(Picture courtesy www.celebuzz.com)
After a three and half hour voluntary interview with FBI this weekend, it is still not clear whether FBI would indict Hillary Clinton on the email issue. Pundits give it a 3% chance, but even 1% could come back to bite. Assuming there is no indictment, Hillary Clinton is running away with the prize. Trump is losing ground in all swing States even in some traditional Republican States.
The latest polls in 'Real Clear Politics' Blog present the following picture in swing States:
State Clinton% Trump%
Pennsylvania 46.0 43.7
Florida 46.5 42.8
Ohio 44.3 41.8
Virginia 43.8 39.8
North Carolina 44.0 43.3
New Hampshire 44.5 41.8
Georgia 40.8 45.0
Trump leads in only one of these States and Georgia is not a true swing State as it traditionally votes Republican, except on certain occasions.
Trump will get a bump in the polls after Republican Convention in two weeks, however that bump will mostly be canceled out by Democratic Convention later. Also, President Obama is actively campaigning for Hillary Clinton. Currently he is sitting high on popularity levels and attracts many young voters.
An indictment by FBI could upset the whole apple cart, it could send Trump soaring in the polls, but it would also bring in new faces as candidates, some of whom like the Bloomberg, former Mayor of New York, could severely challenge Trump. An FBI decision should be coming down shortly.