THE STATE OF U.S. PRESIDENTAL ELECTION
Twenty-four days to go to the Presidential election on November 5, being the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Kamala Harris received a boost after Biden pulled out (or was forced out) of the race. At one point she was leading in opinion polls by 5-7%. but that was a post nomination bubble which seemed to have subsided. to Real Clear Politics Poll Average she is now leading by1.8% at 49% to Trump's 47.2%, i.e. a wafer thin lead and within the margin of error.
The Electoral College however, presents a different picture, where Trump leads by 219 to 215 votes with 104 votes to be decided in toss up states. Trump is leading in six of the seven states, albeit by a thin margin. But he seems to have taken the momentum back from Harris as a month ago, they were both leading in 3 states and one was a tie. The betting odds have also shifted significantly in Trump's favor at 53.6% to Harris' 45%. The betting odds people usually have a pulse of the situation and that is why the odds have increased in Trump's favor.
If RCP polls are accurate, they project Trump to have 312 electoral votes to Harris' 236, a candidate needs 270 to win the White House.
While the race is still very tight and one mistake by a candidate can shift the balance, but the way things look at this point, Trump looks like the next President of the United States.
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