A Military Coup in Egypt is a recipe for disaster, it could lead to an all out Civil War.

Photo courtesy CNN

The uprising just over a year ago at Tahrir Square, Cairo was against a military dictatorship. A military coup in Egypt now, could have disastrous consequences for this country of 85 million people, possibly damaging it irreparably.

Egyptian Military is one of the most incompetent, ill trained, corrupt and  disorganized militaries of the world. Their Generals have fattened on power and graft, they are incapable of running the military, let alone run the country.

The uprising then was against the corrupt and hated regime of Hosni Mubarak, a military dictator who ruled for 25 years with an iron grip. The general public rose against the choke hold and wanted to see a democratic set up in the country. But due to manipulation of Egyptian military, (backed by U.S.) underhand deals were made with Muslim Brotherhood in the hope of restricting them to parliament only. The plan was to have a pliable candidate elected as President, so all good and independent minded Presidential candidates were barred from contesting elections.

Like most unholy deals, this too came undone. Contrary to earlier promises, Brotherhood insisted on fielding a candidate for President and withtheir extensive network, they were able to capture enough votes to control the parliament and then the Presidency. This was not the result people had demonstrated for, in fact this was a negation of their hopes and aspirations. Had the military not cut a deal, Brotherhood would probably not have won more than a handful of seats in the parliament.

The anger on the streets of Egypt today against Morsi regime is because he does not represent the the majority. Most Egyprians want a secular, democratic Egypt with freedom for all and not the theocratic state Muslim Brotherhood wants.

A military coup is neither appropriate nor an option at this stage. Brotherhood came to power through elections and they should be allowed to serve out their term. Next elections should be held without military intervention and should be free and fair. If that were to happen, chances are, Brotherhood will be voted out of office. Democratic means should be the only method for a change.

If Morsi survives, he should realize that he has come to power due to military's manipulation and he does not represent the majority. He should take the views of the majority into consideration.

A military coup now is likely to pit the Brotherhood against the military. The general public may feel relieved momentarily, but they too are in no mood for military rule again. In a worse case scenario, Brotherhood could take up arms Taliban style and inflict heavy blows on the military causing great upheaval leading to an all out civil war.

The Egypt Military and its sponsor (the U.S., the great champion of democracy) should think again before taking any steps to overthrow an elected regime, no matter how unpopular.

US Support for the Military could push Egypt into Brotherhood's Lap

The Arab Spring in Egypt came so that the people can rid themselves of the old guard and elect a democratic Government. Getting rid of Hosni Mubarak was a major achievement, but the Government falling in the hands of the military and Field Marshall Tantawi was a bad idea.

Tantawi is an agent of status quo, not change. He was Mubarak's man, he used brutal force then and he is using brutal force now. Tantawi and the Military are supported by the US. The tear gas canisters being fired at protesters and bullets flying around Tahrir Square are all US supplied. US must immediately suspend all military shipments to Egypt and withdraw support from the military until they step aside.

Months have passed since Mubarak's overthrow and neither a new constitution is in place nor have general elections taken place. The Egyptian public has no confidence in this set up to hold fair elections. If this situation continues, the net beneficiary will be the Brotherhood, which thrive on chaos.

If military does not step aside and violence continues, Egypt could become ungovernable. Tantawi must step down immediately. A new interim Government headed by a Supreme Court judge should hold free and fair elections to elect true representatives of the people.

The White House, State and Defense Departments should recognize that their support to military has backfired. It is time use pressure on military to step aside and let free election take place.

Gaddafi's demise - he brought it upon himself.

Col. Gaddafi is dead, confirms Reuters. No surprise as it was expected. He brought it upon himself.

It was suggested in this blog earlier that once Arab spring had started in Tunisia and engulfed Egypt too, Gaddafi should have seen the hurricane coming his way. He should have immediately announced elections in three months and offered to step down once a new President (not one of his sons) and Parliament were elected. Had he done that, he may possibly have lived his retired life in peace.

But dictators never learn a lesson from the downfall of other dictators. They somehow think, they will last forever, but they don't, do they? Gaddafi may have been a benevolent dictator, but a dictator nevertheless.

He transformed Libya from a poor country under the rule of an ailing King to a relatively prosperous country. But running the country as his personal fiefdom with an iron grip on power for forty one years ultimately did him in.

Let us hope the new rulers of Libya stop the bloodshed now, take back weapons from all fighters and install an interim Government quickly. The interim set up should hold free and fair elections within three months and hand over power to elected representatives. If they do this, Libya and its people will be on their feet again fairly quickly. But if they resort to revenge killings, property destruction etc. of their opponents, Libya could slip into civil war.

Libya in Turmoil, is Civil War imminent?

The riots in Ben Ghazi and other Libyan cities have become violent. Gaddafi's security forces have responded with force and brutality. It appears that protesters overran a Cantonment in Ben Ghazi capturing tanks and other military weapons. Ben Ghazi now seems to be in the hands of protesters.

The stark warning on live television by Gaddafi's son yesterday does not bode well for Libya and may in fact lead this (relatively calm - until now) country into civil war.

Gaddafi has ruled the country unchallenged for almost 41 years since he overthrew King Idris in 1969. Contrary to other Arab rulers, Gaddafi does not seem to have amassed wealth in his personal accounts. He has used oil revenues for welfare of his citizens. The poor in Libya may be content and not inclined to riot.

The revolution in Libya is quite different from that in Tunisia and Egypt, where corrupt rulers held sway for a very long time. In Libya, it is matter of freedom and democracy and removing restrictions from a state shackle hold. The middle and educated classes want a proper democracy, freedom of assembly and speech and quite rightly so.

There is a new awakening in the Middle East and NO this is not because of George W. Bush's disastrous war in Iraq, which killed 100,000 Iraqis and 6,000 Americans. Egypt has shown us that regime change can be accomplished without violence provided it is home grown and people are united. There is a new mood in the Middle East and despotic rulers better watch out.

Libya is not Gaddafi's personal fiefdom, he should step down and let an orderly process of change take place. His son's tone was defiant and threatening, promising to unleash the armed forces on the protesters. This may just be a last ditch effort by a dying regime. However, if the armed forces are brought to streets to crush the protesters that could lead to a civil war with horrific consequences.

The Libyan Armed forces should refuse orders to shoot their own people.

Democracy Now reports more deaths

18 DAYS TO END 30 YEAR DICTATORSHIP, WHAT NOW? DEMOCRACY CANNOT FLOW FROM THE BARREL OF THE GUN

It took valiant Egyptian youth only 18 days to end a 30 year dictatorship. Good riddance Hosni Mubarak.

By freezing Mubarak's bank accounts, Switzerland has thrown the gauntlet to all other Governments to freeze his assets and return the looted wealth to Egyptian people.

For now the military has taken charge of Egypt, however this cannot be a satisfactory solution. Egypt has been ruled by military dictators ever since King Farouk was deposed in 1952. If the military stays in charge for a while, they may get comfortable in their new role and become an obstacle in the way of an open and a flourishing democracy, which is what the Egyptians want.

The preferred solution is, for a Supreme Court judge to head the interim Government comprising civilians whose task it should be to return Egypt to normalcy, start rebuilding the economy and hold fair, transparent and democratic elections so that power can be transferred to elected representatives in four to six months. Military's role should be restricted to maintaining law and order only.

Also, the current Egyptian constitution is in shambles and beyond repair, the interim Government should immediately appoint a Constitutional Commission comprising eminent Egyptian jurists with a mandate to draw up a new and democratic constitution. After the elections, the first order of business for the new parliament should be to approve or amend this constitution as it deems fit.

The Egyptian military has seen people power in the last 18 days, so hopefully they they will respond to their aspirations. However, if they get greedy and go for power grab, the outcome for the Military will probably be far worse than it was for Mubarak.

EGYPT CELEBRATES

Protests Spreading in Egypt, Democracy Now reports

Egyptian Protests Continue

AlJazeera English reports that Labor Unions have now joined the ranks of protestors in Egypt. Things appear to be spinning out of control. Time is of essence and if Egypt is to experience a relatively peaceful transition to democracy and multi-party rule, it is time for Obama Administration and European countries to impress upon Hosni Mubarak to step down.

Alexandria, Egypt Prtoests

HOSNI MUBARAK SHOULD STEP DOWN IMMDEIATELY

No amount of promises will satisfy the Egyptian people, Hosni Mubarak should step down now. Perhaps it is too late already for an orderly transition, but the longer he lingers, the more violent is the transition likely to be.

Mubarak has ruled Egypt with an iron fist for thirty years, no wonder the anger is boiling over in the streets. He has not allowed any opposition candidate to run against him, most opponents have been languishing in jail for years. A vast number of Egyptians remain poor and have not benefited from economic prosperity that a few have enjoyed. Mubarak and his cronies live extravagant lifestyle in palaces like kings.

Mubarak's grooming of his son as his successor may be the proverbial "last straw that broke the camel's back". People have had enough of one Mubarak and they are not ready for another. Also, Egypt is not a kingdom, where a son can take over reigns of power when the father dies or retires. Tunisian uprising may have lit a fire in the Middle East, but anger has been boiling in Egypt for quite some time now, all it needed was a fuse.

To prevent conditions getting worse, Hosni Mubarak should hand over power to an interim non-partisan authority, whose sole task should be to hold free and fair elections within 90 days. This can prevent further violence as angers will cool down and the public will feel empowered to elect a leader of their choice. Failure to step down will only result in more violence, death and destruction and a severe blow to Egyptian economy. MR. MUBARAK, PLEASE GO NOW AND SAVE YOUR COUNTRY.

Pakistan - Democracy & A New Prime Minister

Democracy Returns to Pakistan

After nine years of President Musharraf's dictatorial rule in Pakistan democracy is on the threshold of returning to Pakistan once again. On February 18, 2008 the people of Pakistan voted to elect secular and popular political parties opposed to President Musharraf.

President Bush got his foreign policy bet wrong again. He supported Musharraf during and after the elections even though the people of his country had rejected him. Bush's blind support for Musharraf during Pakistan's blackest days when he illegally suspended the constitution, deposed and arrested the Chief Justice and sixty other judges of the Supreme and High Courts. The resulted the lawyers community starting a massive anti-Musharraf campaign in the country. Even those horrific pictures on our television screens showing black suited lawyers being beaten up and mishandled did not cause the Bush Administration to re-examine its policy. This has certainly not endeared the US to many in Pakistan. Only if they knew that nothing much Bush does that endears him to his own people.

A new National Assembly has been sworn in and a Prime Minister will be elected on Monday and a new democratically elected government will be in place on Tuesday March 25, 2008. The Government elect has decided to make it their priority to restore the Chief Justice and all other Judges removed by Musharraf.

Thus Musharraf era has come to an end. In his earlier years he did some good work for his country but because of his actions in the last twelve months, people of Pakistan cannot wait to see the back of him.