A Military Coup in Egypt is a recipe for disaster, it could lead to an all out Civil War.

Photo courtesy CNN

The uprising just over a year ago at Tahrir Square, Cairo was against a military dictatorship. A military coup in Egypt now, could have disastrous consequences for this country of 85 million people, possibly damaging it irreparably.

Egyptian Military is one of the most incompetent, ill trained, corrupt and  disorganized militaries of the world. Their Generals have fattened on power and graft, they are incapable of running the military, let alone run the country.

The uprising then was against the corrupt and hated regime of Hosni Mubarak, a military dictator who ruled for 25 years with an iron grip. The general public rose against the choke hold and wanted to see a democratic set up in the country. But due to manipulation of Egyptian military, (backed by U.S.) underhand deals were made with Muslim Brotherhood in the hope of restricting them to parliament only. The plan was to have a pliable candidate elected as President, so all good and independent minded Presidential candidates were barred from contesting elections.

Like most unholy deals, this too came undone. Contrary to earlier promises, Brotherhood insisted on fielding a candidate for President and withtheir extensive network, they were able to capture enough votes to control the parliament and then the Presidency. This was not the result people had demonstrated for, in fact this was a negation of their hopes and aspirations. Had the military not cut a deal, Brotherhood would probably not have won more than a handful of seats in the parliament.

The anger on the streets of Egypt today against Morsi regime is because he does not represent the the majority. Most Egyprians want a secular, democratic Egypt with freedom for all and not the theocratic state Muslim Brotherhood wants.

A military coup is neither appropriate nor an option at this stage. Brotherhood came to power through elections and they should be allowed to serve out their term. Next elections should be held without military intervention and should be free and fair. If that were to happen, chances are, Brotherhood will be voted out of office. Democratic means should be the only method for a change.

If Morsi survives, he should realize that he has come to power due to military's manipulation and he does not represent the majority. He should take the views of the majority into consideration.

A military coup now is likely to pit the Brotherhood against the military. The general public may feel relieved momentarily, but they too are in no mood for military rule again. In a worse case scenario, Brotherhood could take up arms Taliban style and inflict heavy blows on the military causing great upheaval leading to an all out civil war.

The Egypt Military and its sponsor (the U.S., the great champion of democracy) should think again before taking any steps to overthrow an elected regime, no matter how unpopular.

MUBARAK'S STAY WILL ONLY PUSH EGYPT INTO BROTHERHOOD'S LAP

The Egyptian demonstrations have been led by common folks wanting a corrupt and a dictatorial leader out of power and out of their country. The Muslim Brotherhood is a late comer to the game. In fact the first few days of uprising they stood on the sidelines probably fearing that crowds could turn on them. Watching things heat up, they have gradually come into the fold. By now it is a well known fact that the uprising has nothing to do with the Brotherhood, but, if there is no quick resolution and uncertainty continues, they stand to reap rewards far greater than they deserve.

The Obama Administration's backtracking on Hosni Mubarak's departure may have inflicted a minor blow to the uprising. But Hosni Mubarak's plan to stay till September and oversee election of his cronies will not be palatable to the Egyptian public. They have had enough of him in thirty years and they want to see the back of him sooner rather than later. The self appointed pundits like Farid Zakaria saying that army will outlast the crowds will probably be proven wrong, as usual.

Egyptian economy has already suffered $3 billion damage and the longer Mubarak remains as Head of State (with or without full powers), the demonstrations will continue and the losses will multiply. Hosni Mubarak has no credibility to bring a meaningful change to Egyptian constitution or arrange an orderly transition. At this time, he is a catalyst for more violence and upheaval. He should leave Egypt NOW before he suffers a Mussolini like fate.

The immediate need is to pacify Egyptian public by replacing Mubarak with an interim non-political Authority with a mandate to come up with a constitutional reform package and oversee a fair and transparent election. The interim authority should ideally be headed by a superior court judge and not by the Vice President or the Speaker (both Mubarak's party men). Once Mubarak is out and the Authority is in place, the public will most likely go back to their daily lives.

Only then can the new political parties be formed and electioneering begin in earnest. If this path is followed, chances are Egyptian public will reject the Brotherhood, who will be lucky to get 2 to 3% of the vote. However, a prolonged agitation will only strengthen their hands and they would gain significantly by playing on people's fears.

It is time for President Obama and Hillary Clinton to act as visionary leaders, with behind the scenes diplomacy and not many public statements. Also, they should not pay attention to those advisors who are for Mubarak's stay or continued involvement till September. Lest the Iranain revolution repeats itself in Egypt.