bush reduced taxes of his own accord, Republican Party never insisted on cuts to social services during his presidency.

By not increasing the debt ceiling, Republicans are holding US and world economy hostage as without the increase, US Government will most certainly start to default on its obligations from August 2, 2011 onwards. The debt ceiling should have been raised in May 2011, but Republicans have been playing hard ball, but now it is time for Republicans to deliver.

After pulling out of talks with President Obama Friday, the Speaker of the House probably realizes his folly and is now desperately trying to come up with a solution before the Asian markets open Monday. Though he has left it rather late, but one hopes that his efforts will bear fruit.

The Wall Street is extremely worried that if debt ceiling is not raised, default by US Government is imminent. If that happens, all hell may break lose in the financial markets. It is time for Wall Street and big Corporations (the main financiers of Republican party) to impress upon them that unless a deal is done within hours, all further funding to Republican party will cease.

Most Americans know what is going on and a majority of them are with President Obama on this. Perhaps the President should set a final deadline of 12 Noon (EST) Sunday and if no agreement is in place, he should go directly to the American public and take them into confidence. They should know who is playing havoc with their future.

REPUBLICAN PARTY, HEALTH CARE, MASSIVE SPENDING AND THE PUBLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEM

The Republicans made a calculation at the outset of Health Care Bill that if it can defeat the Bill, it can break and defeat Barack Obama. So, instead of actively participating in debate and helping improve the Bill, they adopted scare mongering and negative tactics. However, their calculation backfired and like Hillary Clinton did during the primary campaign, they too under estimated Barack Obama.

Their alliance with the Tea Party movement, which at best can be described a right wing fringe, may have damaged the Republican Party, especially their appeal to independent voters who now form a majority in the US. The blame for this does not rest solely on Michael Steele's shoulders, but on the entire Republican Party and especially the Senators and Congress members. The Republican Party may have shot itself in the foot.

How can a major political party take a position; "Health care in America is the best in the world, so leave it alone" when 50 million people i.e. 15% of country's population has no health care coverage. Apart from scaring many independent voters, Republicans surely have lost the 32 million people, who will now be entitled to health care coverage under the new bill.

US spends 17% of its GDP on health care and still leaves out 50 million of its people. In comparison, Canada spends only 11% of its GDP on health care, with every man woman and child covered. So, where is the money going - to insurance companies I guess? With ten times the population, US should be able to achieve economies of scale and spend no more that 8 or 9% on health care. If it could cut down the spending to 10% of GDP, the savings will be a staggering $994 billion a year reducing the budget deficit from $1.4 trillion to $406 billion.

So, is this the status quo the Republican Party wanted to maintain? And what about the Tea Party crowd, who love to talk about cutting down big Government, don't they get it? Where was the Tea Party movement when George W. Bush was launching illegal war on Iraq, giving tax breaks to the high earners and turning surpluses into deficits? Why did they not come out on the streets then and not protest even louder about Government spending?

Even with the new Bill, it is quite obvious that US health care system is far too expensive and needs substantial improvement. President Obama should quietly set up a team to study Canadian, British and Scandinavian public health care systems and have them devise the best public health care system possible.

It is imperative that a Public Health Care system be introduced in the US as soon as possible.