DONALD TRUMP PRESIDENT AGAIN? 

TRUMP NOW LEADING IN ALL SEVEN BATTLEGROUND STATES BY A NARROW MARGIN

(Photo courtesy: Foxnews.com)

Real Clear Politics predicts that Donald Trump is NOW leading in all seven battleground states. This is an average of various polls. If this turns out to be correct on November 5, Donald Trump will be the next occupant of the White House. There are however other polls which show Harris leading in 4 of these seven states, what is true will only be out on November 5.

Top Battlegrounds – RCP Average

Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada

RCP AVERAGE	DATE	TRUMP (R)	HARRIS (D)	SPREAD
Top Battlegrounds	10/20	48.4	47.4	Trump+1.0
Arizona	October 20th	49.0	47.4	Trump+1.6
Nevada	October 20th	47.7	46.9	Trump+0.8
Wisconsin	October 20th	48.0	47.8	Trump+0.2
Michigan	October 20th	48.8	47.6	Trump+1.2
Pennsylvania	October 20th	47.9	47.1	Trump+0.8
North Carolina	October 20th	48.4	47.9	Trump+0.5
Georgia	October 20th	48.8	47.0	Trump+1.8

 THE STATE OF U.S. PRESIDENTAL ELECTION

        (Picture courtesy Reason.com)

Twenty-four days to go to the Presidential election on November 5, being the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Kamala Harris received a boost after Biden pulled out (or was forced out) of the race. At one point she was leading in opinion polls by 5-7%. but that was a post nomination bubble which seemed to have subsided.   to Real Clear Politics  Poll Average she is now leading by1.8% at 49% to Trump's 47.2%, i.e. a wafer thin lead and within the margin of error.

The Electoral College however, presents a different picture, where Trump leads by 219 to 215 votes with 104 votes to be decided in toss up states. Trump is leading in six of the seven states, albeit by a thin margin. But he seems to have taken the momentum back from Harris as a month ago, they were both leading in 3 states and one was a tie. The betting odds have also shifted significantly in Trump's favor  at 53.6% to Harris' 45%. The betting odds people usually have a pulse of the situation and that is why the odds have increased in Trump's favor. 

REAL CLEAR POLITICS ELECTION 2024

NATIONAL RCP AVERAGE

49.0

Harris (+1.8)

Trump

47.2

Latest National Polls

RCP ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP

219

Trump

104

Harris

215

Latest State Polls

If RCP polls are accurate, they project Trump to have 312 electoral votes to Harris' 236, a candidate needs 270 to win the White House.

While the race is still very tight and one mistake by a candidate can shift the balance, but the way things look at this point, Trump looks like the next President of the United States. 

  WILL MICHIGAN DECIDE THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE?

(Photo courtesy Yahoo.com)

For a long time Ohio was the deciding state in Presidential elections, but it seems this year the focus has changed to Michigan. Of the seven toss up states, Trump leads in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, while Harris leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan with Nevada a dead heat.

Kamala's post convention froth is settling down and she seems to be slowly losing the advantage. Her CNN interview did not help much and this while Dana Bash was soft on her and spared her tough questions. It all depends on how the respective campaigns do over the two months. The betting odds have improved in Trump's favor. Opinion polls don't involve any money, the betting odds do.

Another major challenge Democrats face is the control of Senate. Michigan has an open Senate seat after retirement of Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers is in the race against Democrat Elissa Slotkin. It is the most closely contested race. If the Republicans wins the race, it will be after 30 years in Michigan that a Republican Senator would have won a Senate seat.  It will also mean that the Republican Party could win the majority in the Senate.

(Mike Rogers, picture courtesy USA Today)

Mike Rogers is a former FBI agent, has strong views on the economy and may just upset the Senatorial equation.