CRUSHING OIL PRICES - DO NOT PUSH THE BEAR TO THE WALL. IN A DESPERATE MOVE, HE COULD RETALIATE & TURN OIL TAPS OFF TO WESTERN EUROPE, DESTROYING THEIR FRAGILE ECONOMIES AND IN TURN THE WORLD ECONOMY.

President Putin, picture courtesy Wikepedia.org

The decline of oil prices from $100 in mid 2014 to $57 now is no coincidence, nor does it have anything do with supply and demand as oil demand has certainly not halved in six months.

It is seriously suspected that oil prices are being manipulated by U.S. to crush Russia and to make them pay for re-possessing Crimea from Ukraine. When sanctions and all else failed, U.S. seems to have decided to hit Russia, where it hurts most - in the pocket. The Russian Ruble is in a free fall and despite a recent raise in Russian Central Bank rate from 10 to 17%, the Ruble is not even half its worth what it was a year ago.
According to some estimates, it is costing Russia around $70  a barrel to extract oil, if that is accurate, Russia is in net loss of $13 per barrel it produces and sells. This could hit Russian economy hard, inflation could sky rocket, post Soviet style bread lines could form again with possible loss of popularity for Putin from its current 85% level. And that is exactly what U.S. may be hoping to accomplish. Such a policy may have a short term impact, but long term, it could have a devastating effect on the world economy.
A desperate Putin with his back to the wall could adopt 'Destroy West' policy by turning off oil taps overnight to Western Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russian oil. The already fragile European economies will not be able to withstand such a shock and may go into recession or even a depression, which in turn would hit all the economies of the world, including that of the U.S. resulting in a 1930s style worldwide depression.
The Obama Administration needs to reign in its anti Russia hawks and think long and hard about the consequences such a policy. Better sense should prevail before the bear hits back with a vengeance.

U.S. & Russia are both resposible for the mess in Ukraine. Canada should have stayed neutral in the conflict, restriction on its Agricultural exports to Russia will cost Canadian farmers $500 million+ a year.

The Ukraine is a mess and both United States & Russia are equally responsible. U.S. provided support and instigated rioting against a pro Russian but an elected Ukrainian President. This is part of super power supremacy game as under the garb of friendship, U.S. has been trying to encircle Russia by bringing in some of the former Soviet Union component states into Europe & NATO. Also, the plan to install missiles in Poland and overthrowing an elected Government in Ukraine are part of the same game.

Russia on its part has been opportunistic, first grabbing Abkhazia from Georgia, then Crimea from Ukraine. Russia knows what U.S. is trying to do and it is playing its own game in response to U.S. policies.

Europe is stuck in the middle and while U.S. has been trying to strong arm it against Russia, but as their energy needs are largely met by Russia they are not in a position to be too gung ho. Germany alone imports 30% of its energy needs from Russia and if Russia starts to turn off the tap, not only European, but the world economy could collapse. Fortunately, Russia is not that position yet. In about three years, when their new pipelines will be built to China, they may be able to do just that.

Meanwhile, Canada's Harper Government has taken an untenable hardline on Russia. Both Stephen Harper and his rather immature Foreign Minister - John Baird have been posturing aggressively. Getting involved in super power games is a folly as it will harm Canada's interests. By staying neutral, Canada could have played an important role in bringing Russian & Ukrainian leaders to the negotiating table to find a peaceful solution.

By slapping sanctions on Russia, perhaps the Harper Government forgot that Canada exports a fair bit to Russia. The retaliatory sanctions on Canada will cost $500m+ a year to the Canadian farmers and this just the start. If Harper Government keeps its posture, Russia could tighten the screws further. Mr. Harper is jeopardizing Canada's already fragile economy. Also, the failure of this Government to build any oil pipelines to Eastern or Western Canada is placing Canada at a serious disadvantage. Had a pipeline been built to the Eastern shores, we could have replaced Russia as an oil supplier to Europe.

Canada's history shows that by staying neutral, it has contributed a great deal more and helped end conflicts, which is  why Canada's stature was so high in the world. Sadly, Mr. Harper lowered Canada's prestige in the world.

SOME AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY SUCCESSES UNDER BUSH & OBAMA

• INSTIGATED ANTI RUSSIAN RIOTS IN GEORGIA - LOST ABKHAZIA TO RUSSIA

• LOST IRAQ WAR - AN UNJUSTIFIED WAR, DELIVERED IRAQ INTO THE LAP OF IRANIANS - LOST THOUSANDS OF U.S. SOLDIERS AND HALF A MILLION IRAQIS, SPENT WELL OVER $3 TRILLION (SEVERAL BILLIONS CASH WENT MISSING).
• LOST AFGHANISTAN WAR, A JUSTIFIED WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN WRAPPED UP IN THREE MONTHS. 13 YEARS LATER, SEVERAL THOUSAND U.S. SOLDIERS STILL IN AFGHANISTAN, THOUGH WINDING DOWN. $1 TRILLION SPENT WITHOUT ANY RESULTS, WITH SEVERAL THOUSAND US & AFGHANS DEAD.
• STAGED AN UPRISING IN LIBYA, OVERTHROWING QADDAFI, HIS PUBLIC BEATING AND MURDER, SOON AFTER PUBLIC BEATING AND MURDER OF US AMBASSADOR IN LIBYA,. DELIVERING LIBYA TO SEVERAL PRO AL-QAEDA GROUPS WITH ENSUING CHAOS.
• MANIPULATED A MILITARY COUP IN EGYPT, DEPOSING AN ELECTED PRESIDENT DEALING A GEAT BLOW TO DEMOCRACY. THE CORRUPT AND THUGGISH MILITARY GENERALS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF CONQUERING THEIR OWN PEOPLE - YET ONCE AGAIN
• INSTIGATED RIOTS IN UKRAINE, RUNNING OFF YET ANOTHER ELECTED PRESIDENT FROM OFFICE (SECOND WITHIN 12 MONTHS) - DELIVERING CRIMEA IN  RUSSIA'S LAP.

SOME FOREIGN POLICY SUCCESSES INDEED!

IT IS TIME FOR HARPER GOVERNMENT TO STOP BEING AMERICA'S MOUTHPIECE AND STEP FORWARD AS A MEDIATOR IN UKRAINE

(Sergey Ponomarev's photo courtesy New York Times)

The knee jerk reaction of Harper Government on the Ukraine situation is  not helping to turn the temperature down, instead it could create more difficulties for the Ukrainian public from a more aggressive Russia. Instead of taking a hard right pro U.S. position, Canada should have taken a middle of the road approach whereby it could act as a mediator in resolving the crisis.

Germany's Angela Merkel has demonstrated a great deal more maturity by suggesting a peaceful resolution rather than Harper Government's empty threats of imposing sanctions on Russia and expelling it from the G8.

To start with, Mr. Harper needs to restrain his Foreign Minister, whose aggressive tactics  have done more damage to Canada's foreign relations than good. His handling of relations with UAE resulting in Canada losing a free military base in Dubai, with an estimated cost of a few hundred million dollars to Canadian tax payer is a case in point.

It is obvious that U.S. interference in Russia's back yard has brought Ukraine to this situation. A deft handling and a diplomatic solution is what is required here. Alas, Canada has lost its position as a neutral umpire, whereby it could offer to mediate between aggrieved parties, rather than take an extreme position as the Harper Government has done.

A peaceful solution to Ukraine's situation would be where the people's aspirations are met, where the minorities are not afraid of domination and persecution by the majority and where Russia does not feel, there is a hostile Government in place right next door.

This is a great opportunity for Mr. Harper to demonstrate leadership, maturity and diplomatic prowess. By actively helping to resolve the Ukraine situation, he could distinguish himself from a bunch of mediocre Western leaders. This requires him to get on that plane to Moscow and talk to President Putin, ask him for restraint and find out what it would take to diffuse the situation and bring the Ukranian and Russian leadership together for a peaceful resolution.

It may already be too late for Mr. Harper as Russian and U.S. Foreign Ministers have started a direct dialogue, though there may still be space for Canada to play a role. There may be issues that Russia and U.S. may not want to talk to each other about, but could open up to a neutral third party.

Mr. Harper, stand up and make Canada proud.

IS THE U.S. RESPONSIBLE FOR RUSSIAN MILITARY INTERVENTION IN UKRAINE?

(This Reuters picture of Russian troops in Crimea, courtesy Voice of America website)

Only a couple of weeks ago, Henry Kissinger had warned that Ukraine is very important to Russia and it being their backyard, they will never accept a hostile regime in that country.

The hawks in Washington D.C. were obviously not listening. In a recorded conversation (aired on CNN and other media), an American diplomat was caught red handed, trying to incite anti Ukraine President elements when Russia and Putin were busy putting on a good face at Sochi Winter Olympics.

It is the second time within a year that a legitimately elected President has been run out of office with U.S. backing through street protests, gun toting criminals and thuggish Generals, just because U.S. did not like the legally elected regime.

First it was Egypt, where Mohammad Morsi's Government was overthrown by the criminal, crooked and corrupt Egyptian Generals who have stolen billions of dollars over the last fifty years to fill their own pockets, while masses get poorer. Now it is Ukraine, where a legitimately elected Pro Russian Presidnet - Viktor Yanukovych has been run out of office. In his place, a Prime Minister has been appointed who could only get less than 9% votes in Presidential election against Yanukovych.

This is not to say that Morsi and Yanukovych were innocent. They had taken many unpopular decisions  that turned majority of their populations against them. However, there is still no reason for U.S. or any other country to interfere in another country's internal affairs. These are (or were) nascent democracies and it is a process that the people of those countries have to go through to elect better leaders.

Nikita Kruschev had handed over Crimea to Ukraine in the 50s probably under the assumption that that USSR will remain intact and Ukraine will always be a component of it. Did the U.S. really think that Russia will standby and watch from a distance while U.S. sponsored the overthrow of Ukrainian Government? If policy makers in the U.S. believed that, then they couldn't be more naive or ill informed. If this is a game to bog Russia down in Ukraine, it may work for a time, but eventually it could backfire on the West and on the people of Ukraine.

These actions have resulted in Russian troops entering Crimea and they are probably itching to enter the rest of Ukraine. Regardless of what President Obama says or how much noise his bumbling Secretary of State makes, they should have known better. They should have known that the outcome will be exactly like this. Instead of helping the people of Ukraine and strengthening democratic institutions in that country, they may just have added to their miseries for a long time to come.  

They should have heeded Henry Kissinger's advice.

From Cold War to Detente to Cold War

Ronald Reagan had so skillfully broken up the Soviet Union by calling them an evil empire. He asked Gorbachev to tear down the Berlin wall and succeeded. Unfortunately, the Bush Administration has restored Russia's position to pre-Detente level through its failed, impractical, and aggressive foreign policy.

By pushing nuclear missiles in Russia's back yard Bush Administration has woken up the sleeping giant. This act is akin to Soviet Union installing missiles in Cuba during the Bay of Pigs crisis. President Medvedev is now openly talking about the re-start of a cold war. President Bush and Condi Rice are totally clueless about world politics. They aggressively push their agendas on other nations without realizing consequences. They go about like a bull in a china shop. They need lessons in diplomacy from the Chinese, who have so deftly handled North Korea situation to disarm that nation's nuclear weapons.

The Russian invasion of Georgia could have been averted. Instead Bush Administration became paralyzed in its own propaganda. It is now clear that Georgian President launched a devastating attack on South Ossetia. President Bush should have immediately acknowledged that Georgia was wrong and should have called Russian to leaders to assure them that it will stop immediately. Instead Bush and Condi lived in denial while Russia invaded, resulting in a humiliating defeat for Georgia and now it seems the loss of South Ossetia and Abkhazai.

The evil empire that was so skillfully demolished by Reagan has been rebuilt on the shoulders of an incompetent Bush Administration. Perhaps this is George W. Bush's legacy - an abysmal failure of foreign policy.