THE STATE OF U.S. PRESIDENTAL ELECTION

        (Picture courtesy Reason.com)

Twenty-four days to go to the Presidential election on November 5, being the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Kamala Harris received a boost after Biden pulled out (or was forced out) of the race. At one point she was leading in opinion polls by 5-7%. but that was a post nomination bubble which seemed to have subsided.   to Real Clear Politics  Poll Average she is now leading by1.8% at 49% to Trump's 47.2%, i.e. a wafer thin lead and within the margin of error.

The Electoral College however, presents a different picture, where Trump leads by 219 to 215 votes with 104 votes to be decided in toss up states. Trump is leading in six of the seven states, albeit by a thin margin. But he seems to have taken the momentum back from Harris as a month ago, they were both leading in 3 states and one was a tie. The betting odds have also shifted significantly in Trump's favor  at 53.6% to Harris' 45%. The betting odds people usually have a pulse of the situation and that is why the odds have increased in Trump's favor. 

REAL CLEAR POLITICS ELECTION 2024

NATIONAL RCP AVERAGE

49.0

Harris (+1.8)

Trump

47.2

Latest National Polls

RCP ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP

219

Trump

104

Harris

215

Latest State Polls

If RCP polls are accurate, they project Trump to have 312 electoral votes to Harris' 236, a candidate needs 270 to win the White House.

While the race is still very tight and one mistake by a candidate can shift the balance, but the way things look at this point, Trump looks like the next President of the United States. 

  WILL MICHIGAN DECIDE THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE?

(Photo courtesy Yahoo.com)

For a long time Ohio was the deciding state in Presidential elections, but it seems this year the focus has changed to Michigan. Of the seven toss up states, Trump leads in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, while Harris leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan with Nevada a dead heat.

Kamala's post convention froth is settling down and she seems to be slowly losing the advantage. Her CNN interview did not help much and this while Dana Bash was soft on her and spared her tough questions. It all depends on how the respective campaigns do over the two months. The betting odds have improved in Trump's favor. Opinion polls don't involve any money, the betting odds do.

Another major challenge Democrats face is the control of Senate. Michigan has an open Senate seat after retirement of Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers is in the race against Democrat Elissa Slotkin. It is the most closely contested race. If the Republicans wins the race, it will be after 30 years in Michigan that a Republican Senator would have won a Senate seat.  It will also mean that the Republican Party could win the majority in the Senate.

(Mike Rogers, picture courtesy USA Today)

Mike Rogers is a former FBI agent, has strong views on the economy and may just upset the Senatorial equation.

 WHO WILL WIN THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

(Courtesy AP Photo)

With the Democratic National Convention over, the euphoria caused by Biden withdrawal and Harris' candidacy should soon be over. The tough questions start now. We all know who Donald Trump is and we also know his idiosyncracies, but we don't know much about Kamala Harris, she is an unklnown quantity. As Biden's VP she was virtually non-existent. She will need to move away from Biden legacy and establish her own narrative to succeed. Tough questions will be asked in media interviews and press conferences where she will be tested. However, she has done well since she replaced Joe Biden. The real test for both candidates comes in the next 73 days to November 5.

As Hillary Clinton discovered shockingly, it is not the popular vote that counts, it is the number of electoral college votes that count. There are 538 electoral college votes and the winner needs to secure 270 votes to win. If no candidate gets 270 delegates, the House of Representatives will elect a President and the Senate will elect a Vice President. Several States are already in the decided column. It is the swing states that will decide the election. The current delegate count of decided and toss up States is as follows:

                 Donald Trump                       219

                 Kamala Harris                       208

        

                 Toss Up                                 111   

                 TOTAL                                  538

So it is the Toss Up States that will decide the final outcome. Of the seven key toss-up states, Trump currently leads in five and Harris in two. This could change between now and the election date.

According to 'Real Clear Politics' Trump is likely to win 287 electoral college votes and Harris 251 votes. However, it is too soon to call as swing states tend to move back and forth. To win, the candidates have to demonstrate that they have effective economic, immigration and, financial policies. So there is a long way to go yet.