Just Not Ready? The Defeat of Stephen Harper

Photo courtesy:canadianflyboy.wordpress.com


'Just Not Ready' is the slogan Stephen Harper used against Justin Trudeau in Canada's election campaign. Though false, the ad seemed to be clever in the beginning, but its frequent repetition  annoyed many Canadian voters as it smacked of arrogance - a trait well entrenched in the soon to be former Prime Minister. Justin Trudeau's very effective response to it also literally demolished any impact the ad may have had made in earlier days. But that was not the main cause of Harper's defeat.


There were a number of factors that contributed to it. Harper ran a secretive Government, where he held all the cards close to his chest. Even members of his own party were not allowed to speak their mind, instead they were instructed to stick to talking points issued by PM office. After the October 19 defeat, several Conservative party members have openly criticized Harper for his handling of elections. Suddenly, it is as if an Iron Curtain has been lifted.


It is understood that early on, Harper instructed the bureaucrats to call the Canadian Government the Harper Government as if it was his personal fiefdom. The Prime Minister's Office (PMO) became the main power centre, where some of the alleged crooked deal for Senator Duffy were cooked and concealed from the public. Nine years earlier, Harper had come in with a promise for a transparent and clean Government, what he delivered was the opposite. He promised to reform the Senate, but despite having a majority, he did nothing. Instead he stuffed the Senate with 56 appointees, many of whom his cronies, who proved to be incompetent and some are currently facing criminal charges.


In recent months, he passed two laws which are out and out draconian. Bill C51 & Bill C24. Canadians like to feel safe, but they do not want their freedoms restricted by Patriot Act like Bill C51. Thankfully Trudeau has promised to change it and remove offending clauses. Bill C24 is another story. This is the single most disastrous legislation brought about by Harper through his Citizenship Minister, Chris Alexander, whereby the Minister anointed himself as the prosecutor, judge, jury and the executioner. Any dual citizen suspected of terrorism can be stripped of Canadian citizenship by the Minister without any hearing or appeal and Minister's decision cannot be challenged in any court of Law. Hopefully Trudeau will make it an early priority to repeal this grotesque law.

Harper's Citizenship Minister, Chris Alexander who introduced the single most disastrous piece of legislation in the form of Bill C24.

Over nine years, Harper's missteps were many. Ignoring China earlier on, and not promoting trade agreements with China & India, missing trade opportunities for Canadian Companies, the unnecessary fight with United Arab Emirates over landing rights, getting involved in a war in Libya, which handed the country over to terrorists and getting involved in an unwinnable war in Syria. Harper lost 90% of his cases in the Supreme Court, mainly because citizens challenged some of his actions or laws introduced by him. Instead of learning lessons from his mistakes he resorted to maligning the Chief Justice and the Canadian Supreme Court. But that backfired on him fairly swiftly and thank God someone put some sense into him to back off from that suicidal course.


In the end Canadians yearned for a change and as many as 70% wanted to see Harper out. They delivered and defeated him in a substantial manner.


The core of the problem for the Conservative Party of Canada is that instead maintaining a Centre Right posture, it has been hijacked by the extreme right Reform Party. Harper and his Reform Group almost completely sidelined the true Conservatives. One hopes, the real Conservatives will step forward and retake their party. Canada needs an effective and an organized opposition. It is time for Conservatives to distance themselves from the Harper era and rebuild their party in a way that it  represents true Canadian values.

CANADA HAS TO PAY THE PRICE OF HARPER GOVERNMENT’S FAILED FOREIGN POLICY

When Mr. Harper took reins of power in 2006, his Government comprised politicians most of whom had no previous ministerial experience. This showed up in Foreign Policy as potentially one of largest trading partners –China, was ignored for nearly eighteen months. China was on the rise then and very keen to bond with Canada on matters of trade, but then Foreign Minister took a position which was not consistent with Canada’s economic interests and values and a huge opportunity for a trade deal was lost.

(picture courtesy: sprottmoneyblog.com)

Oil/Gas deal of the Century that should have been Canada's, but for failure of Stephen Harper's foreign policy

(picture courtesy:silverdoctors.com

The unnecessary kerfuffle with United Arab Emirates led by John Baird over additional landing rights for UAE’s two world class airlines, resulted in Canada being unceremoniously dispatched from a free air base in Dubai, which served as an important back up for Canadian armed forces in Afghanistan. Moving the air base to Cyprus cost Canadian taxpayers nearly $300 million and on top of that UAE slapped visa requirement on Canadian citizens. Fortunately Mr. Baird came to senses later and made up with the UAE Government, the visa requirement was then withdrawn.

(picture courtesy: tripadvisor.com)

The argument forwarded at the time was that increased flights by UAE airlines will hurt Air Canada in the future. Harper Government could have turned the landing rights request into a win win by asking UAE airlines to place a good size order for Bombardier's struggling new C series aircraft in exchange for extra landing rights. After all the U.S. President pushes Boeing aircraft on his foreign visits. UAE's two airlines are amongst the largest in the world and an order for 50 or 100 planes could have lifted Bombardier into becoming a major civilian aircraft maker in the world.

 

One of the biggest setbacks suffered by Harper Government’s foreign policy was the defeat at Security Council elections. Never before had Canada suffered such humiliation as whenever it was up for election, it always won the Security Council seat with good margins. The defeat was merely a reflection of how the world perceived Canada under Mr. Harper.

Canada has always been held in high esteem by the world, it has been considered a fair player and a promoter of peace around the world. Harper Government’s aggressive pro Israel one sided policy did considerable damage to Canada’s neutrality. Its total lack of humanitarian concern for Palestinians did not play well in many countries of the world including some in Europe. The loss of Security Council seat first time ever, may well have been a reaction to such policies.

Canada’s oil boom over the last several years has served Canadian economy well. When Harper Government came to power in 2006, Canada was in an ideal position to tie up long term oil supply contracts with China, but that potential was never realized. Oil pipelines to East & West Coast were not built. Lapsed time and lack of Captainship on the part of the Government increased obstacles in the way of building pipelines. Instead of Canada, Russia ended up signing that $400 billion oil supply contract with China. Also, when Ukraine erupted, a pipeline to east coast would have put Canada in an ideal position to replace Russia as the oil supplier to Western Europe. Harper Government’s total focus on the virtually doomed XL pipeline to U.S. tantamount to putting all eggs in one basket. The focus on this pipeline was at the cost of eastern and western pipelines.

In the nine years of Harper Government, several trade deals could have been negotiated and signed, especially with China and India two of the world’s top five economies, but no progress was made in that direction. However, to give full credit to Mr. Harper, the European Trade deal is a success, though it is not a done deal yet and any of the nineteen members can veto it. Chances are, it will go through eventually, but the benefit will be claimed by the next Prime Minister.

It is too early to judge the benefits of Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) just signed, but it certainly has angles that may harm Canada’s economy, especially auto and agricultural sectors. Also, there is no certainty that U.S. Congress will pass it, so it could die before it is born. The deal has been led and driven by President Obama, who made Mr. Harper look like a silent spectator. U.S. cut a side deal with Japan leaving Canada out of the conversation and more importantly President Obama also cut a side deal with Mexico on auto parts, leaving Canada out of the equation. There was a time when Canada would have been in the forefront of such negotiations and neither U.S. nor any other country would have dared relegate Canada to this status.

So, on balance Harper Government’s Foreign Policy has been a failure. The long term impact of Canada’s isolation will translate into poor performance of Canadian economy, which is already facing the consequence of low oil prices.

U.S. & Russia are both resposible for the mess in Ukraine. Canada should have stayed neutral in the conflict, restriction on its Agricultural exports to Russia will cost Canadian farmers $500 million+ a year.

The Ukraine is a mess and both United States & Russia are equally responsible. U.S. provided support and instigated rioting against a pro Russian but an elected Ukrainian President. This is part of super power supremacy game as under the garb of friendship, U.S. has been trying to encircle Russia by bringing in some of the former Soviet Union component states into Europe & NATO. Also, the plan to install missiles in Poland and overthrowing an elected Government in Ukraine are part of the same game.

Russia on its part has been opportunistic, first grabbing Abkhazia from Georgia, then Crimea from Ukraine. Russia knows what U.S. is trying to do and it is playing its own game in response to U.S. policies.

Europe is stuck in the middle and while U.S. has been trying to strong arm it against Russia, but as their energy needs are largely met by Russia they are not in a position to be too gung ho. Germany alone imports 30% of its energy needs from Russia and if Russia starts to turn off the tap, not only European, but the world economy could collapse. Fortunately, Russia is not that position yet. In about three years, when their new pipelines will be built to China, they may be able to do just that.

Meanwhile, Canada's Harper Government has taken an untenable hardline on Russia. Both Stephen Harper and his rather immature Foreign Minister - John Baird have been posturing aggressively. Getting involved in super power games is a folly as it will harm Canada's interests. By staying neutral, Canada could have played an important role in bringing Russian & Ukrainian leaders to the negotiating table to find a peaceful solution.

By slapping sanctions on Russia, perhaps the Harper Government forgot that Canada exports a fair bit to Russia. The retaliatory sanctions on Canada will cost $500m+ a year to the Canadian farmers and this just the start. If Harper Government keeps its posture, Russia could tighten the screws further. Mr. Harper is jeopardizing Canada's already fragile economy. Also, the failure of this Government to build any oil pipelines to Eastern or Western Canada is placing Canada at a serious disadvantage. Had a pipeline been built to the Eastern shores, we could have replaced Russia as an oil supplier to Europe.

Canada's history shows that by staying neutral, it has contributed a great deal more and helped end conflicts, which is  why Canada's stature was so high in the world. Sadly, Mr. Harper lowered Canada's prestige in the world.

IT IS TIME FOR HARPER GOVERNMENT TO STOP BEING AMERICA'S MOUTHPIECE AND STEP FORWARD AS A MEDIATOR IN UKRAINE

(Sergey Ponomarev's photo courtesy New York Times)

The knee jerk reaction of Harper Government on the Ukraine situation is  not helping to turn the temperature down, instead it could create more difficulties for the Ukrainian public from a more aggressive Russia. Instead of taking a hard right pro U.S. position, Canada should have taken a middle of the road approach whereby it could act as a mediator in resolving the crisis.

Germany's Angela Merkel has demonstrated a great deal more maturity by suggesting a peaceful resolution rather than Harper Government's empty threats of imposing sanctions on Russia and expelling it from the G8.

To start with, Mr. Harper needs to restrain his Foreign Minister, whose aggressive tactics  have done more damage to Canada's foreign relations than good. His handling of relations with UAE resulting in Canada losing a free military base in Dubai, with an estimated cost of a few hundred million dollars to Canadian tax payer is a case in point.

It is obvious that U.S. interference in Russia's back yard has brought Ukraine to this situation. A deft handling and a diplomatic solution is what is required here. Alas, Canada has lost its position as a neutral umpire, whereby it could offer to mediate between aggrieved parties, rather than take an extreme position as the Harper Government has done.

A peaceful solution to Ukraine's situation would be where the people's aspirations are met, where the minorities are not afraid of domination and persecution by the majority and where Russia does not feel, there is a hostile Government in place right next door.

This is a great opportunity for Mr. Harper to demonstrate leadership, maturity and diplomatic prowess. By actively helping to resolve the Ukraine situation, he could distinguish himself from a bunch of mediocre Western leaders. This requires him to get on that plane to Moscow and talk to President Putin, ask him for restraint and find out what it would take to diffuse the situation and bring the Ukranian and Russian leadership together for a peaceful resolution.

It may already be too late for Mr. Harper as Russian and U.S. Foreign Ministers have started a direct dialogue, though there may still be space for Canada to play a role. There may be issues that Russia and U.S. may not want to talk to each other about, but could open up to a neutral third party.

Mr. Harper, stand up and make Canada proud.

Guantanamo Disgrace

The shocking video of 16 year old Omar Khadr under interrogation by Canadian intelligence agents in violation of his child status and in complete violation of UN's convention on child soldiers is a shame for humanity. Some of Khadr's wounds were still raw and seeping even though he was captured several months prior to this interrogation. The unconscionable comment by a Canadian interrogator that "you are receiving pretty good medical treatment" has shocked most Canadians. In fact the entire world is shocked as can be gauged from the linked article:

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3489205,00.html

The Canadian interrogation was chilling enough but it was probably a great deal more civilized than what American interrogators would have subjected Khadr and others inmates to. Thank God for Canadians courts giving us an insight to this hell hole called Guantanamo. Stephen Harper needs to step up to his responsibility and have Khadr brought back to Canadian judicial system.

Guantanamo is George Bush's shame and this is his legacy. It is time to shut it down. The military tribunals are a farce. If the inmates are guilty of terrorist acts, try them under criminal law and if innocent, let them go.