Wednesday, October 29, 2008

PREDICTION - OBAMA TO WIN 353 DELEGATES TO MCCAIN'S 185

Check out CNN's electoral map today at:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

This currently gives Obama 277 delegates to McCain's 122 with 87 Toss Ups. They way current polling trend is going, Obama is likely to win from the toss up column, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Ohio & North Carolina and McCain Montana. That gives Obama 353 delegates to McCain's 185.

Some McCain states are becoming doubtful of late i.e. Indiana & Montana, but I am inclined to leave these in McCain's column. The popular vote gap may not be so wide, probably between 4 to 6 %.

Barack Obama should win at least 353 delegates if not more and that is a margin of 65:35.

Political Critic: http://politicalcritic.com/ is giving Obama 378:160 margin

8 comments:

Karlo said...

Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Mike said...

The polls look good for Obama. We will have to see what they look like after his TV show tonight. He has a half hour to convince all of us undecided voters (the ones the pollsters never talk to) that he is the man to do the job.
I will keep an open mind and see how I feel at 8:30 pm

Ajaz Haque said...

Personally, I think it is a mistake to do this half hour TV thing. Why try to do something different than the ordinary when you are ahead in polls. Why not just run out the clock.

Ajaz Haque said...

Mike
Did the Obama video help you make up your mind or are you still undecided?

Mike said...

Ajaz
I would have like Obama to explain where the 95 billion a year for his energy plan was going to come from. I would have liked for him to explain where the money for education, health care and all the other plans are coming from.
I do not fault his ideas, I just want to make sure he isn't going to borrow so much to achieve his dreams that we will have to become a province of China.
Of course the other reality is how Congress will react and act on his proposals.
I am still undecided. Not between Obama and McCain. The McCain I wanted to vote for in 2000 no longer exists. The current one is out of touch with too many things.
What I have to do now is decide if I should put my trust in Obama, or go in another direction.

Ajaz Haque said...

Mike
You raise excellent points. Already GWB has bumped country's debt from $5 to $11 trillion and any further increase will be inflationary and add to budget deficit.

Obama's plans are pre-bailout packages. A new President will have to cut spending and scale down new plans for at least 3 years. What I like about Obama is that he has surrounded himself with a fiscally conservative economic team and I doubt if they will want to borrow and spend.

It is strange how things have changed. Democrats under Clinton achieved budget surpluses and Bush Republicans turned out to be spend thrift.

I wouldn't look to Congress to cut spending, they always tend to bloat it.

Kvatch said...

I'm not worried yet, but the race appears to be tightening. At RealClearPolitics, Pennsylvania is no longer solidly Obama.

Ajaz Haque said...

Kvatch
You are right, the race is tightening as it was expected to. But I think, Ohio more than Pennsylvania is likely to go to McCain. The numbers stack up such that even if Pennsylvania, Ohio & North Carolina go to McCain, Obama still wins by 297:241 electoral votes.