Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Have they won their respective party nominations, almost certainly.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016



Donald Trump was supposed to win all but one State in Tuesday's primaries, but he ended up with only seven, Cruz won three and Rubio won one. For a candidate to be nominated for the Presidential race he needs to win 1237 delegates by the time Republican Party convention comes around in July. So far, the delegate count is as follows:

                                          Trump     315
                                          Cruz        205
                                          Rubio      106

The Republican establishment hates Trump with a passion. They feel he is crazy and high jacking their party. They equally despise Cruz for his obstructionist attitude in the Senate and for shutting down Government funding a couple of years ago. They appear to have coalesced behind Rubio for now and seem to be using him as the attack dog against Trump and with some success too. Rubio's sharp attacks on Trump since last week calling him a con man, may have made some voters think twice about voting for him.

If Trump wins 1237 delegates by the convention, there is nothing the Republican establishment can do as he will then be the Party nominee to challenge Hillary Clinton, who with 1055 delegates out of 2382 required is nearly half way to the nomination.

However, if no candidate wins 1237 delegates, the Republican establishment will then come into play. They could bring an outsider as a compromise candidate and maneuver the freed up delegates to vote for a new candidate. Rubio could then be rewarded as a Vice Presidential candidate. He is too inexperienced to be a President, but with him on the ticket, Republicans could garner some of the Hispanic electorate, which they normally don't do well with.

There is some speculation already on who who could be such a candidate? One of these two gentlemen would most probably be ready to step in:

Mitt Romney

Mayor Bloomberg, former Mayor of New York

However for this to happen, Donald Trump has to fail in several States and not get the 1237 delegates required for the nomination.

Friday, February 26, 2016

Republican Race for Nomination

Rubio & Cruz, can one of these contenders pose a serious challenge to

Trump for Republican nomination?

To win the Republican Party's nomination a candidate has to win 1237 delegates from a total 2472. So far Trump has 81 Rubio & Cruz 17 each. The challenge seems insurmountable.  Trump is also  leading in 10 of 11 states coming up on Super Tuesday, March 1. New York Times says that after super Tuesday Trump could end up with 479 delegates to Cruz & Rubio's 164 each. Though in reality Cruz could have more as he is leading his home state of Texas, which has a rich haul of 155 delegates. The question then remains how do Rubio or Cruz stop Trump running away with the nomination?

The answer lies in the outcome of March 5 primary which includes Rubio's home state of Florida, with 99 delegates, where Trump is currently leading Rubio by ten points. But after last night's mauling of Trump in the debate, the tide could turn in Rubio's favor. If Rubio loses his home state, it is game over for him, but if he wins Florida, then Trump could be in some difficulty as he may not garner majority delegates in California and New York, which are liberal states and not too enamored with his shenanigans.

The way things stand right now, Trump looks likely to get enough delegates from other states to win nomination outright irrespective of the fact that Republican establishment despises him and want to see him lose. However, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that come July 18, 2016 the start date of Republican convention in Cleveland that no single candidate has 1237 delegates. There  will be horse trading and maneuvering to win or steal delegates. But if still no candidate has a majority, all delegates will be set free and will be free to vote for any candidate of their choosing. In such a scenario Republican establishment could prevail and maneuver Rubio's nomination. So if Trump wants the nomination, he has to win outright majority of delegates.

In the attached article New York Times presents a scenario where Rubio could lose every state and still win the nomination:

The pity of it all is that the most likable candidate, John Kasich, Governor of the crucial state of Ohio and the candidate likely to present a challenge to Hillary Clinton is too far behind with only six delegates. He may be a formidable candidate for Vice President though. In recent years no candidate has won the Presidential race without winning Ohio and Kasich may be able to deliver that state come November elections.

Monday, October 26, 2015

Just Not Ready? The Defeat of Stephen Harper

Stephen Harper | CanadianFlyboy

'Just Not Ready' is the slogan Stephen Harper used against Justin Trudeau in Canada's election campaign. Though false, the ad seemed to be clever in the beginning, but its frequent repetition  annoyed many Canadian voters as it smacked of arrogance - a trait well entrenched in the soon to be former Prime Minister. Justin Trudeau's very effective response to it also literally demolished any impact the ad may have had made in earlier days. But that was not the main cause of Harper's defeat.

There were a number of factors that contributed to it. Harper ran a secretive Government, where he held all the cards close to his chest. Even members of his own party were not allowed to speak their mind, instead they were instructed to stick to talking points issued by PM office. After the October 19 defeat, several Conservative party members have openly criticized Harper for his handling of elections. Suddenly, it is as if an Iron Curtain has been lifted.

It is understood that early on, Harper instructed the bureaucrats to call the Canadian Government the Harper Government as if it was his personal fiefdom. The Prime Minister's Office (PMO) became the main power centre, where some of the alleged crooked deal for Senator Duffy were cooked and concealed from the public. Nine years earlier, Harper had come in with a promise for a transparent and clean Government, what he delivered was the opposite. He promised to reform the Senate, but despite having a majority, he did nothing. Instead he stuffed the Senate with 56 appointees, many of whom his cronies, who proved to be incompetent and some are currently facing criminal charges.

In recent months, he passed two laws which are out and out draconian. Bill C51 & Bill C24. Canadians like to feel safe, but they do not want their freedoms restricted by Patriot Act like Bill C51. Thankfully Trudeau has promised to change it and remove offending clauses. Bill C24 is another story. This is the single most disastrous legislation brought about by Harper through his Citizenship Minister, Chris Alexander, whereby the Minister anointed himself as the prosecutor, judge, jury and the executioner. Any dual citizen suspected of terrorism can be stripped of Canadian citizenship by the Minister without any hearing or appeal and Minister's decision cannot be challenged in any court of Law. Hopefully Trudeau will make it an early priority to repeal this grotesque law.

Harper's Citizenship Minister, Chris Alexander who introduced the single most disastrous piece of legislation in the form of Bill C24.

Over nine years, Harper's missteps were many. Ignoring China earlier on, and not promoting trade agreements with China & India, missing trade opportunities for Canadian Companies, the unnecessary fight with United Arab Emirates over landing rights, getting involved in a war in Libya, which handed the country over to terrorists and getting involved in an unwinnable war in Syria. Harper lost 90% of his cases in the Supreme Court, mainly because citizens challenged some of his actions or laws introduced by him. Instead of learning lessons from his mistakes he resorted to maligning the Chief Justice and the Canadian Supreme Court. But that backfired on him fairly swiftly and thank God someone put some sense into him to back off from that suicidal course.

In the end Canadians yearned for a change and as many as 70% wanted to see Harper out. They delivered and defeated him in a substantial manner.

The core of the problem for the Conservative Party of Canada is that instead maintaining a Centre Right posture, it has been hijacked by the extreme right Reform Party. Harper and his Reform Group almost completely sidelined the true Conservatives. One hopes, the real Conservatives will step forward and retake their party. Canada needs an effective and an organized opposition. It is time for Conservatives to distance themselves from the Harper era and rebuild their party in a way that it  represents true Canadian values.

Saturday, October 17, 2015


When Mr. Harper took reins of power in 2006, his Government comprised politicians most of whom had no previous ministerial experience. This showed up in Foreign Policy as potentially one of largest trading partners –China, was ignored for nearly eighteen months. China was on the rise then and very keen to bond with Canada on matters of trade, but then Foreign Minister took a position which was not consistent with Canada’s economic interests and values and a huge opportunity for a trade deal was lost.
Russia_China_Gas_Deal_400_Billion(picture courtesy:
Oil/Gas deal of the Century that should have been Canada's, but for failure of Stephen Harper's foreign policy
... dollar: $400 B China-Russia Gas <b>Deal</b> is Official! |

The unnecessary kerfuffle with United Arab Emirates led by John Baird over additional landing rights for UAE’s two world class airlines, resulted in Canada being unceremoniously dispatched from a free air base in Dubai, which served as an important back up for Canadian armed forces in Afghanistan. Moving the air base to Cyprus cost Canadian taxpayers nearly $300 million and on top of that UAE slapped visa requirement on Canadian citizens. Fortunately Mr. Baird came to senses later and made up with the UAE Government, the visa requirement was then withdrawn.

(picture courtesy:
The argument forwarded at the time was that increased flights by UAE airlines will hurt Air Canada in the future. Harper Government could have turned the landing rights request into a win win by asking UAE airlines to place a good size order for Bombardier's struggling new C series aircraft in exchange for extra landing rights. After all the U.S. President pushes Boeing aircraft on his foreign visits. UAE's two airlines are amongst the largest in the world and an order for 50 or 100 planes could have lifted Bombardier into becoming a major civilian aircraft maker in the world.

One of the biggest setbacks suffered by Harper Government’s foreign policy was the defeat at Security Council elections. Never before had Canada suffered such humiliation as whenever it was up for election, it always won the Security Council seat with good margins. The defeat was merely a reflection of how the world perceived Canada under Mr. Harper.

Canada has always been held in high esteem by the world, it has been considered a fair player and a promoter of peace around the world. Harper Government’s aggressive pro Israel one sided policy did considerable damage to Canada’s neutrality. Its total lack of humanitarian concern for Palestinians did not play well in many countries of the world including some in Europe. The loss of Security Council seat first time ever, may well have been a reaction to such policies.

Canada’s oil boom over the last several years has served Canadian economy well. When Harper Government came to power in 2006, Canada was in an ideal position to tie up long term oil supply contracts with China, but that potential was never realized. Oil pipelines to East & West Coast were not built. Lapsed time and lack of Captainship on the part of the Government increased obstacles in the way of building pipelines. Instead of Canada, Russia ended up signing that $400 billion oil supply contract with China. Also, when Ukraine erupted, a pipeline to east coast would have put Canada in an ideal position to replace Russia as the oil supplier to Western Europe. Harper Government’s total focus on the virtually doomed XL pipeline to U.S. tantamount to putting all eggs in one basket. The focus on this pipeline was at the cost of eastern and western pipelines.

In the nine years of Harper Government, several trade deals could have been negotiated and signed, especially with China and India two of the world’s top five economies, but no progress was made in that direction. However, to give full credit to Mr. Harper, the European Trade deal is a success, though it is not a done deal yet and any of the nineteen members can veto it. Chances are, it will go through eventually, but the benefit will be claimed by the next Prime Minister.

It is too early to judge the benefits of Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) just signed, but it certainly has angles that may harm Canada’s economy, especially auto and agricultural sectors. Also, there is no certainty that U.S. Congress will pass it, so it could die before it is born. The deal has been led and driven by President Obama, who made Mr. Harper look like a silent spectator. U.S. cut a side deal with Japan leaving Canada out of the conversation and more importantly President Obama also cut a side deal with Mexico on auto parts, leaving Canada out of the equation. There was a time when Canada would have been in the forefront of such negotiations and neither U.S. nor any other country would have dared relegate Canada to this status.

So, on balance Harper Government’s Foreign Policy has been a failure. The long term impact of Canada’s isolation will translate into poor performance of Canadian economy, which is already facing the consequence of low oil prices.