This Week with Ajaz ul Haque May 2, 2020

AFTER SPENDING A TRILLION DOLLARS, HAVING 3500 OF ITS & ALLIED SOLDIERS AND OVER 35,000 AFGHANS KILLED AND THOUSANDS MORE MAIMED, THE US LEARNS ITS LESSONS IN AFGHANISTAN

The US & Afghan Taliban sign a peace treaty in Qatar on February 29, 2020. (Picture courtesy Voice of America).

Nineteen years after launching attacks on Afghanistan to initially eliminate Al-Qaeda and later the Taliban, the US realized the futility of war which Presidents George W. Bush and Barak Obama foolishly pursued to eliminate the Taliban and from time to time even claimed false victories. Afghanistan has proved to be a graveyard of Superpowers, starting with the British, the Soviet Union and now the United States.

Better late than never. The good thing about the agreement crafted between the US & Taliban is that it calls for an orderly withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and gradual take over by Afghans. So if the Taliban do not start infighting and the Afghan Government of Ashraf Ghani does not sabotage the deal as under this agreement they will virtually lose all power, then Afghanistan may finally see peace. Although the agreement is worded ridiculously as each clause starts with 'The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban', the US already seems to have accepted a Taliban Government in Afghanistan as Part Two, Clause 5 of the agreement asks the Taliban not to issue passports or visas to certain persons as per extract below:

'Part Two:

5. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban will not provide visas, passports, travel permits, or other legal documents to those who pose a threat to the security of the United States and its allies to enter Afghanistan'.

The prospect that a thirty-one-year-old conflict may come to an end in Afghanistan which was started by the Soviet Union in 1989 and continued by warring Afghan factions and blown to a full-fledged war post 9/11 by the US, is itself a good thing. The people of Afghanistan have suffered enough at the hands of foreign invaders and at the hands of their own warlords. They deserve peace and prosperity. It is a shame that nearly one trillion dollars have been wasted on the war effort, whereas a fraction of that amount could have brought prosperity to Afghanistan. One hopes the nightmare is over for the resilient nation of Afghanistan and they can now start a march toward prosperity. 

The credit must be given to President Trump for realizing the futility of it all and putting an end to this war. Similarly, Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan and Chief of Army Staff, General Bajwa deserve credit for bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table time and again even when the accord was faltering.

MR. MODI'S BJP PARTY CRUSHED IN DELHI STATE ELECTIONS.

Arvind Kejriwal the victorious leader of AAP celebrating after his victory over BJP

(Courtesy Indian Express)

The Indian Prime Minister Mr. Naridera Modi, who not long ago had won a landslide victory in Indian national elections claimed time and again that his BJP Party will win Delhi State elections by a big margin.  But it was not to be as Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Admi Party (Common Man Party) won a landslide victory in Delhi State elections by winning 62 of 70 seats, leaving a mere 8 seats for the BJP.

This is all the more shocking as AAP's performance has been mediocre at best and just a few months ago the party had faced massive failure in national elections. AAP had made several promises in the 2015 elections when it had won 67 out of 70 seats of Delhi legislature, but its performance has been disappointing at best. Most pre-2015 elections promises have not been fulfilled, one such promise was to create 500 new schools and only 30 have been created while at the same time student enrollment has fallen by 8% during the last five years. Similarly, the AAP Government has failed on most other fronts. However, its anti-corruption stance and accessibility is popular amongst the voters.

The election results are a clear rejection of Mr. Modi's extremist policies and its recently enacted draconian laws i.e. Citizenship Amendment Act and the National Registration Act. These laws are religion-based and against the provisions of the Indian Constitution and its secular nature. Usurping Kashmir (a disputed region with Pakistan) and the perpetual lockdown of 80 million Kashmiris for six months has been denounced by moderate Indians, Amnesty International, The European Parliament, and the U.S. Congress. All these actions of the Modi Government have drawn the ire of young Indians, especially students who are demonstrating in strength in various cities across India.

Delhi State elections are an even bigger disaster for the Congress Party - India's second-largest political party, which for the second time in five years failed to win a single seat in Delhi legislature. This is an unmitigated disaster for one of India's oldest and largest political parties. Congress Party seems leaderless and the Rajiv Gandhi family seems to be unwilling to let go of its hold and allow new leadership to emerge. Its last stint in the central Government was corruption-riddled and several scandals were associated with Sonia Gandhi and her family. Congress needs to clean up its act, Rahul and Sonia Gandhi need to exit its leadership and allow bright and intelligent leaders like Shashi Tharoor and other new leaders to take over the reins of the party.

GEROGE H. W. BUSH WAS NO SAINT AS HE STARTED THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST FIASCO

George Herbert Walker Bush 1924-2018, 41st President of United States of America

A lot of nice things are being written about the recently deceased 41st President of the United States of America, whereas in fact, he is responsible for setting the Middle East on fire - and probably deliberately so.

It was his Ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie who instigated Saddam Hussain to attack Kuwait by giving Saddam a message that Kuwait was drilling Iraqi oil in the disputed region by using angular oil rigs and that "if Iraq were to make minor border adjustments, U.S. will have no objection" i.e. a clear signal to launch an attack on Kuwait. Bush's intentions probably were that Iraq will threaten Kuwait by making border adjustment and U.S. will immediately land troops in Kuwait to occupy their resources and create a permanent base. What he probably did not anticipate was that Saddam will conquer Kuwait and head towards Saudi Arabia.


Glaspie giving advice to Saddam Hussain.

After the Arab-Israeli war of 1967, Saddam's predecessor severed diplomatic relations with the U. S. Saddam took power in 1979 and adamantly refused to restore those relations for years. But in 1980, the U.S. had the better of him when under Reagan Presidency, it encouraged Saddam to attack Iran, no doubt, the craftiness of George H. W. Bush, then Vice President was behind it. A disastrous war that lasted eight years with 1.0 million dead. Saddam's fateful mistake was to succumb to U. S. bait in re-establishing diplomatic relations with the U.S. in 1984 which ended up taking his life.

In 1983, as head of CIA, George H. W. Bush organized a coup in Panama overthrowing the nationalist President and planting his own stooge Manuel Noriega, who was corrupt and a drug dealer. As soon as Bush Senior became President in 1989, he invaded Panama, kidnapped Noriega and locked him up in the United States - a first in recent history where a head of state was kidnapped by another state. He died in captivity in 2017.


Manuel Noriega 1934-2017

George H. W. Bush extensively used Bank of Credit & Commerce International (BCCI) in Iran Contra affair, in funnelling CIA money to various subversive groups in Latin America and in allowing Noriega a free hand in laundering millions of dollars with the help of BCCI as the bank's executives ferried Noriega's ill gotten and drug related money in private planes from Panama to Florida.

Whoever George H. W. Bush used while head of CIA, as Vice President or President eventually fell under his sword. The Bank of Credit & Commerce suffered such a fate as in 1991, when a phone call by George H. W. Bush to then Prime Minister, John Major saw the instant demise of BCCI within a couple of hours. BCCI was set up by the dashing Pakistani banker Mr. Agha Hassan Abedi.


Mr. Agha Hassan Abedi, the founder of Bank of Credit & Commerce International

Within a very short time, the bank arrived on the international stage and became the 7th largest bank in the world. But the egocentric Mr. Abedi ran the bank into the ground with multi-million dollar Treasury losses, money laundering and illegal loans and corruption. Had George H. W. Bush not shut it down in 1991, it would have eventually folded under its own weight.

So, despite all the nice eulogies being written, Mr. George H. W. Bush was a crafty man who initiated the events in the Middle East which have caused over 1.5 million deaths, created over five million refugees and maimed hundreds of thousands children. Had he not egged on Saddam Hussain to launch a war on Iran and subsequently invade Kuwait, both the first and second gulf wars would not happened and the death and destruction in Libya & Syria could also have been avoided.

Mr. George H. W. Bush was no saint.

PRIME MINISTER IMRAN KHAN

Newly elected Prime Minister of Pakistan

After Twenty-two years of struggle and at times a very lonely struggle, Imran Khan is finally the Prime Minister of Pakistan. A man who stood by his principles in his fight against corruption and for a fair society for his countrymen. He has finally broken the stranglehold of the two parties that have ruled Pakistan for the last thirty years.

The two party system is finally broken. Pakistan Muslim League and Pakistan People's Party during their thirty years of rule brought a culture of rampant corruption and kleptocracy. Billions of dollars were borrowed and spent on projects that offered high kickbacks, leaving the country indebted to the tune of $93 billion, some of it short-term market debt borrowed at exorbitant rates.

Incompetence and corruption of these two parties have ruined the economy of this otherwise vibrant country with an enormous potential for its 200 million people. It will be a tall order for Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Party to fix the economy on an urgent footing, make structural changes to lift the sagging industry and offer incentives to increase export in order to reduce the balance of payments deficit.

The new Government will need to bring in major reforms to the economy. Strict accountability is also desperately needed.  There are reportedly over $200 billion of Pakistani money residing in Swiss Bank accounts. It remains to be seen how much of it can be brought back to the country. Tax collection is another major problem as in a country of over 200 million, only 800,000 pay taxes. The previous government made no effort to increase tax collection as key figures in that government were probably themselves tax evaders. 

Imran Khan and his Government have a number of challenges in front of them and expectations are extremely high. However, he appears determined to make things better for the people of Pakistan and they have reposed their full confidence in him.