The ongoing unrest in Iran, almost daily demonstrations and the death of Mousavi's nephew shows that Iranian clergy is losing its stranglehold over Iran's political system.
Ever since the replacement of Shah's dictatorial rule with an even worse regime imposed by the Mullahs on Iranian public, the question has not been; will it fail, but rather when will it fail?
The Iranian public has been held hostage by religious extremists who see things only their way and no other way. The lack of tolerance, the pressure on young men to grow beards and on women to dress in a certain manner has the public looking for alternatives and freedom of expression.
The recent demonstrations could possibly have been encouraged and supported by outside players. The news coming out of Iran and carried by Western media seems to have a strange similarity to it, be it on CNN, BBC, ABC, NBC or CBS, as if the story is being fed from a single source. However genuine, many in public tend to view authenticity of such stories with some suspicion.
It was always a question of time when the Mullahs would run out of gas and Iranians would want a free and a democratic system of governance with fully restored civil liberties. It is best to let the Iranian public deal with this and not meddle with their internal affairs. Any hint of a CIA involvement in the anti Government demonstrations could backfire badly, possibly resulting in the current regime clamping down even harder and delaying the inevitable.
Friday, January 1, 2010
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
AFGHANISTAN VOTE RECOUNT IS A COMPLETE FARCE AND A FRAUD
The Afghan Presidential elections were rigged in many ways, however the vote recount is even bigger farce. It seems that EU & US representatives conducting this exercise had a pre-determined goal to bring Hamid Karzai's vote below 50% in order to call a run off election.
The two Afghan individuals involved with recount effort resigned in disgust a few days ago, when they discovered the real mandate of EU representatives. It is amazing how Mr. Karzai's vote has been brought down to 49.6% (just below 50%) to order a recount. First the elections were a farce and now the recount is an even bigger farce.
If the intention is to establish democracy and rule of law in Afghanistan, then this is a total violation of all democratic norms. The Afghan populace has no interest whatsoever in these goings on as they don't see their life changing either under Karzai or Abdullah. After all these two gentlemen have been center stage for last eight years and are responsible for the failure of Afghan civil and military administration. Efforts are now afoot by EU & US to get Karzai to form a coalition with Abdullah, a sure recipe for disaster.
In the last elections, less than 30% Afghan electorate voted and when fraudulent votes are counted out, the count is probably less than 25%. In a run off election less than 20% are likely to vote. If President Obama and Hillary Clinton are betting on this democratic move, then it is doomed to failure.
What is needed is to rescind the fraudulent elections, disqualify Karzai and Abdullah for they represent drug and crime syndicates, form a Government of national unity of all Afghan ethnic groups for a period of one year and then have fresh elections. That would allow for healing to take place in fractious Afghan society and also for new leadership to emerge. The people of Afghanistan need to be inclusive in this process, they are then likely be more involved in the democratic process.
A foreign imposed formula is only likely to bring more chaos, more ethnic rivalry and destabilization of the region resulting in foreign troops having to stay longer than they need to. Do the US public have the stomach for US forces to stay there another five years and can the US Military sustain continued war, I think not.
The two Afghan individuals involved with recount effort resigned in disgust a few days ago, when they discovered the real mandate of EU representatives. It is amazing how Mr. Karzai's vote has been brought down to 49.6% (just below 50%) to order a recount. First the elections were a farce and now the recount is an even bigger farce.
If the intention is to establish democracy and rule of law in Afghanistan, then this is a total violation of all democratic norms. The Afghan populace has no interest whatsoever in these goings on as they don't see their life changing either under Karzai or Abdullah. After all these two gentlemen have been center stage for last eight years and are responsible for the failure of Afghan civil and military administration. Efforts are now afoot by EU & US to get Karzai to form a coalition with Abdullah, a sure recipe for disaster.
In the last elections, less than 30% Afghan electorate voted and when fraudulent votes are counted out, the count is probably less than 25%. In a run off election less than 20% are likely to vote. If President Obama and Hillary Clinton are betting on this democratic move, then it is doomed to failure.
What is needed is to rescind the fraudulent elections, disqualify Karzai and Abdullah for they represent drug and crime syndicates, form a Government of national unity of all Afghan ethnic groups for a period of one year and then have fresh elections. That would allow for healing to take place in fractious Afghan society and also for new leadership to emerge. The people of Afghanistan need to be inclusive in this process, they are then likely be more involved in the democratic process.
A foreign imposed formula is only likely to bring more chaos, more ethnic rivalry and destabilization of the region resulting in foreign troops having to stay longer than they need to. Do the US public have the stomach for US forces to stay there another five years and can the US Military sustain continued war, I think not.
Monday, September 21, 2009
PRESIDENT OBAMA, DO NOT SEND MORE TROOPS TO AFGHANISTAN
The Generals are saying that without more troops war effort in Afghanistan will be lost. What they cannot visualize is that with more troops, failure will come sooner.. Many military and independent observers admit that 80% of Afghanistan is already lost to Taliban and this, after eight years of military effort!
Those of us old enough to remember early days of Vietnam war, remember well that troop levels were around 50,000 at first, then 100,000, then 250,000 and still the Generals wanted more, saying that we can only defeat the enemy if we have more troops. President Johnson listened to them and increased troop levels to over 400,000. United Sates still lost the war and to this day, hasty retreat of U.S. troops from Vietnam haunts many a mind.
Afghanistan is no different, same scenario will be played out again if troops are increased, only more American young men and women will die, more Afghans will be bombed and the resultant hatred against the U.S. will last for another 20 to 30 years. It is time to learn a lesson from history. "Nations who do not learn from past mistakes are bound to repeat them".
It is no fault of the Generals that they ask for more troops. This is what they know - have strength to fight the enemy. Generals are no politicians and it is not in their purview to think politically, that is the job of the politicians and the President.
It is still not too late to achieve a reconciliation in Afghanistan. Mullah Omar and other Taliban leaders have hinted more than once that they are willing to talk. U.S. has the means and the motive to accomplish a reconciliation. What is needed is an immediate ceasefire and a conference of all Afghan players, Northern Alliance, Hazaras, Pashtuns, Taliban and all others. U.S. and NATO should tell them that if you want foreign troops to leave, they have to reconcile and get along with each other.
Annul the Presidential elections and hold fresh elections after a peace conference so all parties can freely participate and if the people of Afghanistan want an Islamic Government, let them have one, only do not isolate them like before, so they go to bed with terrorists. Bring the new Afghan Government into the fold of international community and let them realize their responsibilities to the international community.
Afghanistan and its people have suffered a great deal in the super power rivalry. It is time this country was at peace and started rebuilding its infrastructure, an education system and created job opportunities for its young so they don't follow religious extremists. A Marshall style reconstruction plan for Afghanistan and Western part of Pakistan could change the political landscape of that part of the world and yet, it would cost a great deal less than extending the war.
President Obama, do not send more troops to Afghanistan. Start a reconciliation process in that country and bring all American troops home from Afghanistan within a year.
Those of us old enough to remember early days of Vietnam war, remember well that troop levels were around 50,000 at first, then 100,000, then 250,000 and still the Generals wanted more, saying that we can only defeat the enemy if we have more troops. President Johnson listened to them and increased troop levels to over 400,000. United Sates still lost the war and to this day, hasty retreat of U.S. troops from Vietnam haunts many a mind.
Afghanistan is no different, same scenario will be played out again if troops are increased, only more American young men and women will die, more Afghans will be bombed and the resultant hatred against the U.S. will last for another 20 to 30 years. It is time to learn a lesson from history. "Nations who do not learn from past mistakes are bound to repeat them".
It is no fault of the Generals that they ask for more troops. This is what they know - have strength to fight the enemy. Generals are no politicians and it is not in their purview to think politically, that is the job of the politicians and the President.
It is still not too late to achieve a reconciliation in Afghanistan. Mullah Omar and other Taliban leaders have hinted more than once that they are willing to talk. U.S. has the means and the motive to accomplish a reconciliation. What is needed is an immediate ceasefire and a conference of all Afghan players, Northern Alliance, Hazaras, Pashtuns, Taliban and all others. U.S. and NATO should tell them that if you want foreign troops to leave, they have to reconcile and get along with each other.
Annul the Presidential elections and hold fresh elections after a peace conference so all parties can freely participate and if the people of Afghanistan want an Islamic Government, let them have one, only do not isolate them like before, so they go to bed with terrorists. Bring the new Afghan Government into the fold of international community and let them realize their responsibilities to the international community.
Afghanistan and its people have suffered a great deal in the super power rivalry. It is time this country was at peace and started rebuilding its infrastructure, an education system and created job opportunities for its young so they don't follow religious extremists. A Marshall style reconstruction plan for Afghanistan and Western part of Pakistan could change the political landscape of that part of the world and yet, it would cost a great deal less than extending the war.
President Obama, do not send more troops to Afghanistan. Start a reconciliation process in that country and bring all American troops home from Afghanistan within a year.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
THE SHAM ELECTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN
Vote rigging, ballot box stuffing, duplicate ballots, validity and final outcome of elections in doubt, no we are not talking about Iranian elections but Afghan elections supervised by U.S. and NATO. In one District alone, not a single vote was caste and yet all 38,000 votes showed up in one candidate's column. Where is the outrage? Why are the U.S. leaders not raving and ranting about it and why is Mr. Fareed Zakaria not blowing hot and cold on CNN's GPS Program?
Before the elections, NATO's representative in charge of overseeing the elections foolishly claimed an expected 80% voter turnout. The actual number seems well below 30%. Even in India, a country with perpetual 62 year democracy and frequent election history, voter turnout has not yet reached 80%, it is usually around 60%.
Obviously NATO does not understand Afghanistan where half the population i.e. women are not allowed by their husbands/fathers to go out of their houses let alone participate in elections. This shows a complete lack of understanding of Afghan culture and realities on the ground. It begs the question, if after eight years of presence on the ground, U.S. and NATO still do not understand Afghanistan, then what are they doing there?
The West is trying to succeed in Afghanistan by pinning its hopes on two men with tainted background. Mr. Hamid Karzai's is alleged to have enriched himself through corruption and by giving free reign to his brother, reported to be the biggest drug czar in Afghanistan. Mr. Abdullah Abdullah represents the Northern Alliance, a group with criminal history. When Kabul fell during the civil war under Alliance's control for a couple of months, they looted every house, murdered many able bodied men and raped as many women as they could. Also, a component of the Alliance headed by Rashid Dostum of Mazar-e-Sharif, who after the U.S. invasion is alleged to have killed over 1,000 people by locking them in cargo containers for months on end without food or water. Mr. Abdullah Abdullah may not himself be involved in any killings, but he is supported by these criminal elements. Hoping that people like Karzai and Abdullah can bring renaissance to Afghanistan is like handing over power to the I.R.A. in Northern Ireland and the Mafia in the U.S.
Afghanistan needs reconciliation and new leadership. It needs new faces and until new leadership is developed, civility and peace is not likely return to that country. The West's efforts of nation building are doomed to failure as long as it continues to provide oxygen to leaders with criminal background in Afghanistan.
Before the elections, NATO's representative in charge of overseeing the elections foolishly claimed an expected 80% voter turnout. The actual number seems well below 30%. Even in India, a country with perpetual 62 year democracy and frequent election history, voter turnout has not yet reached 80%, it is usually around 60%.
Obviously NATO does not understand Afghanistan where half the population i.e. women are not allowed by their husbands/fathers to go out of their houses let alone participate in elections. This shows a complete lack of understanding of Afghan culture and realities on the ground. It begs the question, if after eight years of presence on the ground, U.S. and NATO still do not understand Afghanistan, then what are they doing there?
The West is trying to succeed in Afghanistan by pinning its hopes on two men with tainted background. Mr. Hamid Karzai's is alleged to have enriched himself through corruption and by giving free reign to his brother, reported to be the biggest drug czar in Afghanistan. Mr. Abdullah Abdullah represents the Northern Alliance, a group with criminal history. When Kabul fell during the civil war under Alliance's control for a couple of months, they looted every house, murdered many able bodied men and raped as many women as they could. Also, a component of the Alliance headed by Rashid Dostum of Mazar-e-Sharif, who after the U.S. invasion is alleged to have killed over 1,000 people by locking them in cargo containers for months on end without food or water. Mr. Abdullah Abdullah may not himself be involved in any killings, but he is supported by these criminal elements. Hoping that people like Karzai and Abdullah can bring renaissance to Afghanistan is like handing over power to the I.R.A. in Northern Ireland and the Mafia in the U.S.
Afghanistan needs reconciliation and new leadership. It needs new faces and until new leadership is developed, civility and peace is not likely return to that country. The West's efforts of nation building are doomed to failure as long as it continues to provide oxygen to leaders with criminal background in Afghanistan.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
US IS LOSING THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN, IN PRESENT CONDITIONS AFGHAN ELECTIONS WOULD BE MEANINGLESS AND SHOULD BE POSTPONED
US is fighting an un-winnable war in Afghanistan. They are hoping to achieve results by use of military means that neither the British Raj could in a hundred years nor the Soviets with a much larger manpower and equipment. US Military Commanders know that they are losing this war, only no one has the courage to stand up and tell it to the Administration. There are no General Shinsekis any more.
The Afghan elections due to be held in August will be meaningless under these conditions and should be postponed for at least another six months. An interim Administration comprised of impartial and moderate elements (not Zalmay Khalilzad as he will be seen as a US plant) should replace the corrupt Government of Hamid Karzai. To achieve fair and impartial elections, interim leaders must pledge not to be candidates in the elections.
It is time to bring this war to an end and settle Afghanistan politically and not militarily. Continuation of this war is destroying the entire region as Taliban cross over into Pakistan and create problems for their security forces. After initial contacts are established with Taliban there should be a cease fire under which all military activity comes to a halt. Then a conference of all Afghan players (including Taliban) should be called to discuss participation in next elections. Without stopping the war a political settlement is unlikely, so fighting will continue. After the disastrous Iraq war, US public has little capacity to stomach this war and if things continue on the present course, US will probably have to up and leave in a couple of years, leaving behind a bigger mess.
It is imperative that military activities come to an end and a political solution starts to take hold as soon as possible. It is a fallacy that Taliban can be defeated and then development can begin in Afghanistan. Taliban are not likely to be defeated so real development cannot begin. How can foreign troops hope to defeat the locals who are supported by some of the same war lords who claim to side with NATO and at the same time finance Taliban from their profitable poppy crops. The decision to allow Afghans to grow poppy (completely eradicated during Taliban rule as un Islamic) has been one of the biggest mistakes of Afghan war. More than likely Mr. Karzai and his henchmen were behind this decision, no wonder his brother is now allegedly the largest drug dealer in Afghanistan.
Nearly 50% of Afghan population is Pashtun and yet for the last five years they have not had proper representation in the Afghan Government. After the US invasion, most dominant players running the Government were from the Northern Alliance, a minority non-Pashtun group defeated by Taliban earlier. They forced their will over Hamid Karzai and virtually controlled the Government. Situation has changed somewhat since then, but still Pashtun majority does not have a fair representation.
To start an all party dialogue, it is important to bring Taliban to the table, but this will not happen under a Karzai Government. A neutral interim administration comprised of elders is much more likely to make it happen. First, the US has to realize that Taliban are inclusive and not exclusive to Afghan society, so they need to be brought to the conference table. Some Afghan elders have already shown willingness to help start this process and this should be taken advantage of.
Only a fair and impartial election with all parties participating (including Taliban) can bring a representative Government to Afghanistan. Ever since Soviet invasion in 1979 Afghanistan has been devastated by war and the country needs a major economic plan. Pakistan has also paid a heavy price for supporting and training Mujaheddin against Soviet forces and by the influx of three million Afghan refugees, one million of which still reside there. Also, influx of Afghan weapons into Pakistan since 1979 has played havoc in their society, virtually destroying law and order.
Instead of spending one hundred billion dollars on a losing war, US and NATO should create a 'Marshall, style plan for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Probably a much lower figure than the cost of war (say) $25 billion will bring massive development to both countries, creating new schools, building new roads and markets, airports etc.
Peaceful Afghanistan and Pakistan can start building oil and gas pipelines from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to the Arabian sea away past the Straits of Hormuz to ensure safe and unlimited supply of oil and gas to US, Europe, and the Far East in addition to meeting energy needs of these two countries.
The Afghan elections due to be held in August will be meaningless under these conditions and should be postponed for at least another six months. An interim Administration comprised of impartial and moderate elements (not Zalmay Khalilzad as he will be seen as a US plant) should replace the corrupt Government of Hamid Karzai. To achieve fair and impartial elections, interim leaders must pledge not to be candidates in the elections.
It is time to bring this war to an end and settle Afghanistan politically and not militarily. Continuation of this war is destroying the entire region as Taliban cross over into Pakistan and create problems for their security forces. After initial contacts are established with Taliban there should be a cease fire under which all military activity comes to a halt. Then a conference of all Afghan players (including Taliban) should be called to discuss participation in next elections. Without stopping the war a political settlement is unlikely, so fighting will continue. After the disastrous Iraq war, US public has little capacity to stomach this war and if things continue on the present course, US will probably have to up and leave in a couple of years, leaving behind a bigger mess.
It is imperative that military activities come to an end and a political solution starts to take hold as soon as possible. It is a fallacy that Taliban can be defeated and then development can begin in Afghanistan. Taliban are not likely to be defeated so real development cannot begin. How can foreign troops hope to defeat the locals who are supported by some of the same war lords who claim to side with NATO and at the same time finance Taliban from their profitable poppy crops. The decision to allow Afghans to grow poppy (completely eradicated during Taliban rule as un Islamic) has been one of the biggest mistakes of Afghan war. More than likely Mr. Karzai and his henchmen were behind this decision, no wonder his brother is now allegedly the largest drug dealer in Afghanistan.
Nearly 50% of Afghan population is Pashtun and yet for the last five years they have not had proper representation in the Afghan Government. After the US invasion, most dominant players running the Government were from the Northern Alliance, a minority non-Pashtun group defeated by Taliban earlier. They forced their will over Hamid Karzai and virtually controlled the Government. Situation has changed somewhat since then, but still Pashtun majority does not have a fair representation.
To start an all party dialogue, it is important to bring Taliban to the table, but this will not happen under a Karzai Government. A neutral interim administration comprised of elders is much more likely to make it happen. First, the US has to realize that Taliban are inclusive and not exclusive to Afghan society, so they need to be brought to the conference table. Some Afghan elders have already shown willingness to help start this process and this should be taken advantage of.
Only a fair and impartial election with all parties participating (including Taliban) can bring a representative Government to Afghanistan. Ever since Soviet invasion in 1979 Afghanistan has been devastated by war and the country needs a major economic plan. Pakistan has also paid a heavy price for supporting and training Mujaheddin against Soviet forces and by the influx of three million Afghan refugees, one million of which still reside there. Also, influx of Afghan weapons into Pakistan since 1979 has played havoc in their society, virtually destroying law and order.
Instead of spending one hundred billion dollars on a losing war, US and NATO should create a 'Marshall, style plan for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Probably a much lower figure than the cost of war (say) $25 billion will bring massive development to both countries, creating new schools, building new roads and markets, airports etc.
Peaceful Afghanistan and Pakistan can start building oil and gas pipelines from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to the Arabian sea away past the Straits of Hormuz to ensure safe and unlimited supply of oil and gas to US, Europe, and the Far East in addition to meeting energy needs of these two countries.
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