WILL THE FORMER CRICKETER IMRAN KHAN BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER OF PAKISTAN?



The General Elections in Pakistan are taking place on this Wednesday, July 25, 2018. There is a good chance that Pakistan's former cricket Captain who brought the World Cup home in 1992 may become the next Prime Minister of Pakistan.

It all depends on how many seats his Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (Justice Movement) wins in the 272 seat National Assembly. The magic number required for an outright majority is 137. With Pakistan's politics splintered as it is, it is expected that no party will win outright majority. However, Khan has an edge over his opponents Pakistan Muslim League N and the Pakistan Peoples Party. Both parties have taken turns in ruling during the last ten years and are accused of massive corruption. The leader of PMLN, Mr. Nawaz Sharif has been sentenced to ten years imprisonment for having assets beyond means and income declared for tax purposes. He fell on his own sword as the Accountability Law he crafted places the burden of proof on the defendant and despite ample opportunity, was unable to provide proof of how he acquired those assets including flats in London's prestigious Park Lane. Khan's other main opponent is Mr. Asif Zardari, the leader of PPP. He too is under clouds as money laundering charges hang over his head.

Opinion polls in Pakistan are as unreliable as the polls in the West if not more. Therefore it is hard to say which party will garner how many seats. The general consensus is that Mr. Imran Khan's party is in the lead and the two major opposition parties are trending downwards. If Mr. Khan's party can win 100 seats, they will need the support of another 37 independents and or smaller parties to form a Coalition Government. However Coalition Governments are fraught with pitfalls. Mr. Khan has run on a platform of clean Government with strong accountability, but in coalition he may have to accommodate some less than savoury characters.

Overall Mr. Imran Khan has a strong brand and he attracts support of young and moderate voters. The largest increase in eligible voters since the last election in 2013 has been amongst young voters. Some estimates suggest as many as 18 million new voters have been added since 2013. This is a clear advantage for Imran Khan's PTI. His public rallies have been massive but then in Pakistan many parties can attract large crowds.

There is an air of expectation in Pakistan that people want a change from the corrupt and inept rule of Pakistan Muslim League-N and the Pakistan People's Party, both of whom have dominated political scene in Pakistan since 1988 (except for the nine years hiatus when Musharraf ruled). The economy has been run into the ground as if deliberately. Both Mr. Zardari and Mr. Sharif have ruled Pakistan particularly during last ten years with license from Washington. The infamous NRO signed by the PPP and Mr. Sharif's assurances to accept India's hegemony in the region is what has given them license to govern through rigged elections. But thanks to Mr. Trump, the United States seems to have no interest in Pakistan's internal politics. Both Zardari and Sharif now look like political orphans in the 2018 elections.

The election results should start coming in soon after 9 PM Pakistan time (4 PM GMT) on July 25. 

Is This the End of the Road for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif?

With Panama leak papers, has Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif run out of options?

Two offshore companies that were incorporated in 1993 & 1994 bought two expensive Park Lane flats which to this day as per their own admission are owned by Nawaz Sharif family. Prime Minister's three children were rather young at the time and probably had no justifiable resources to acquire such expensive properties, hence the implication that the possibly the purchase was funded by Mr. Nawaz Sharif himself!. There is a lot of noise in the country, but critical questions that arise are:

1. Where did the money come from in the first place and how was it transferred overseas
2. Is there money laundering and tax avoidance involved
3. Were the properties declared in Wealth Tax returns by Mr. Nawaz Sharif
4. Were these properties declared to Election Commission of Pakistan when Mr. Nawaz Sharif filed papers to run for office.

in 1993 & 1994 Pakistani citizens were allowed to maintain foreign currency accounts, so transfer of funds overseas may not be a violation. However source of funds and lack of declaration in income and wealth tax returns and non declaration to Election Commission are very serious offences.

Parliamentary Committee and the proposed Judicial Commission notwithstanding, these revelations are serious and require serious answers from the Prime Minister, who has tried to wiggle out of this controversy, but he now seems to be at the end of the road. He seems to have sought Mr. Asif Zardari's help but does not seem to be forthcoming or is perhaps available at too high a cost. 

Irrespective of fairness of 2013 elections, PMLN, the ruling party should complete its term. The only choice for the Prime Minister is to step aside and facilitate an in-house change i.e. another member of his party should take over as Prime Minister. If the Judicial Commission clears Mr. Nawaz Sharif of any wrong doing (which is a tall order), then he should come back and resume his position.

In this scenario who is likely to take over as Prime Minster? The ideal candidate is Mr. Shahbaz Sharif, the development minded  Chief Minister of Punjab. But he is not a Member of National Assembly, a prerequisite to be elected Prime Minister. His son could resign his National Assembly
seat and Shahbaz Sharif could then contest a by election from that seat. This process will take a couple of months, but if the Prime Minister announces he will step down in favor of his brother then the heat will die down on him. Also, Shahbaz Sharif is well regarded in Military circles, so the currently rough civil military relationship can also be reset. The Federal cabinet also needs a major overhaul and it will be good opportunity for a new Prime Minister to get rid of many of the incompetent and verbose Ministers. Also, with no Foreign Minister in place for the last three years, Foreign Policy has suffered major damage, relations with United States, Iran and India seem to be heading South and require a fresh approach and rather quickly.

The question then arises, who will take over as the Chief Minister of Punjab? The ideal candidate will be the Federal Interior Minister, Ch. Nisar Ali.



But Sharifs are not likely to give up their bastion to an outsider, so likely candidate is Shahbaz Sharif's son, who having vacated a seat in National Assembly for his father could contest from the seat his father gives up in Punjab Assembly. Thus the domain of Punjab remains in Sharif hands.

The Shahbaz Sharif option poses one major problem, It is rumored that relations between Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif are currently less than warm, so Nawaz Sharif may be reluctant to hand over power to his sibling. He will probably want to the new Prime Minister to be compliant.

There are many candidates running around hoping to be noticed, but if Shahbaz Sharif is not the option then the most logical choice is the current Speaker of National Assembly, Mr. Ayaz Sadiq.